What are the odds of getting to level 4 and then getting reverted back to level 3?

Question

I posted the following question:

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20071228011124AARNAcZ&r=w

And then artiststree asked : "What were the mathematical odds of that happening?"

So here I am folks, I am stumped on this one myself.

What are the odds?

Puzzling, you are amazing!

I love you!

Ack!

Im level 4 now because someone just picked me as their best answer.

Oh, well it was bound to happen.

Hey im only 2 more questions away from level 3 right?

Dont tempt me...

Now who do I pick for the best answer here? Hmmm.....

So true artiststree, and actually I think that is my first star!! Thanks!

artiststree, I see you edited your answer.

Actually I had a lot of questions pending so I could have been voted best answer at any time on one or more and then it would have been a lot harder to do...

But I would say the odds are 100% if you are within 5 points of a level...

But then you can argue that...

LOL!

Answer 1

Well the events aren't totally random so we can't compute odds. If you are determined you can ask enough questions to get yourself back to level 1 if you like... no probability involved.

In fact, I asked a similar question when I reached level 5 wondering if it would drop me a level if I asked a question, which it did. No mystery there.

For a person that only answered questions the probability would be 0%, barring questions being reported or otherwise deleted.

For a person that liked to ask lots of questions, or deliberately decided to ask a question whenever crossing a level threshold, the probability would be 100% (barring lots of questions getting voted best answer or getting a string of thumbs-up votes happening so quickly you couldn't keep up.)

But there would be no way to quantify the odds for every possible situation because it involves the behaviors of the individuals with independent choice, not just random events.

Answer 2

Pick artiststree for putting you on the path of inquiry. After all he did give you a star!

Actually the odds are 50/50 because at that point you can either ask a question or give an answer to alter the resulting level.
At that point of getting to level 4 you could have answered some questions thereby altering the chance of losing that level. However, you chose to ask thereby changing the level.

The decision is always the same odds: ask or answer
Move forward or move back; up or down

Of course these odds are based on your personal action whereas the actions of external sources can increase the odds to a indeterminant figure.
What are the odds of someone picking yours as a best answer? One in a (the # of Q&A members)

Answer 3

After following your link, it just dawned on me that you could turn this into a treasure hunt. lol You could add another link to another question that had another link to another and so on. Maybe even loop back to the original question that could only be answered if you got clues from all the other links. It would be entertaining to see all the answers too. Make them work for their points. lol This may not follow yahoo guidelines, but I doubt anyone would complain. This might cost you a few points, but what the heck you are trying to get back to level 3. lol