Could this be the secret to roulette?

Question

You pick any number and bet $1 on it. If you lose, bet $2 on it. If you lose again, bet $3 on it and so on.

At first you will lose a lot of money but if you win, your winnings will make up for what you lost so you make a profit.
However, the additions to the amount of money you lose increase each round. First you've lost $1 then $3 then $6...but the additions to the payout increase by 36 each time. So eventually, you will start to lose money even if you win. This happens after you play 404 games.

This means that if you win before you play 404 times you will make a profit. The odds of this are in your favor. You have about a 99.998% chance of winning before you play 404 times.

If you make a profit, it will only be about $630 at the most. The most you will spend is about $14,000. If you use this method, it can take a long time for you to actually make a large amount of money. But if you have time and $15,000 you could beat the house!

Would this work or is my math wrong?

Answer 1

You're kind of describing the "Martingale system," but your math is off. For the system to "work" you need to double your bet. You'd go from 1 to 2 to 4 to 8 to 16 etc.

However, for the best explanation for why this doesn't work is to look at it from an expected value perspective. Let's use "betting on red" as our system. On an American wheel, there are 18 red spots out of 38 (18 red, 18 black, and 2 green). The odds of hitting are 1.11 to 1, but you get paid 1 to 1 when you hit.

This is a disadvantage of 5.3%. Thus, in the long term, you expect to lose $5.30 on every $100 bet. From a mathematical perspective, the conclusion is (via Wikipedia):
"Since expectation is linear, the expected value of a series of bets is just the sum of the expected value of each bet. Since in such games of chance the bets are independent, the expectation of all bets are going to be the same, regardless of whether you had previously won or lost. In most gambling games, the expected value of any individual bet is going to be negative, so the sum of lots of negative numbers is also always going to be negative."
You're expecting to lose on each bet, so continuing to make more and more negative bets will just create a larger and larger negative number.

From another perspective, think about it this way. Say you have enough money for 50 "doubles" of your bets. It may be extremely unlikely that you actually lose 50 straight, but the rare instance that it happens it wipes out so much money that it is not worth it for the typical small gains. You could theoretically have enough money for 5 million doubles of your bets, but again, if you were to play the game trillions and trillions of times, the one time that you busted the 5 million times straight would wipe out so much that it isn't worth it.

It can be hard to understand, but if any individual bet is -EV there's no way to make it +EV by manipulating the amount of money used.

Answer 2

No it doesn't work.

First off, there are very few tables in a casino that will let you wager thousands of dollars, and those that do will have a high minimum bet.

So if you bet on a $1 table, after you reach about $500 or so, you can no longer increase your bet. Then you would have to move over to a high stakes table to keep betting higher.

If you are talking even money bets, it is rare to find any casino that will let you bet just $5 on one. Most of the time the minimum on an even money bet is $10. This makes your chase system very expensive after just a few losses.

You also be surprised how expensive this system gets if you lose just five or six games in a row. Your losses grow exponentially, and in the end you are betting huge amounts just to win back what you lost originally.

Answer 3

Well lots of people know the correct term for the system but not a lot of them have read the question right. If you pick a number to bet on mate and your on $1 table you'll find the table max is $100 on the number if you start with a $1 you can only double your bet 7 times. I suggest you work your figures around that if you try the dozens you'll find the max bet is $500 and the even chance bets are a max of $1000. I do believe that most if not all of the contributors to this question have answered it many times this is at least my third time.

Answer 4

This is not a bad system. What you are describing is known as a "chase system". The same works with bets in craps and also on sports betting. It is a solid system but if you do happen to get on a bad run where you miss 300-400 times, then you will lose a fortune. It is highly unlikely, but possible.

I do this in baseball series a lot. I pick an underdog to win. If they do win, I am already a winner. If they don't I bet double on game 2...etc. You rarely see a sweep in baseball if you pick the right teams in the right circumstances. Same goes with roulette. Eventually, you will hit your number. If not, be prepared to lose a small fortune. Good luck on your system!

Answer 5

Guess the last secret is most people do not know the game is rigged. The croupier can control the outcome of the game and can spin the number which is least betted. Roulette is an evil game which total numbers add up to 666 !

Answer 6

What you are describing is called the Martingale system.

There is no system that works in roulette. The 0's give the house a 5.27% edge over you regardless of your bet or system. Its too big to overcome and will get you in the long run.

Play it sanely, for reasonable amounts, and for fun. Remember, every loser in the casino (95% of all patrons) all have a "system". The winners just get lucky.

Answer 7

Your math is wrong.

On your 404th bet your average bet size will have been $202. That makes the total amount you you have wagered

= 404 x 202 $81,608

If you won on the 404th bet your winnings would be

= 404 x 35 = $14,140

It is not worth your time to figure out the accurate values. The previous answers were correct that progressive betting systems do not work in the long run.

Answer 8

if you have an unlimited bankroll, then martingdale can work. Martingdale system works every single time except once: the time you go broke A great quote from the wikipedia page on the martingdale system "Since expectation is linear, the expected value of a series of bets is just the sum of the expected value of each bet. Since in such games of chance the bets are independent, the expectation of all bets are going to be the same, regardless of whether you had previous won or lost. In any gambling game, the expected value of any individual bet is going to be negative, so the sum of a bunch of negative numbers is also always going to be negative." And as impossible as it seems for a sports team to lose 20 games in a row .... each game is still an independent event

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070126222332AAx5xVM

Answer 9

It sounds good in theory but casinos put table limits on the minimun and maximum amounts you can bet, so if you haven't hit your number before reaching the table betting max you may not be able to make a profit.

Answer 10

Most casinos have a maximum you can bet. If you continue to lose, you hit the table limit and are not able to win back your losses with one bet. Also, the cumulative losses can mount up very quickly.