You have 3 doors (door A, door B, door C). Behind one of the doors there is a car. There is a goat behind the other two.
First trial:
You pick door A. The gamemaster opens door C disclosing a goat. According to Monty Hall’s theorem, you choose to open door B to improve your probabilities from 1/3 to 2/3 to get the car.
So, here we have door A with a probability of 1/3 and door B with probability of 2/3.
Second trial:
You pick door B. The gamemaster opens door C disclosing a goat. According to Monty Hall you now choose to open door A to improve your probability from 1/3 to 2/3 to get the car.
So, here we have door A with probability of 2/3 and door B with probability of 1/3.
So, the Player has influenced the probability of getting the car behind a given door simply by the sequence of his first picking a door.
Can you explain this paradox? Best answer will be awarded to the clearest and most convincing explanation.
2006-12-27
04:51:46
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9 answers
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asked by
Gaetan
3
in
Mathematics