does probability really work out in real life? of course, in a lottery or rolling dice, if you havent rolled a 6, just because your rolled a 1,2,3,4, and 5 on the last 5 tries doesnt make it any more likely to get a 6 on the 6th try since its random supposedly. so how can we really apply this to actual life scenarios,
for instance the probability of the next terrorist attack. now we have a good idea that one is inevitable, but of course that could be wrong, we might never experience another for the rest of our lives, then again thats not really a good bet... but we havent really seen anything since 9/11/01, so with every passing day doesnt the likelihood of a new terrorist attack become more likely? is this even applicable to probability considering the differnt factors at work (ie terrorist fundraising, planning, training, foiled plans by the authorities) that take time and would explain why we havent been unfortunate enough to witness another attack? can someone explain?
2007-09-07
09:48:35
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