Global Warming: What is this CONSENSUS?

Question

OK, I am asking for an Idiot's Guide.

When people talk about a Consensus on Global Warming, how do they define consensus?

How many people? Who? What %? When is it a Consensus when talking about Global Warming?

Answer 1

There's no hard and fast definition as to what constitutes a consensus in respect of global warming, just as there isn't in respect of any other issue.

A consensus just means that there's a general agreement with no sizable dissent and little or no objection. This is what we see within the scientific community in respect of global warming, hence it is often said that there is a scientific consensus.

As to the number of people - very hard to say. The skeptics of global warming quite often point out that 18,000 scientists oppose the theory of manmade global warming and have chosen to sign a petition against it*, this indicates that the reamining 59,982,000 sceintists have chosen not to sign it. If this figure is an accurate reflection of the scientific community then the consensus in this case is 99.97%.

Within the scientific community it's generally accepted that 99.9%+ of climate scientists acknowledge global warming and that 99%+ of all scientists acept it. If the consensus is measured in respect of scientific organisations and professional bodies then it's a 100% consensus.


* The petition, when first written, was opposing the US signing the Kyoto Protocol. After obtaining the signatures the wording of the petition was changed. Since it became a petition against global warming the number of signatories has fallen as people have objected to misrepresentation etc.

Answer 2

Technically, a consensus means, according to Merriam Webster's dictionary,

1 a: general agreement : b: the judgment arrived at by most of those concerned
2: group solidarity in sentiment and belief

Meaning 5 people could say that 2+2=5 and there would be a consensus. And say these 5 people were to fund millions of scientists to fudge data and lie to kids learning math and ostracize nonbelievers, then there would be as much proof that Global Warming is caused by humans as 2+2 being 5. You can't prove that 2+2 is not 5. Nor can the best mathematician at Harvard.

Food for thought.

Answer 3

Well first it's important to define the consensus regarding global warming. The consensus is that humans are the primary cause of the current warming and that it will cause climate change which will have very adverse effects on the species of our planet if we don't stop it or at least slow it down.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/just-what-is-this-consensus-anyway/

The consensus is not really defined by a specific percentage of scientist. It basically means 'the vast majority'. Climate scientists know that almost all of their colleagues agree on the consensus as described above, so they call it a 'consensus'.

The IPCC forms a consensus like so:

"Finally, for each sentence, the Co-chair asks if there are any more comments: when no delegation raises its flag, consensus is reached and the sentence can be approved. In this way the whole SPM will be approved."

http://www.ipcc.ch/press/ar4-factsheet2.htm

Answer 4

My Geology professor said about 99% of the scientific community (all the active scientists in America) agree that global warming is a serious issue. Then you have the small percent that are paid to disagree, who happen to make it on the news more often than the "consensus" of scientists.

Answer 5

My guess with people with scientific degrees would be that about 60% at least would support a general consensus that the world is getting warmer.

Answer 6

Exactly. This is purely arbitrary. Some define a consensus as a group of like minded people. This then changes on a persons own views.

Science is not about a consensus. Only politics requires a consensus.

Answer 7

This 'consensus' is often cited, but never really establised. For every qualified scientist who claims we are the main cause of recent warming I can find you one who says we aren't.

To answer one of your questions, defining consensus: Those who believe in global warming are separated and polled. 100% of those people believe in global warming, therefore they have a consensus.

Answer 8

artists look at gobal warming which means less snow in the winter months hotter and drier summer months

Answer 9

global warming is a political football, it ain't happening

Answer 10

hi you top contributer-
the statistics is always misguiding and do not go by the % figure.