Does Bhutto's murder mean dangerous instability for nuclear Pakistan?

Question

Today's assassination of Benazir Bhutto might destabilize Pakistan. The worst case scenario could see radical religious forces taking over the country. But Pakistan is a nuclear power.

So, the bullets and bombs of today's murderer could cause war or international occupation of Pakistan to prevent jihadists from taking power.

Please, only serious discussion, any name-calling or rude answers will be removed.

Bhutto's alleged "corruption" has literally nothing to do with her importance and popularity in Pakistan. Similarly, the actual person(s) responsible for her murder may have caused more damage than simply asserting their particular cause. For example, this murder - whether in fact or not - will be laid at the hands of the Pakistani Army in the minds of a great many Pakistanis. She was in Rawalpindi, "home" of the Army and considered one of the safest places she could have gone.

I'm not ringing the tocsin of war or getting over-anxious. I'm asking for reasoned thinking about the possible consequences.

Answer 1

There's no telling as of now. Of course Pakistan is in complete chaos now. This happened at what appears to be one of the worse times it could have. Musharraf seemed to be losing his grip on power (unless he would enact more authoritarian policies,which even then would not ensure his grip on power), a rising radical Islamic Insurgency in Pakistan; and a populist leader threatening the both of them (Musharraf & radical Islamists). Now the populist has been killed.

I imagine Pakistanis have no clue as to who to trust. One may make a decent argument it was...anyone that was behind this. It depends on the Pakistanis; and who the Pakistanis elect to listen to.

I think you said it, the assassination of Bhutto may lead to war(civil or external,most likely civil in my opinion), religious tyranny; or the worse case (in my opinion): intervention by other nations. I think intervention by the United States would be the worse thing that could happen.

I know it appears a religious tyranny for a government would be the worse thing imaginable(and if it were to happen, I could see the United States intervene);but, an intervention on part of the Great Satan in Pakistan, the apparent center of Islamic radicalism, would lead to a far more disastrous end, it very well would probably be the war Bin Laden has prayed for for so long. It would be far more desirable than our stupidity in Iraq.

Civil war would most likely take place if such a thing were to happen, nuclear weapons may go off, regional warfare, I don't want to imagine such a scenario; and I am thankful & confident the United States cannot and will not intervene (at least openly, I'm sure we've got covert forces in Pakistan now, and are most likely sending more).

This may wind up for the good. The populist movement may carry the day; and if that were to happen, in theory, they would fight the authoritarianism of Musharraf and the Islamic nut-jobs. I don't see this as a likely outcome,but it is probably the best case scenario.

The most likely scenario in my eyes is Civil War or a long term instability in Pakistan. I think of Colombia as I think of this situation. The assassination of Jorge Eliécer Gaitán is the most relevant cause of the instability or "La Violencia" (and Civil War) in Colombia, that was over 50 years ago; and we still see the devastation caused by that event.

If Civil War takes place, India will be inclined to intervene, as will many other countries. I believe they would show restraint and let it play out for itself, as Pakistan does indeed have Nuclear weapons. If a country intervenes in such a scenario, we've got plenty of chaos for a region already in chaos.

The implications of this assassination are very worrisome (to say the least). I hope the Pakistanis realize the implications as well;but, now they are blinded with rage and sorrow.

The scary thing is it appears the radical Islamics have the upper-hand. This may backfire on them (if they are found to be responsible, and I have little doubt the Pakistani government will blame them even if they didn't do this). Regardless, from what I have read of Pakistan, much of the population support a radical Islamic rule, which is what worries me.

If Bin Laden is in fact in Pakistan, it only re-enforces this notion to me (that many Pakistanis desire radical Islam). We've had $25 million on his head (if not more as of now) for quite some time. Most Pakistanis live in unfathomable poverty, this money should be very very enticing to them. Most terror groups collapse due to betrayal on part of members, no one has given Bin Laden up yet.

Bhutto's alleged corruption is indeed irrelevant, because she had such a strong and vast base of support in Pakistan. The fact she appeared to be such a brave person, willing to sacrifice herself "for her country," has made her a martyr; and I am sure even those that did not like her much now respect her much more. It no longer matters whether or not she was true to what she stood for, she is now going to be remembered as a martyr; and she will be revered in a manner she never would have attained in life. This is a huge part of the reason why the implications are so strong. This is also what leads me to think her movement could carry the day. I think her movement will succeed only if they find a leader in this time of crisis. They need to re-organize and focus. I find it unlikely a leader will be able to fill the void created by Bhutto for her movement, but it is possible.

I think you get the idea of what this can mean. We have to see how it plays out. The full effects will most likely not present themselves for months; or it may even take years for the full backlash to show itself. We can only speculate, wait; and hope for the best. I do not expect the best to happen though. If History has taught us anything in regards to situations as this, the best does not usually happen. Good inquiry. Cheers!

Answer 2

If things REALLY got bad in Pakistan, I think the military officers who hold the "keys" (as it were) to arming Pakistans nuclear munitions would take those keys out of the country, likely turning them over to the US.

Sorta like the way level headed US technicians disabled Iran's F-14s on their way out of the country when the Shah was overthrown.

Answer 3

Yes, but remember she was very corrupt, and there is no telling which group did the killing. Please stay calm until more is known.