Why couldn't Climatologist predict the record snow this year?

Question

If you asked the question "How much snow will there be this year?" just a couple of months ago, there is little doubt that believers would say that we would be lucky to see any snow this year, and most likely we would be wearing shorts in December because of "global warming".

Now that we are having record snow falls, the believers are claiming that the snow is caused by global warming, and they commissioned "studies" that prove "conclusively" that the record snows and cold are due to "global warming".

If climatologist can't forecast the climate 2 months from now, how can we trust or believe the predictions they are making 50 years from now?

Clearly they are just taking a guess. No one can predict the future. Any prediction is no better than a coin toss.

Can't everyone agree that climatologist are just guessing about the future?

Answer 1

The computer models need more tweaking. Maybe some day. I'm sure we will be hearing that global warming causes global cooling soon. I'm visiting family in Kansas today. The ponds and the creek are frozen and we still have snow from earlier in the week. We haven't seen the creek or ponds frozen for at least a decade until 2007. They did freeze in January and February and now December. In the 70s I had to take an ax and cut holes in the ice for the livestock to drink.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/21086690@N05/?saved=1

Answer 2

Might be old hash for some, for me it;s new.Been visiting NOAA's web site along with others and found some informative news.Most satellites are limited to topographic views using heat and light as a reference.Until the Astroview satellite(not the TV) is launched there are no real time images.As to date most views have a 16 day lag time and use supplemental aerial sources(airplanes).This means the images are compromised from anything to the terrain, hot spots,water vapor and yes even the weather itself.Along the equinox certain transponders are turn off to conserve power leaving input and output gaps.One area that left me agape was the amount of influence the upper atmosphere contributes to what we actually see on earth, mostly in a state of constant flux according to scientific theory.As of yet there is no accurately way to monitor the upper atmosphere, modern man is still @ the first step. Yes it's a guessing game and I think people should make their own decisions whether it's based on fact or fiction.
As a add on to those that think they have a magic wand...There' 12 formulas for just STP all of these being based under ideal and controled situations which doesn't happen in the real world.

Answer 3

Its not possible to predict the world wide weather 2 months in advance.

Where I am , I have not had snow for a long time , 4 years I think. So they were right about where I am, they said no snow- and we had no snow.

"Clearly they are just taking a guess. No one can predict the future. Any prediction is no better than a coin toss."

no- they are making an EDUCATED guess, although the word guess has some of the wrong implications. A prediction based on observed data and patterns, is much better that a coin toss .

"Can't everyone agree that climatologist are just guessing about the future?"

do you have ANY relevant expertise at all ? do you actually know anything of climatology ? or are you just insulting that entire scientific community based on your dislike of the reality we face ?

Answer 4

I predicted it ,and I'm not even a climatologist. The reason is fairly simple. The oceans have heated up. Doesn't matter how. That heat is released in the form of evaporation. When the Earth tilts on it's axis,as it does every year at this time,that brings on Winter in the Northern Latitudes. The 'excess' evaporation in the form of water vapor falls as snow. The problem comes when unusual amounts of vapor are present. Look at what happened this year on an island 400 miles off the coast of Africa called Reunion Is. It recieved 155 inches of rain in just 3 days! Shattering the old record!

Answer 5

Nice Strawman ;-)

Prediction: December 2020 will be colder in New York than July 2020. Is that "just guessing" or do you admit that I have a whole lot of evidence backing up the reliability of this prediction?

Try to keep weather forecasting and climatology separate. No climatologist ever claimed he/she could predict specific weather events in specific regions (which is what your "record" snow fall is). So your strawman crumbles.

Answer 6

I was wearing shorts all day today. Temperatures were in the mid to upper 80's.

Thus, if some heavy snowfall in the northern US is proof that global warming is not ocurring, unusual warmth in the southern US surely must be proof of the opposite.

Or it could just be that short term conditions over a relatively small area of the globe don't tell us jack about long term global temperature trends.

One or the other.

Answer 7

what record snow? I live in the snow belt 2 quick storms that dumped a bunch only because the great lakes are still warm (lake effect look it up), and it was all melted a couple of days later. It's been warm enough my furnace rarely kicks on so my gas bill is low. so where is this evidence that GW is a hoax. and a couple of days ago it was t-shirt weather.

Answer 8

Short term weather events and longer term climate change trends are NOT the same. Climatologists study and predict long term trends.

Answer 9

No, forecasting local conditions "2 months from now" is weather, not climate, and you know it. Who would fall for that simplistic trick?

Weather (short term events) is not climate (long term trends). You're not describing anything that applies over time.

What is the source of your information, and what is the regional scope and measurement timeframe of the "record snowfall" you're referring to? Are you claiming that the first few weeks of this season prove something about the next four months, or about global climate?

If you'd like to deal in facts, this is how a water district summarized the last completed season's snowpack in the basins affecting their supply:
http://www.padredam.org/PDFs/NovDec07Newsletter.pdf
2007 snowpack in the Colorado river Basin
40% of Normal
2007 snowpack in the Sierras
30% of normal

Here's what water managers were saying earlier this month:

“There is no longer any scientific doubt that the earth’s average surface temperature has risen 1.3 degrees F during the past century and warming has accelerated during the past decade,” said director of the Utah Climate Center – State Climateologist Dr. Rob Gillies, adding “It’s more likely than not that water supplies in Utah and the Colorado River Basin will decline in the 21st century.” Last year was the second warmest summer recorded in the continental U.S. since recordkeeping began in 1895, and according to NOAA, eight of the past 10 years have been above-average temperatures. According to Dr. Gillies, during the last decade Utah was 2 degrees warmer than the 100 year average.

For specific numbers related to longer term trends in the Rockies:

• Aspen's climate has already changed noticeably in the last 25 years. "Temperatures have increased by about 3 degrees and the average number of frost-free days per year has increased about 20 days," the study said.

• Total precipitation decreased 6 percent over the last 25 years while snowfall is down 16 percent.

• Higher temperatures are inevitable even if the world's nations make progress on global warming. Aspen's temperature increases will range from 6 to 14 degrees by 2100, depending on how aggressive the response is to global warming.

• Most of Aspen's precipitation will fall as rain rather than snow. "Snowpack will decline, and peak runoff will occur earlier in the spring," the study said. "Summer and fall stream flows will be reduced, potentially declining below the minimum needed to protect aquatic species. The greater the temperature rise, the more extreme these effects will be."

As for measured trend data in the Tahoe Basin:

-- Cold days are fewer: The number of days with average air temperatures below freezing has dropped from 79 days to 52 days since 1911.

-- Nights are warmer: Night low temperatures have risen more than 4 degrees Fahrenheit since 1911.

-- There's more total precipitation, but less of the precipitation falls as snow: The percentage of snow in total precipitation has decreased from 52 percent to 34 percent since 1911.

Your question appears to be an ineffective but deliberate attempt to mislead Yahoo Answers members.

Answer 10

I can completely agree that climatologists are just guessing about the future. Shoot they are really also playing guessing games about the past, no matter how much the believers on here want to believe the data about past heating and cooling trends are empirical fact.