The twelve categories are broken into five defensive statistics, four offensive and three overall. The winning percentage for each of the categories is based on how often that category favored the eventual Super Bowl winner. The chart below shows all of the percentages.
Now let's look at Super Bowl XLI:
Category Winning Percentage Team with Advantage
Rushing Yards / Attempt .550 Colts
Rushing Yards .550 Bears
Opponent Net Passing Yards .550 Colts
Points Scored .588 Tie
Opponent Rushing Yards / Attempt .600 Bears
Fewer Net Passing Yards .600 Bears
Turnover Differential .625 Bears
Opponent Rushing Yards .625 Bears
Point Differential .663 Bears
Regular Season Record .688 Bears
Opponent Total Yards / Game .700 Bears
Points Allowed .713 Bears
The Bears take the last eight categories, which are the best predictors, all at 60% or better. Of those eight, five are defensive, which confirms the adage: Defense wins championships. Overall, the Bears take nine categories and the Colts only two, with one tie. There have been 18 occasions where the system favored one of the teams with nine or more categories. That team has won 15 times.
2007-01-24
02:00:42
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18 answers
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diggittey
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