What characteristics or Statics of a past race should you value more when picking the wining horse?

Question

What should I be looking at when chosing a winner? I understand odds and sometimes you bet on certain horses because the payoff would be nice. Besides the odds what should I be looking for?

Answer 1

As the first poster says, speed figures are crucial. I also like to closely at the record the animal has at the same and similar distances and on the given surface (dirt/turf/polytrack). The winning percentage of the trainers and the jockeys are important. I think the most important stat, though, would be the purses that the different horses have run for. One horse may have posted a 95 Beyer speed figure to beat $16,000 Maiden Claimers in his last race, while another ran up an 88 in a fourth place finish in a $80,000 Optional Claimer against winners. I'm going to have to consider the second horse, even though the speed difference alone might suggest otherwise. That horse has been facing better competition than the other, and might do better against a less accomplished field.

Answer 2

Just to add to the other good advice given. Don't put too
much credence into the odds. These are just other people's opinions.
Besides, the favorite wins approximately 1/3 of the time, conversly, some other horse in the race will win 2/3 of the time.
Be a little skeptical about an expert's "Best Bet". Most of the time these are good for "show bets", or underneath in an exotic.
Past finishing times, with some exception, are generally irrelevant because the constant changes in track conditions,weather, traffic problems,etc. If you can't decide between two or three horses, go with the one with the
best trainer. Hopefully the trainer's motives are to win, and not just to give the horse a "tightener" for the next race.
Be skeptical of a horse that has a layover more than 15 days or keeps making drastic changes in distance.
Claiming races are the best to handicap because there is a built-in honesty factor. Per chance that the horse might be claimed (bought), the owner will probably not enter the horse in a race cheaper than it is worth.
Be aware of last minute equipment changes. For example,
mud calks and quarter bends are expensive. The owner won't spring for this unless he's serious about winning.
An excellent turf horse may not do that well on the dirt;"courses for horses". And on and on an'.......................
To increase your odds of making a profit at the track, suggest that you read, read,read. But be cautious, there's
no guaranteed winners or foolproof systems.
Just remember, in any given race, you will betting on two unpredictable animals, the horse and the jockey.

Answer 3

After checking the odds I typically compare a horse's race history against the race they're entered in. Is it a distance they've run before? How did they do? A horse may be a winner when the race is only 6 furlongs but that doesn't always mean they'll have the stamina to race a mile or more. The only time this doesn't really work is if the horse has never raced before. There's no real guarantee of choosing a winner regardless of what you use to make your pick. The most you can do is make an educated guess and hope that the horse is in a mood to do its best.

Answer 4

The best measure of a horses ability is his speed figures but one must also consider the conditions of pace and trip under which the horse earned his/her figure and determine if the horse is in form to replicate it. William Quirrin wrote an excellent book (Winning at the Races) based on an extensive computer study that shows which stats are most profitable.

I would never consider the odds alone in picking a horse.
What is important is getting fair value, which means that the pay-off will be at least as high or better as the horses chances indicate. High odds mean nothing if the horse has little chance to win.
Studies have shown that horses basically pay-off according to their chances of winning. The exceptions are with very high priced longshots which win too rarely to be worth a bet and short price favorites who actually offer value because a lot of people don't bet them because they don't like the odds. Of course if a horse pays too little its hardly worth the trouble of betting. The best way to deal with these horses is to key them in Exactas and Trifectas which pay much more.

Answer 5

The grades of the past races. Is the horse moving up or down in class, and what results did the animal achieve in the last class.
Distance, and does the horse have closing speed, or is it a rabbit.
The trainer.
The pedigree.
The grades of it's former competition, and the horses place of finish.
And the one variable only the horse knows for sure. Does the horse feel like running on that day,