What do you think of Svante Arrhenius' global warming calculations in the 1890s?

Question

A Swedish scientist named Svante Arrhenius made some incredibly impressive calculations regarding the involvement of CO2 in climate change over a century ago.

He concluded that decreasing levels of atmospheric CO2 could have been enough to trigger prior ice ages. Nowadays, the accepted explanation is that orbital forcing sets the timing for ice ages with CO2 acting as an essential amplifying feedback.

Arrhenius estimated that a doubling of CO2 would cause a 5-6°C warming. The IPCC currently puts the warming at 2-4.5°C.

Arrhenius also correctly predicted that increased CO2 would cause greater warming at higher latitudes, a night, and during the winter.

He believed that CO2-induced warming would be beneficial and could prevent the next ice age from happening. Of course, he also expected CO2 doubling to take about 3000 years; it is now predicted to take about a century.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius#Greenhouse_effect_as_cause_for_ice_ages

What do you think of these calculations?

Considering that they were done on a pad and paper while current climate science is often done on supercomputers, I think it's pretty brilliant.

Answer 1

I am quite impressed.

Off course he calculated a CO2 increase based on a very limited use of coal which was at that time mainly excavated in mines (no open sky mines) and without advanced machinery.

He never imagined that fossil fuels would be so widely used.

I guess he is good at calculating and was wrong at making forecasts for the future.

Answer 2

Yes. Quite impressive. I agree that increased CO2 and other greenhouse gases should have a moderating effect on the environment tending to warm the night, winter, and higher latitudes. In addition it should moderate desert temperatures by warming the sometimes frigid nights. These are good benefits that should help animals and plants survive in greater numbers. It will help farms extend growing seasons. More people can be fed and fewer people will die from cold related deaths. I wouldn't put much stock in his actual calculations since there are numerous factors which he wasn't aware of but it is interesting that he understood the concept.

Answer 3

If people don't like Wikipedia:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/Giants/Arrhenius/

(Edit: Dana I ran across this yesterday when I was doing my CO2 and Trees research.)

Answer 4

Its sensible enough for me.

Answer 5

BS ps are you a guy or a girl dana is a girls name but your picture is a guy it actually looks quite stupid