The twelve categories are broken into five defensive statistics, four offensive and three overall. The winning percentage for each of the categories is based on how often that category favored the eventual Super Bowl winner. The chart below shows all of the percentages.
Now let's look at Super Bowl XLI:
Category Winning Percentage Team with Advantage
Rushing Yards / Attempt .550 Colts
Rushing Yards .550 Bears
Opponent Net Passing Yards .550 Colts
Points Scored .588 Tie
Opponent Rushing Yards / Attempt .600 Bears
Fewer Net Passing Yards .600 Bears
Turnover Differential .625 Bears
Opponent Rushing Yards .625 Bears
Point Differential .663 Bears
Regular Season Record .688 Bears
Opponent Total Yards / Game .700 Bears
Points Allowed .713 Bears
The Bears take the last eight categories, which are the best predictors, all at 60% or better. Of those eight, five are defensive, which confirms the adage: Defense wins championships. Overall, the Bears take nine categories and the Colts only two, with one tie. There have been 18 occasions where the system favored one of the teams with nine or more categories. That team has won 15 times.
2007-01-24 02:00:42 · 18 answers · asked by diggittey 3 in Sports ➔ Football (American)
I believe the bears took 11 catagories during the Saints game...hmmmm
Da Bearssssssss
2007-01-24 02:21:57 · answer #1 · answered by dave k 3 · 1⤊ 4⤋
All the statistics in the world can't accurately predict the result of a football game. You can come up with odds through the statistics, but that is different than a true "prediction." Basically, everything you have here may be true, but there is nothing you can do to predict the human element. If Grossman has a crappy game, or if one of your running backs fumbles at a key point, or the defense has an off game (and they have had a few this year), or if Urlacher gets hurt in the first quarter, or if Peyton Manning has the game of his life, then you're out of luck.
Besides that, your categories leave out some important information, like the fact that the NFC kind of sucks. You played the Vikings, Lions, and Packers twice each. That right there is going to effect the statistics in a way that will appear favorable to your team. In any case, the two teams had different schedules, different circumstances, and many different factors that affected their stats at different times, favorably or infavorably. In the end, there is only one thing that matters: how they play in the Super Bowl. You can't predict that.
Don't get me wrong! I think the Bears have as good of a chance as the Colts. I'm just saying that the stats you are presenting are interesting, but meaningless in a single winner-take-all game like this. The "defense wins championships" argument is sorry and old, because there have been many exceptions to that "rule," and the only defense that matters is the one that plays in the final game. Those stats you give are done and gone. Good luck, though! I'm a NFC Central kind of guy, so I hope the Bears win. I'm just not dumb enough to call my man in Vegas over it.
2007-01-24 02:20:33 · answer #2 · answered by Mr. Taco 7 · 0⤊ 0⤋
No numbers can determine a sure winner. If that was the case Vegas would not exist. All you would have to do take the numbers and figure them out and bam your instantly into "Risk Free" money. Take a look back to the old AFL NFL days. When the KC Chiefs beat the Minnesota Vikings that was an upset no one thought that could happen. Or when Joe Namath Called out his Victory his team was an underdog as well. What about the Pittsburgh Steelers a wildcard team, the first wild card team to win a Superbowl, went all the way.
Numbers are just that, numbers. The games are played because they need to be played if numbers determined who wins, why even play the game. Just remember "That's why they play they game."
2007-01-24 02:12:02 · answer #3 · answered by Fantasy Handbook 2 · 1⤊ 0⤋
Statistics don't mean a freaking thing! They PLAY the games, not predict their outcome! I've seen many games in my life that were mismatches on paper, but were won by the underdog because of the "human" factors such as heart, disdain of the stronger for the weaker, and etc. There's no way statistics can provide any more results than playing the game, for in each conclusion there can only be a winner and a loser. Result, 50% odds of "choosing" correctly. Sure, one can "make odds" or point spreads against a team, but the ODDS are still 50% that the favorite will cover or not cover!
2007-01-24 03:20:35 · answer #4 · answered by bigvol662004 6 · 0⤊ 0⤋
As I recall Accuscore was the only thing that picked the Bears to beat the Saints...aside from fans that is. Everyone on ESPN, Inside the NFL, and pretty much all other sites had New Orleans going to Miami...but guess who's going.
Same thing in the Super Bowl. Everyone has the Colts dominating and the TV people want it that way. Offense builds ratings and Manning brings the offense. Defense wins championships though, so I'll agree with your assessment... Bears with the greatest Super Bowl upset since the Pats brought it to the greatest show on turf in '01.
2007-01-24 02:48:46 · answer #5 · answered by crazyhorse3477 3 · 1⤊ 1⤋
Here is a system which ALSO works practically EVERY time:
Coach: COLTS
Quarterback: COLTS
Offence: COLTS
Defence: BEARS
Special Teams: BEARS
Playoff Experience: COLTS
You have done a lot of homework and I congratulate both the Chicago fans and the Bears team on a great year, but the Colts have already taken out two teams that were better than the Bears during these playoffs! The SB will be over by half time.............
Final Score - - - - Colts 43 - Bears 12
2007-01-24 02:33:06 · answer #6 · answered by Gina M 2 · 0⤊ 2⤋
It looks like you put a lot of work into this. However, for every statistic that favors one team, you can find a statistic that equally favors the other. Some of those statistics may be more obscure than those you have listed, such as 'Peyton Manning has never lost a game in South Florida dating back to his college days'. I don't know if that is true, but I'm using it as an example. The point is that there are always factors that you can't count on.
If it were that easy, they wouldn't need to play the games.
2007-01-24 02:07:05 · answer #7 · answered by kungfufighter20002001 3 · 0⤊ 0⤋
not really because it doesn't take opponents into account. The Bears had a really easy schedule. Also, the only way they tie w/the Colts is because Devin Hester accounts directly for 35 of those points (well, technically 30. but everyone assumes extrapoints are good) and indirectly for nearly all of the rest due to the great field position he provides, but he hasn't been super hot durring the post season (though Colt's ST aren't spectacular). You can use stats to analyze a game, but you can't use them to predict one. It all comes down to their respective performances on Sunday.
2007-01-24 02:13:52 · answer #8 · answered by Andy T 4 · 1⤊ 0⤋
Honestly I couldn't care less, both of theses teams are very lucky to even be in this game, the colts happen to get hot at the right time so they got in and the bears are in the nfc so it was pretty much a coin flip who was winning over there, pretty much whoever had the best game, it wouldn't have surprised me to see the cowboys in the super bowl if their QB could have held onto the ball.
2007-01-24 02:38:44 · answer #9 · answered by Jeran 2 · 0⤊ 2⤋
The Bears played mostly NFC teams, that is a profound difference that isn't pointed out in your study.
2007-01-24 02:11:36 · answer #10 · answered by ? 5 · 2⤊ 0⤋