Why should global warming result in more severe weather?

Question

We often hear that global warming will increase the number of severe hurricanes and storms. What is the scientific basis for this claim? Yes, I know that hurricanes "feed off of warm water". But I believe that weather is driven by temperature gradients, not the average temperature. If the average temperature were to rise by 10 degrees, would not the temperature gradients that drive weather systems remain pretty much the same?

We often hear that global warming will increase the number of severe hurricanes and storms. What is the scientific basis for this claim? Yes, I know that hurricanes "feed off of warm water". But I believe that weather is driven by temperature gradients, not the average temperature. If the average temperature were to rise by 10 degrees, would not the temperature gradients that drive weather systems remain pretty much the same?

I am not completely satisfied with the answer given by sillyfox, who simply asserts that the collapse of the conveyor will bring blizzards.

Answer 1

In the tropics, radiation is not a plausable means of releasing heat (because the water vapor concentration is high enough to trap the radiation), so convection is the only means to release heat. As the heat goes up, the convection becomes more powerful. Hurricanes are very powerful cooling agents. The entire Gulf cooled 1 degree C overall and 5 degrees C in the path of Katrina. This convection will drive the gradients you speak of, but the imbalance should only be greater. So, it's not 100% correlation, but hurricanes worldwide are stronger and more frequent than ever, and the records go back to 1850. 2006 was the biggest year ever (average in the Atlantic, records in Pacific), beating out 2005 (record in Atlantic, above average in Pacific). Just recently, the first hurricane EVER recorded in the south Atlantic formed, along with the first to ever hit Portugal.

By the way, the El Nino/La Nina pattern has a big influence on the location of hurricanes. The 2004/2005 El Nino warmed the Atlantic, leading to the big 2005 season, and the 2005/2006 La Nina warmed the Pacific and helped their record season.

Answer 2

It is a system with a feedback mechanism. For example, higher temperatures lead to the melting of sea ice, which exposes more water to the sun. The water absorbs more solar energy, which accelerates global warming, and so on.This theory starts with the melting of glaciers and sea ice, but involves the dilution of seawater's salinity - or salt content - that results. That salt content is a key element in an ocean current that takes heat from the tropics northward and cold water southward and in the process moderates temperatures in the Eastern United States and much of Europe. The collapse of this so-called conveyor could, in the worst case, produce a new ice age. The best case would give us severe winters, increasingly violent storms, flooding, drought and high winds around the globe, disrupting food production and energy supplies and raising sea levels high enough to flood coastal cities and make them unlivable.

Answer 3

The size of a tropical storm is limited due to physics, if more large storms exist, then they will have shorter lifetimes, there will be fewer of them, and their season will also be shorter.


It should be noted that it's the Earth itself that heat up the ocean, the sun and the atmosphere just make sure the water surface temperature are at a constant rate.

The atmosphere is relatively lousy at heating things up, try boiling water with an oven instead of a stove.

Answer 4

that is if Global warming is actually happening or if the earth is in a natural cycle. Remember that the eruption of Mt St Helens put about a 1000 times more green house gases and crap in the air than man has between the years of 1780 to present day. More oil leaks into the ocean naturally than any type of oil tanker has ever done.

Answer 5

Storms such as hurricanes act to help dissipate heat on the earth's surface. Therefore, if the earth is hotter, storms need to be bigger to dissipate more heat and help balance temperatures.