Would you have folded in this situation?

Question

I love playing PL Omaha but I don't know the odds for this game very well... if anybody could give me a % that I will hit a winning hand here it would help my game very much...

Here's the situation.
PL Omaha Tournament
My hole cards: As 4c Ac 3c
Board: 3h Kd Jh
Pot size: 750

I am on the button, in the pot for 150 (called the BB), with about 12,000 in chips...
Bet to me is 300 - and after thinking about it I fold.

I put the guy on top two pair or a flush draw (turns out he had top two and made a full boat on the river)... After I fold the other two people in the pot call --- turn card was an ace.....

Had I called I could have taken down a huge pot (two people went all in on the turn, one with broadway straight and the other with his two pair)... but I feel like I probably made the right move by folding.

Was folding the right move according to the pot odds I was getting (at that point - call 300 to win 750)?

This was regular PL Omaha - not Omaha 8 (or Hi/Lo)....

The pot odds I was looking at were just what I had at the moment (which was to call 300 to possibly win 750). I had no reason to think that the other two people would actually call the bet since they had both checked their hands right after the flop - so I didn't factor their calls into my pot odds.

I'm a little curious about what the odds of me hitting that ace were - at most there were 2 aces left in the deck, and since it was a full 9 person table there would be 40 cards already out of the deck (4 to each player + the three flop cards + burn card)... so is it correct to think I had at best about a 10% chance to hit my ace (and even less of a chance to fill up on the river).... Any help on the percentages would be much appreciated.

I meant a 20% chance to hit the ace, not 10%...

I didn't like the hand that much, but I figured it was worth it to see a flop by calling the big blind since I was on the button....

I usually play Omaha Hi/Lo so that might be why I figured it was worth seeing a flop (not that I didn't know what game I was playing, but maybe it made the hand look more attractive than if I only played regular Omaha).....

Answer 1

Your hand was great for 8/b, but for Omaha high, it wasn't a great hand. If there was action before the flop, I would have folded then.

In Omaha, outs only count if they give you the nuts.

There's two outs for you, the other two aces.
But one of them is the ace of hearts, giving someone else a flush.
So you only have one out.
But if someone else has Q-10, they make broadway.
A single ace gives you trips.

So you have no outs. You would need two running cards to make your boat, and at that point you're about 50-1.

Answer 2

I'm no Omaha expert, but I don't really like this hand to begin with. Due to the nature of Omaha, pocket pairs are not really great hands, especially since your other two cards were 3 and 4 (I am assuming you're not playing O8).

Anyway, I wouldn't go much further with your hand after the flop. You don't have much to improve, other than getting a third ace and the board pairing for a boat. Remember, you didn't have a boat when the ace turned because you can only use two hole cards. So, unless the river paired the board, you would have lost to the broadway straight.

And you also have to notice that the board is coordinated. Your set (unless it fills, that's a big longshot) won't do you much good, especially since one of your outs (Ah) puts a 3 flush on the board.

In Omaha, I generally play hands where each card of my four can be used with any other card to make a premium hand. LIke double suited aces or kings, two sets of suited connectors, 4 unsuited connectors, etc.

One more thing, don't continue after the flop unless you have either the nuts (or 2nd nuts), or a strong draw to the nuts. Don't stay in hoping to catch the low end of a straight or a runner runner flush or full house. Omaha is a game where you will succeed based on your ability to play the flop. Best of luck to you!

Edit: One more thing, I not too crazy about the way you calculated your odds. There are 3 of you in the pot, and with BB being 150, there is 450 going into the flop. If it was 300 to you and both guys went to the river, then you would be looking at 300 to win 1050 (other 2 guys' bets of 300 = 600+450) to see the turn.

THEN, you have to also factor in the bet on the turn, we don't know that yet, but your pot odds also have to take the turn and river into consideration.

Answer 3

Absolutely folding was the right move. Your mistake was remembering your hand after you folded it. Once you fold, you have to clear your memory of what you had. That way, you won't remember the situations when a card comes that would have given you a suckout win. That way leads to madness, and terrible poker. Devote more of your effort to remembering your opponent's actions and tendencies.

Answer 4

post your question on the 2+2 forums....they have one specifically for Omaha.....the folks up there are excellent players & will give you comprehensive analysis of your play.

http://www.twoplustwo.com/

Answer 5

You did the right thing.Pot size is very important .

Answer 6

I agree. Good call on your part.

Answer 7

It was cheap enough to call