My brother-in-law, who is 18 and too smart for his own good, keeps telling everyone that the probability for any situation is 50/50. For example, if you ask him "will the Saints win the superbowl," his answer is, it's 50/50--which ignores the fact that they haven't gotten there. He says this is because either they will win or they will lose.
At nearly twice his age I am constantly frustrated with this line of reasoning, but am at a loss to explain why it is so wrong. Does it have to do with mutual exclusivity and probability? Help.
2007-01-02
04:52:59
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13 answers
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asked by
subhuman
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