Anyone have any guess when this HD format war will end?

Question

I was edging on picking up a blu-ray, but have been swayed to HD DVD when they went under $100 with 5 free DVDs.

Still haven't picked one up as I don't want to buy movies in a format that will be unsupported in a few years.

I looked at sales year to date using amazon and it is 40% HD DVD(1.8 million) and 60% BD (3million) with HD DVD climbing.

I just wish this would end so I can feel confident jumping in. I bought one of those gen DVD players, but there really wasn't a debate over standards for them - just whether or not it would succeed in killing vhs... which it did.

Answer 1

The war will likely be decided when Warner abandon Blu-Ray or HD DVD in Q1 2008.

Having said that both formats are likely to remain around for quite some time ... but as niche formats like SACD and DVD-A in the audio world.

The problem is that HD disks do not provide enough benefit to justify the high cost over normal DVDs on an upscaling player.

Furthermore, with only 14% of US households having HDTV ... and many of those being too small, sub-1080p, or without HDMI inputs to benefit from Blu-ray or HD DVD the market (once consumers recognize the limitations their current equipment represents) will be limited to about 7-10% of household for quite some time.

Add to that the inroads downloadable movies will make (particulalry if non-1080p (most people can't benefit from 1080p, but 720p is another story) HD movies become practical through, for example, better codecs) and HD disks are definitely fated for a limited penetration for, at best, several years.

The poor US economic situation, preference for convenience over quality (e.g. MP3 over CD, SACD or DVD-A) -- in this case download vs disk -- reluctance to buy expensive equipment, etc. will all help ensure this.

So ... if you want to try HD disks (assuming you have the equipment to benefit) you would be wise to buy HD DVD -- it is the better format for serious movies (leave Blu-ray ... largely Disney and animation .. for the kids. They who don't care that much about HD) and costs so little if Blu-Ray "wins" it will make a good upscaling DVD player for the existing library of DVDs that won't be dissappearing for at least 5 -10 years (given the massive proportion of consumers that have no interest in HD, now or for a long time to come.

Answer 2

The "format war" is why the player prices have dropped so fast and why movie studios are in competition to get their titles out.

You should be thankful there is competition to help push things along.

I remember spending $480 for my first DVD player. Now I can get both a BluRay and HD-DVD for less than that.

It is going to be several years before either format disappears. You can wait on the sidelines for the 'safe' choice, or jump into it with both feet and enjoy the ride.

Answer 3

again too early to tell.