Would Dr. Hansen Change His Mind Again if the Money Was There?

Question

"On July 9, 1971, the Post published a story headlined "U.S. Scientist Sees New Ice Age Coming." It told of a prediction by NASA and Columbia University scientist S.I. Rasool. The culprit: man's use of fossil fuels.

The Post reported that Rasool, writing in Science, argued that in "the next 50 years" fine dust that humans discharge into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuel will screen out so much of the sun's rays that the Earth's average temperature could fall by six degrees.

Sustained emissions over five to 10 years, Rasool claimed, "could be sufficient to trigger an ice age."

Aiding Rasool's research, the Post reported, was a "computer program developed by Dr. James Hansen," who was, according to his resume, a Columbia University research associate at the time."

http://www.investors.com/editorial/editorialcontent.asp?secid=1501&status=article&id=275267681833290

Where Hansen's climate models wrong then, or are they wrong now? Was there more money with global warming?

Answer 1

Im sure if someone gave the guy a large sum of money to say that global warming is natural, he would tell everyone that he was wrong about man made global warming and that the earth is going through a natural cycle (which is true). The guy just spouts out whatever the money tells him to.

Answer 2

I can never tell with Jello - is this question serious or a joke?

a) Other than writing a computer program as a research associate, this has nothing to do with Hansen.

b) We've reduced our aerosol emissions since 1971 while increasing our CO2 emissions, so this is not a relevant prediction or comparison. We did something about our aerosol emissions so this prediction was no longer applicable. The same is not true of CO2.

c) This was 36 freaking years ago! Need I remind you about the accuracy of Hansen's 1988 predictions? The predictions which Hansen himself actually made?

You're really scraping the bottom of the denier barrel, Jello.

Answer 3

Hansen just wrote a computer program. He's not responsible for the data Rasool fed into it.

Hansen started talking about global warming before Congress in 1988, long before it looked like a good career move. For years his bosses harassed him for taking that position.You can argue about to what extent he was censored, but it is inarguable that it was a bad career move for a government scientist in 1988. And that it continued to be one under a Bush administration (his top boss was Bush, only 3 or 4 levels up) that denied global warming was real.

Answer 4

Jello, Jello, Jello. This article does not say Hansen predicted an Ice Age, it says he wrote some software for a guy who predicted an Ice Age. I'm not responsible for every use by every user of the software I write as long as it is not written for an illegal purpose (like a virus). Let me include a little writing tip; when you quote other people you are allowed to include things they actually said. In other words, you don't have to make it all up every time. :-)

When you say change his mind "again", when exactly was the first time? Certainly not this example.

Answer 5

Hansen's model was right then, and it is still right now. Global temperatures declined from the mid 1940's to the mid 1970's due to the effects of sulfate aerosol cooling. Apparently Hansen's model predicted this correctly.

Then the US and Europe passed air pollution laws in the 1970's. The laws worked, and the air got cleaner, sulfates in the air declined, and the sulfate cooling effect declined too.

But those laws did nothing to reduce the amount of CO2 emissions, so the CO2 has continued to increase, and continued to warm the planet. Hansen's model predicts this correctly too.

Answer 6

the whole point is they were using the same science that we are using now to make these predictions. people can write a program that says the sun revolves around the earth. As long as it is a computer program, people out there will believe it.