What are the odds of flopping a set?

Question

You have 44 but noone else at the table is holding another 4. You have both 4's live. What are the odds of one of these 4's coming on the flop?

ON THE FLOP !!!!

Answer 1

If you have a pocket pair, the odds of hitting a set on the flop are 7.5-1. So you are basically going to hit a set about one in eight times that you hold a pocket pair.

I also found this more detailed information online:

there are two cards in your hand that match

there are 50 other cards that you can not see

the probability that you dont see either of the two cards that you are looking to match the two you got is:

(48/50) × (47/49) × (46/48 ) = 88.2%

therefore the probablity that you see at least on of those cards is 11.8%

or 7.5 to 1

now one last thing
this is the odds of getting at least a set
so it is the probability of getting a set or a full house or quads

the probability of flopping a full house is 0.74% (when you have a pocket pair)
the probability of flopping quads is 0.25% (when you have a pocket pair)

so the probability of flopping exactly a set is 10.8% (slight rounding error here)
or 8.3 to 1

Answer 2

Yup,zct is right, you will only hit once per every 7.5 times you have a pair. But you never know for sure if your fours are still in play, for all you know there are no 4's left. You always figure your outs based on what is left in the deck. For example if you flop a flush draw your outs are 9 spades, now there may not be 9 spades left in the deck, but you always count your draw as 9 outs regardless of how many spades are actually in the deck.

Answer 3

30% my sister flopping a set every time she gets drunk