2007-01-23 23:36:46 · 20 answers · asked by ktownandrew@sbcglobal.net 1 in Sports ➔ Football (American)
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2007-01-24 11:40:24 · answer #1 · answered by Anonymous · 2⤊ 0⤋
Who will win Super Bowl XLI?
January 23, 2007
As I discussed last week, there's a system that I've been using for the past 16 years that has correctly predicted the Super Bowl winner 14 times. It involves 12 predictors that each successfully predict the Super Bowl winner roughly 55 to 70 percent of the time, but taken together they work even better. Last year, for the first time in those 16 years, we had to go to the tie-breaker when the categories were tied 6-6 between the Steelers and Seahawks ( Can you predict the Super Bowl winner?).
The twelve categories are broken into five defensive statistics, four offensive and three overall. The winning percentage for each of the categories is based on how often that category favored the eventual Super Bowl winner. The chart below shows all of the percentages.
Now let's look at Super Bowl XLI:
Category Winning Percentage Team with Advantage
Rushing Yards / Attempt .550 Colts
Rushing Yards .550 Bears
Opponent Net Passing Yards .550 Colts
Points Scored .588 Tie
Opponent Rushing Yards / Attempt .600 Bears
Fewer Net Passing Yards .600 Bears
Turnover Differential .625 Bears
Opponent Rushing Yards .625 Bears
Point Differential .663 Bears
Regular Season Record .688 Bears
Opponent Total Yards / Game .700 Bears
Points Allowed .713 Bears
The Bears take the last eight categories, which are the best predictors, all at 60% or better. Of those eight, five are defensive, which confirms the adage: Defense wins championships. Overall, the Bears take nine categories and the Colts only two, with one tie. There have been 18 occasions where the system favored one of the teams with nine or more categories. That team has won 15 times.
The system leans significantly towards the Bears winning their first Super Bowl in 21 years.
2007-01-24 01:53:18 · answer #2 · answered by diggittey 3 · 2⤊ 1⤋
I think Chicago will win. I think a lot of people are too hard on Grossman, especially those who only see a few games. Over the course of the season the offensive line was having trouble giving him protection, which is what caused his poor-decision making. He throws the ball very well, and he doesn't need to be stellar to win the game. Peyton, on the other hand, has to be PERFECT against a defense that will be hungry to get at a QB legend. If peyton can avoid the mistakes he made in the first two playoff games, then it will be a close game. Otherwise, look for Chicago's defense to dominate him into throwing INTs, making even Good-Enough Rex a Superbowl champion. As he well deserves. There is arguably no one else in the league who has had to deal with as much scutiny and criticism than him all season long, only to go out on the field and have all the nay-sayers still scratching their heads.
Defensively, The Bears win out hands-down. No other defense in the league has produced as many turnovers, which is gonna be key in this game. The Colts, meanwhile, have struggled all season on defending the run, but lately they've picked it up some with the return of Sanders. Still, though, the mathcups to watch out for will be Urlacher-Manning, and Sanders and Co. versus Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. The bears have NEVER relied on the QB, which is why i find it odd how Grossman has been criticized as the downfall of this super team.
You also forget that Rex played Florida, as did Alex Brown, and they'll have all of Gator nation at their disposal. Hester also grew up by Miami and attended, and excelled as a returner with Miami, so it is a true blue Homecoming this game. Ogunleye played with the Dophins, so, while its not "Bear Weather," i don't think it will matter too much.
Everyone forgets Peyton's stats in his first complete season (which Grossman JUST finished).
Manning threw 575 times, and connected on 326 of them with a 56.7 completion rate, passing for 3,739 yards with 26 touchdowns...but more interceptions - 28. He finished with a 73.9 QB rating.
Rex, on the other hand, threw less times for less yards, throwing 480, and connected on 262 of them, giving him about the same completion percentage (54.7). He finished with 3193 yds - not much less than Peyton, but had more TDs than INTs - something Peyton didn't do. Grossman threw 23 TDs and only 20 INTs - 3 less Touchdowns, but 8 less INTs.
Peyton's Colts finished 3-13 that year. The Bears finished 13-3.
Everybody needs to cut Rex some slack. The Bears can win without him, though i know they'll win bigger WITH him. The colts need to be PERECT on both sides of the ball. The Bears have more breathing room than you think. Bears by 3.
And i'm from Chicago. But i explained everything, so i'm not just some diehard fan spouting nonsense. I know i may be biased...but a lot of what i've stated is general observations.
Its gonna be a good game - whatever team wins, i doubt it'll be a blowout. GO BEARS!
2007-01-24 02:36:14 · answer #3 · answered by Aidan316 2 · 0⤊ 1⤋
Home of SuperBowl 41, Miami, Florida. Colts take it. The best player on the field is their quaterback!
2007-01-24 04:05:48 · answer #4 · answered by johumga73 2 · 1⤊ 0⤋
I think both teams are evenly matched. I want NO to win because I think the state could use a huge emotional boost. However, I live in Minnesota, so I live in the Central Division, same as Chicago.
I predict that Chicago will win because I think they have a crazy bout of luck going. However, if either team wins I'll be happy.
2007-01-23 23:47:22 · answer #5 · answered by ME 4 · 1⤊ 2⤋
I hail from Virginia and I think the teams are very evenly matched. However, there is a very long standing statistic that says no team that plays at home in a domed stadium has ever won the Superbowl. Therefore, I'd go with the Bears.
2007-01-24 00:21:47 · answer #6 · answered by Queen of Cards 4 · 1⤊ 2⤋
FROM TEXAS - I'm pulling for Manning and the colts but I think the bears are going to pull it out. The d-fense is awesome and if manning has an average game.. then game over. The patriots held the colts in check for quite a while and their D is average... although the corners did an out standing job.
2007-01-24 00:23:32 · answer #7 · answered by Anonymous · 4⤊ 1⤋
I'm from Michigan and I believe the Bears will find a way to win like they've done all year long. But who knows.... anyone can win/lose on any given Sunday!!
2007-01-24 01:09:06 · answer #8 · answered by Michael D 2 · 0⤊ 1⤋
I am from North Carolina and I predict the Colts will win because they have a quarterback and not some idiot that relies on flukes to get the job done. Sometimes the best team doesn't win. Funny how that has been the case for Chicago all season.
2007-01-23 23:42:51 · answer #9 · answered by Calill C 6 · 1⤊ 4⤋
The Colts will prevail 28-17
Efrain Fajardo,PR
2007-01-26 01:01:40 · answer #10 · answered by cariduro1964 2 · 0⤊ 0⤋
arizona and the Colts will win all the way baby! bears are worse than anyone in the AFC - they would lose to the raiders by 7, they wouldn't even score against them
btw the bears defense is horrific they will give up 42 to the colts
2007-01-24 01:07:57 · answer #11 · answered by Beast8981 5 · 0⤊ 2⤋