Are "skeptical" meteorologists examples of Clarke's first law?

Question

A large number of the "skeptics" are older meteorologists. They have no good explanation for the rise in temperature (which they admit to be true). They simply say it's impossible to predict climate.

They range from the very distinguished hurricane expert, William Gray, to a former TV weatherman. Since they know the weather cannot be predicted years in advance, they think climate is the same deal.

Arthur C. Clarke understands this situation well. Clarke's first law is:

"When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong."

The meteorologists just don't grasp that science could be different than their experience.

The all time classic example of Clarke's first law is a military expert, who famously said in 1945:

""The atomic bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert in explosives."

Jello - Here's all the facts about global warming you cold possibly want. Taken straight from the peer reviewed literature.

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Climate_Change_Attribution.png
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html
summarized at:
http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6290228.stm

Good websites for more facts from the literature:

http://profend.com/global-warming/
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/
http://www.realclimate.org
"climate science from climate scientists"
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn11462

KEITH C - The swindle video is bogus. The British press tore it apart.

"A Channel 4 documentary claimed that climate change was a conspiratorial lie. But an analysis of the evidence it used shows the film was riddled with distortions and errors."

http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/climate_change/article2355956.ece

"Pure Propaganda"

"The science might be bunkum, the research discredited. But all that counts for Channel 4 is generating controversy."

http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,2032572,00.html

As did scientists.

http://www.durangobill.com/Swindle_Swindle.html

You seem like a conservative. You might want to consider this:

"Former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich challenged fellow conservatives to stop resisting scientific evidence of global warming"

"National Review (the most prestigious conservative magazine) published a cover story this past week calling on conservatives to shake off denial and get into the climate policy debate"

Answer 1

Interesting observation. True, undoubtedly. Have you cataloged the various skeptics and figured what percentage fit this category?

Historically, when new scientific information becomes available, it is the reactionary institutions and their dogmatic followers who

"follow the words of others, because these words fit in with what they already believe and their own personal perceptions, not because of objective scientific facts."

Where are the new, objective, scientific facts of the deniers?

"[Peer Review] is an undisputed cornerstone of modern science. Central to the competitive clash of ideas that moves knowledge forward, peer review enjoys so much renown in the scientific community that studies lacking its imprimatur meet with automatic skepticism."

Answer 2

I think few will disagree that we have had a few years of warmer weather.
The real question is, is this a condition caused by man or just a another part of the earths "long" term weather cycle.
Just a few years ago in the late 70's and early 80's the same scientist were warning us to prepare for global ice age.
Besides, warming is not always such a bad thing in the past Britten and most of the United States was under 500 feet of ice.

Answer 3

And certain well meaning Spanish scientists told Christopher Columbus that it was impossible to sail around the world as he would sail off the edge of the world and never be able to get back.

Answer 4

Actually they do have good evendence, watch "the Great Global warming swindle" by the BBC on you tube


Man made Global warming is a Religion you have to have a lot of faith to believe in that crap. Wasn't it global cooling 20 years ago? GLOBAL WARMING IS HUMANITIES GREATEST LIE!!!

Most of the socalled scientest that signed the UN report, did not agree that man made global warming is real, but there names were added anyway. This includes the Chairman of the IAEA. Global warming is an industry. say you support it and get funding say you dont NO funding go figure

Answer 5

I don't know about you but nowadays they give out weather forecasts for 7 days and they are pretty accurate. I think forecast and prediction have the same meaning.

Answer 6

Nobody likes to see their life's work become obsolete but it's and unfortunate reality.

Bob if I may, one should always include the Stern Review in their links provided to educate a climate denier.
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/Independent_Reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternreview_index.cfm

Oh look sombody else got swindled
I
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Answer 7

You have to be pretty naive to believe that because some old scientists has doubts about our present state of knowledge and our ability to predict the future, that younger more inexperienced people must be right. It makes no logical sense and it is certainly not scientific. It is important to understand what you know and what you don't know. I suspect Dr. Grey has a far greater understanding of what is not known. As for Arthur Clark, I believe he moved to Sri Lanka so he could molest little boys so his thought process is not one that I respect.

Answer 8

Huh I'd never heard that law, but it's quite clearly applicable to this situation.

I thought the exact same thing back when the skeptics were making a big deal about Reid Bryson. Remember him? They proclaimed him to be "the father of scientific climatology" and concluded that his skepticism of anthropogenic global warming (he called it "hooey") was the final nail in the theory's coffin.

Of course, the man is now 87 years old, his degree is in meteorology, and he hasn't done any research in over a decade. My first thought when I read his statements and background were "this guy is simply out of touch with modern science".

Arthur C. Clarke and his first law conclude the same thing.

Answer 9

I think global warming is a very selective science.

Some people say that we should believe people like Pat Robertson (very conservative Christian leader) because he said - 'It is getting hotter and the ice caps are melting and there is a build up of carbon dioxide in the air. We really need to do something on fossil fuels.”

Pat Roberson also believes that God created the Earth in seven days, and created man and woman.

Do you believe Pat Roberson's idea that God created Earth as well, or do you just choose what we believe because of our own personal beliefs and perceptions?

I see many believing in global warming because they follow the words of others, because these words fit in with what they already believe and their own personal perceptions, not because of objective scientific facts.

[Edit] Bob - Peer review is a very low standard. It's just asking like minded people if they agree with you.

Answer 10

Go Bob !!! There will be no prisoners taken in this fight.