How accurate are extrapolations in the realm of Global Warming Science?

Question

When I was in college I remember learning about interpolations and extrapolations to predict results. My instructor informed us that we could not rely on extrapolations outside of the data set.

If an Ice Age was adamantly predicted by climate science in the 70's will Global Warming predictions be considered as big a farce in 30 years?

Answer 1

Global warming like past ice ages are a natural occurence in the life of the earth. Only the man who invented the internet and his minions believe that they have the power to alter or stop the life cycle of the palnet.


http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0119/p13s01-sten.html

Answer 2

Pretty accurate. Surely good enough to prove the basic facts, that global warming is real and caused mostly by us.

Look at this graph of a model and the measured data.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Climate_Change_Attribution.png

And look at these graphs. The pink bands show the models with human activity, the blue shows the models without that. Note that they are bands, not lines, they include the error estimates. The black line is the measured data. Clearly the pink model is far better. Page 11.

http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf

The few scientists with little data who predicted an Ice Age are in no way like the huge database and consensus that exists for global warming today. The website below has the details.

A much more accurate comparison would be between those few scientists in the 70s who predicted an ice age and the global warming skeptics today. Few of them, generally not the top people, with little data to support their arguments.

Few (no?) large scientific organizations supported the Ice Age idea, most all of them back global warming as real and caused by us.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=94

If we do nothing global warming will not be a farce, it will be the biggest disaster in history.

http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSL052735320070407

Answer 3

You have hit the nail on the head. Depending on the assumptions used in the climate prediction model, you can extrapolate that increasing CO2 will cause massive warming, no warming or even cooling. That is why there is so much argument about global warming.

Answer 4

Yes! I believe that Gore will be considered a farce in 10 years.

I DO believe we should try and eliminate pollution as much as possible although for different reasons than Global Warming. I think that we should improve air quality for health reasons and because it IS the right thing to do.

If these doom and gloom people would quit with the lies and just tell people that we should eliminate pollution because it is the right thing to do, instead of trying to frighten people by making outlandish claims, then they would probably get much more support for their cause.

Answer 5

Which extrapolations are you talking about? The extrapolations that predict cooling, the extrapolations that predict warming, or the ones that predict business as usual?

Answer 6

Yes and no. The IPCC just completed a final report of the climate. The team of scientists consisted of the best minds in the world. The difference between the 70's and now is that they actually spent the last 10 years monitoring current happenings, not speculating based on past happenings. Of course nothing is perfect and I'm sure the predictions and time frames in the report will be slightly off one way or another, however it will be much more accurate than in the past.

Answer 7

The predictions are not very precise. It is, however, fairly safe to say that things will get warmer over the next several years. After all, it has been warmer in the past, and there is no reason to believe it will not be so again.