Post1: even something with a "chance" that seems "very small" to us (thinking on a human time-scale) can still easily occur when given billions of years.
Post2: There is a 1 in 14 billion chance that somebody will win the lottery, but it happens most weeks. Explain that. As there are only 60,000,000 people in the country, and not all buy a ticket, it should be impossible.
Actual odds: 1 chance in 10 for a random mutation to happen. 100 changes needed to make a new protein or function that can be selected. Odds are 1/10 times 1/10 for 100 multiplications or 1 chance in a googol.
One would need Billions of Billions of universes to have enough particles to equal a googol. In time scale, this is not billions of years, but an eternity. If one then tries to consider a 3 billion line strand of dna, then the probability is infinitesimally small. It is not probable. This is not using actual probabilities, but very favorable 1 chance in 10.
Any element of chance is unlikely.
2006-10-25
04:07:04
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13 answers
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Cogito Sum
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Religion & Spirituality