In his book, Collapse, Jared Diamond lists..?

Question

In his book, Collapse, Jared Diamond lists reasons why society's fail to detect, and/or solve problems that render them unsustainable, and may lead to their demise. One of his points is that societies often, historically and presently, fail to even attempt to solve a problem once it has been perceived.

"Many of the reasons for such a failure fall under the heading of what economists and other social scientists term "rational behavior,"arising from clashes of interest between people. That is, some people may reason correctly that they can advance their own interests by behavior harmful to other people. Scientists term such behavior "rational" precisely because it employs correct reasoning, even though it may be morally reprehensible. The perpetrators know that they will often get away with their bad behavior, especially if there is no law against it or if the law isn't effectively enforced. They feel safe because the perpetrators are typically concentrated (few in number)"

"and highly motivated by the prospect of reaping big, certain, and immediate profits, while the losses are spread over large numbers of individuals. That gives the losers little motivation to go to the hassle of fighting back, because each loser loses only a little and would receive only small, uncertain, distant profits even from successfully undoing the minority's grab."

Do you think this apply to what we see today, with the AGW denier movement, not including the true skeptics, and the shape these discussions take?

This is similar to what happened regarding the smoking industires denials of the health effects of smoking. This is relevant since I know that atleast one, Steven Malloy, owner of the junkscience website, is involved in denying AGW and receives money from oil companies for doing this.

http://digg.com/politics/Debunking_Junkscience_com_how_Big_Tobacco_Created_The_Junkman
Which leads to:
http://www.prwatch.org/prwissues/2000Q3/junkman.html

Source is Jared Diamond’s book “Collapse”.


Please note that I have due respect for skeptics, they are very much needed in science and its discussions. They are not included in the above mentioning of deniers –which I list as those who stick their head in the sand when it comes to learning, those who purposefully distort data to mislead the public, and so on. -Anders

To afratta4371.

famine - "In July 2005, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network labelled Niger with emergency status, as well as Chad, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Somalia and Zimbabwe. In January 2006, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization warned that 11 million people in Somalia, Kenya, Djibouti and Ethiopia were in danger of starvation due to the combination of severe drought and military conflicts." Not to mention Ethiopia.
2. mass death -see above.
3. shifting of food production regions -http://www.unep.org/geo/yearbook/yb2006/063.asp
4. climate change -Read NASA, NOAA, IPCC, and many others.
5. overpopulation -We are already 6.7 billion? The worlds population is estimated to reach 9billion by 2050.
6. global cooling -We had a period of global cooling ue to Aerosols (1940s to 1970s.)

7. mass starvation -Again, see first point. Btw, the glaciars in Himalya that feed the 7 main rivers, the Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze and Huange Hethat, that support Asia with freshwater
8. massive glaciers -I guess you are reffering to this: "Global cooling in general can refer to a cooling of the Earth. More specifically, it refers to a conjecture during the 1970s of imminent cooling of the Earth's surface and atmosphere along with a posited commencement of glaciation. This hypothesis never had significant scientific support, but gained temporary popular attention due to press reports following a better understanding of ice age cycles and a slight downward trend of temperatures from the 1940s to the early 1970s"?
9. uninhabitable places on earth -I mean that places will be harder to live on, with lessening potentiol to feed people. I dn't see any place on Earth as truly "uninhabitable" although some would have severe difficulties in being self-sufficient.

10. running out of fossil fuel -They are running out. I don't know which predictions that you are reffering too, but most have placed the year they run out to significantly later then that.
11. pollution physically altering man (through adaptation) -Of course, environment has a hand in evolution. I don't know which scientists that came up with that they would(?) have a noticable effect but humans adapt to their environment. To what extent do you mean when you say "physically altering"?

It's kinda hard to argument with you since you don't provide sources to specify your claims.

*1.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine , http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/2440793.stm
*2.See above.
*3.http://www.unep.org/geo/yearbook/yb2006/063.asp
*4.http://www.nasa.gov/worldbook/global_warming_worldbook.html , http://www.ipcc.ch/ , http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html
*5.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
*6.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling

*7.http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/mar2005/2005-03-15-02.asp
*8.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling
*9.-
*10.-
*11.-

Oops, I answered some of your questions in general. (famine, mass death, overpopulation) I see increased precipitation of soils, changing weather patterns, the melting of glaciars providing fresh water, and so on as, likely grounds for famine, mass death. Overpopulation? I am lost there, I haven't heard that argument.

Answer 1

Very astute post. I know another, very similar principle. It's been known for a long time that often all the conditions develop for an advance in technology (math, materials, transportation, etc.) but the actual appearance of the science or technology may not occur until hundreds of years later. When it does, it often appears in widely separated locations, full independent of one another. The reason is thought to be that people cling to a familiar technology, especially if it affects their economic status. They will however suddenly stampede to get it when they see that someone else has made the move. As Ross Perot said, "In the 1920's, when the last buggy whip factory finally went out of business, you can bet they made the best doggone buggy whip there ever was!"

Answer 2

a quote from your well asked question above:

"That is, some people may reason correctly that they can advance their own interests by behavior harmful to other people. "

May I submit that many on the Global Warming bandwagon have found that is a way to advance their own interests...the money Gore made from his movie, the billions in grants out there for proving GW et alai....
and that in many instances that behavior is harmful to others..the witch hunts in academic and even on this board.against anyone who questions GW, and most worrisome of all the coming carbon footprint tax which will impact low income people WAY more than the rich...?

Answer 3

here are some of the predictions i grew up with over the past 40 years:

famine
mass death
shifting of food production regions
climate change
overpopulation
global cooling
mass starvation
massive glaciers
uninhabitable places on earth
running out of fossil fuel
pollution physically altering man (through adaptation)

all this was supposed to happen by the year 2000, and if man didn't stop using fossil fuels. we had 30+ years of "irrefutable data" showing that man caused it too.

but we didn't stop, we used more!

STRANGELY, NOT ONE PREDICTION HAS CAME TRUE YET!


how can you defend a track record like that?

yetyou claim "deniers stick their head in the sand"?


study the history of the environmental movement, and stop sticking YOUR head in the sand.

Answer 4

urgent - search youtube for un1vers. 1ty of fl0rida student ta5. er3d. every time ive tried to ask a question about this political incident it has been censored by yahoo. see my profile for the question or search youtube. ive never had questions taken down before - why now? howcome yahoo jump on this issue?

Answer 5

http://dineropopular.blogspot.com/