Arctic Ice Gone By The End Of The Century?

Question

Computer models by the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) including the Canadian Centre for Climate Analysis (CCCMA) and Institute of Ocean Sciences (IOS) project the Arctic ice vanishing early in this century.

But after the computer models are corrected to remove specific biases, the computer models project that the Arctic ice will decrease, just slightly and will not vanish.

I wonder why some need to raise the specter of fear? Is it just because they actually believe the world is coming to an end, guilt for being alive, or the desire to control others under the guise of saving them?

http://www.planetwater.ca/research/AIM/AIM.html

Bob - I love your science. When presented with two or more sets of conflicting data, toss out the ones that don't agree with your current position.

Answer 1

Examining your link, we find (a) this is one of FIFTEEN models of arctic ice; (b) the model predict that arctic ice won't disappear before 2050 -- but says nothing about any time after that; (c) the actual minimum extent of sea ice ice in 2007 (4.13 km^2) is about midway between the "corrected" and "uncorrected" scenarios of this model; (d) I don't see anywhere on this page anyone "raising the specter of fear".

Answer 2

You are right, there is no reason to raise the spector of fear, since it is just a fact. In addition to this, consider this: The ice in the artctic oceans and around Antarctica displaces the water in the ocean, right? So, doesn't it make sense that, if it melts, it can't raise the sea level that much? How much denser than sea water is ice, will it expand so much when it melts that it will cause a rise in the sea level?

The real thing that it worrisome is the melting of the glaciers and the ice caps on Greenland and Antarctica. In recent documentaries, people who are just recording the facts are recording the never before melting and disappearing of glaciers that exist on top of these land masses. When these millions of gallons of water enter the oceans for the first time in thousands of years, that is what will raise the sea level and that is what is causing the fear among the millions who live in major coastal cities and along coastlines of the world. It isn't that the world is coming to an end, but it is conceivable that the world will be radically changed in this century.

Answer 3

Your quest for a psychological explanation for the ice caps melting may be over complicating the picture. The one thing we can all agree on is that the melting is occurring far faster than predicted by any computer model. I for one see no reason to expect that trend to suddenly reverse based on another computer model. Because we have never observed this before, new factors not included in previous models constantly turn up. The most interesting one recently was the discovery that as they melt, the icecaps in Greenland and Antarctica become detached from their underlying land mass, and begin sliding toward the sea (about a meter and a half per hour in the case of Greenland). That gives an observed rate of melting faster than predicted by a factor of around ten.

Answer 4

Almost half of Canada`s PERMANENT ICE has disappeared this year.The more ice disappears the quicker it melts.If we get the same weather in 2008 as we had this year, all of the Canadian ice pack could be gone by this time next year.The report is optimistic.1,000,000 square km of the polar ice cap is gone since 2005.Canada lost 3,000,000 square km of PERMANENT ICE just in first 2 weeks of SeptemberThere is less nath 4,000,000square km left.

Answer 5

I don't know why everyone is rushing to be the first to compute doomsday. I think it's enough to gather good, solid data that small changes are occuring that may need to be dealt with. Every time people change their data analysis from a "total catastrophe in 20 years" to a "still bad but not as bad as we originally thought", they've just lost more of the public's trust. If you try and get people worked up with fear of looming destruction, you'll find it turns to anger really quickly if you don't have infallible evidence to back it up.

Answer 6

It's called a Knee Jerk Response.

Still, it's better to see a problem and find solutions to it rather than saying "Ah! Taint no big deal."

While some may go to extremes, others, probably like yourself, see things more clearly and thus are in a better position to do something real about the problem rather than ban all carbon emissions.

The earth has undergone climate changes before, and I think this is just one more adjustment that the earth is making. True, AND I ALSO BELIEVE THIS, that man has hastened the changes we are seeing. But with warmer temperatures come more clouds and rain. CO2 dissolves in water, so, this may be a mechanism of the earth to reign in the seemingly running away climate.

I still hold out hope that man kind will do something about the problem - as we all need cleaner air. There's lots of advantages to living in a clean home, don't you agree?

Answer 7

I don't see a date on that link.

But I think its' theory has been overcome by real data.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/05/070501-arctic-ice.html

"If you had asked me a few years ago about how fast the Arctic would be ice free in summer, I would have said somewhere between about 2070 and the turn of the century," said scientist Mark Serreze, polar ice expert at the NSIDC. "My view has changed. I think that an ice-free Arctic as early as 2030 is not unreasonable."

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/GlobalWarming/story?id=3582433&page=1

EDIT - Mr Jello - You missed my point. I think your cite is old and out of date. The actual data they talk about stops in 2000. The recent data is what I'm accepting. Note how Serreze's opinion has changed in the last few years.

Answer 8

The problem with any data, is that it can be manipulated by anyone to say what they want it to say.
That's not to say, that the data is wrong, it's in the interpretation where we have our difficulties.
Who amongst us are without bias?
Who amongst us are really, secretly, hoping for world wide disaster, with which we can say 'I told you so'.

Answer 9

Politicians and political activists always use fear and lies to control people. That does not mean we should do nothing, it just means you cannot learn science from political activists.

Answer 10

I think the danger of global warming is the ice breaking off and coming south; setting off a new ice age.