How likely (%) do you think it is that the anthropogenic global warming theory is wrong?

Question

Considering the scientific facts such as:

The planet is warming more at night than during the day.

The upper atmosphere is cooling and lower atmosphere is warming.

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 37% higher than they have been in millions of years.

The surface has warmed 0.5 C over the past 30 years - a rate of 0.17 deg C per decade.

Solar output has decreased over the past 30 years and we're in a cooling portion of the Earth's orbital (Milankovitch) cycles.

Most of the scientific experts think humans are the primary cause of this warming.

In your estimation and considering these scientific facts, what is the percentage likelihood that the current global warming is not being mostly caused by humans?

Answer 1

The scientist themselves say it's "only" 99% certain.

BRANDO4755 - Undersampled?? That's a joke, right?

They have a VAST amount of measured data. I'll point to to some of it. Much on the web, others in college libraries. I'll focus on websites which have compiled many thousands of data points. There are many lesser sites.

Here are sites for: CO2 data from all over the world, for many years:

http://gaw.kishou.go.jp/wdcgg

Temperature data:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov

Sea level data:

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/

This report has hundreds of references pointing you to more data than you could absorb in years, available at most university libraries.

http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm

The bottom line:

"I wasn’t convinced by a person or any interest group—it was the data that got me. I was utterly convinced of this connection between the burning of fossil fuels and climate change. And I was convinced that if we didn’t do something about this, we would be in deep trouble.”

Vice Admiral Richard H. Truly, USN (Ret.)
Former NASA Administrator, Shuttle Astronaut

Answer 2

I think it's as close to zero as you can get that the theory about greenhouse gases warm the earth is wrong.

I do think however that there might be about a 25% chance that the consequences won't be as bad as IPCC predicts. There might also be at least 25% risk that the consequenses might be more severe than what they think.

Whatever will happen I'm quite sure that our current way of dumping emissions of greenhouse gases into our atmosphere eventually WILL cause the world a lot of trouble and that we better turn towards more sustainable ways now instead of getting ourselves further onto the wrong road.

Answer 3

Check this out Dana

“Most people who claim to be contrarians and say the planet is going to cool, none of them will put their money where their mouth is,” he said. “It’s been a very good way of showing that a lot of the noise that you hear from the wackier elements is in fact just noise and actually is not based on anything.”

Schmidt described one bet he personally negotiated with a Canadian paleo-climatologist one night over a dinner that included wine.

“I said it will warm more than 0.1 degree [Celsius] in the next decade. He said it would warm less than that,” Schmidt said. “But then in the morning, when he may have sobered up, and I tried to get a confirmation that was the bet that we had, I heard no more.”

Global Warming Related Bets Offered by BetUS.com (see notes below regarding * and #):

It's proven that global warming exists beyond any scientific doubt before Dec. 31, 2007 Yes - 1/5* #
It's proven that humans caused global warming beyond any scientific doubt before Dec. 31, 2007 Yes - 2/1*#
The ocean will rise six inches by the end of the year (worldwide as an average) Yes - 150/1
Polar Bears will become extinct by 2010 Yes - 100/1
A car that runs solely on water will hit the market by 2008 (must be a stock car produced for mass consumption) Yes - 150/1
Antarctica will become livable for humans by 2015 (must be able to sustain crops in order for wager to win) Yes - 500/1
Humans will find a way to reverse global warming so efficiently that global freezing becomes a factor by 2020 Yes - 300/1
Manhattan will be under water before 12/31/11 Yes - 100/1
Florida will be under water before 12/31/11 Yes - 10/1
Cape Cod is submerged by 2015 Yes - 150/1
Cape Hatteras is submerged by 2015 Yes - 300/1
Cape Canaveral is submerged by 2015 Yes - 100/1
Cape Henry is submerged by 2015 Yes - 200/1
Cape May is submerged by 2015 Yes - 200/1
*To qualify as proven, "the government would have to announce in a statement that the study is without flaw and also conclude it is real without any scientific doubt," BetUS.com spokesman Reed Richards said.


I bet that the earth will warm by .5 degree farenheit by 2050 but by then i will probably have forgeotten. Anyone take me up on it. I bet 100 US dollars.

Answer 4

I wish it could be100%. But conservatively about 10%. I was just wondering whether you have taken into consideration that the earth's core is cooling and the sun's heat should also gradually cool. From a layman's point of view, nothing will burn forever, but you have the figures Dana and probably worked that out. Normally the earth should be cooling but instead its warming at an alarming rate which could only be due to excessive emissions of burning fossil fuels into the atmosphere.

Answer 5

I think there is a 95% chance global warming will not be catastrophic, therefore there is a 95% chance the theory of global warming is wrong.

Solar activity has entered a weak cycle, so temps should go down for the next 11 years. The PDO just entered its cool phase, so temps should go down for the next 30 years.

Up to half of the observed warming appears not to be real but an artifact of poorly sited weather stations, so there appears to be no reason to be afraid of global warming.

Answer 6

I'd like to beleive that there's at least a 20% chance that anthropogenic global warming may be grossly overstated or irrelevant, but I'm having a difficult time finding a statistically significant number of credible data points casting any doubt on AGW.

Answer 7

Pollution damages the environment =100% fact.
If global warming is real, it will damage the environment =100% fact
The same things that are attributed to global warming are damaging to the environment = 100% fact
Global warming isn't the only reason to promote sustainable practices in agriculture and fuel/energy production = 100% fact

there is no reason to argue whether or not we need to control or reduce emissions for the sake of a reducing the effects of global warming. the damage it does to the environment regardless of global warming, should be a good enough reason.

Answer 8

Many of your points are hardly facts. What level of confidence have you (for example) on historical CO2 levels? How is Milankovitch measuring solar output? What is the evidence (or significance, for that matter) that the planet is warming more at night than during the day?
The demonstrable evidence of polar warming, animal and vegetation migration patterns, and the increasing rate in atmospheric change are more than enough to convince me that anthropogenic climate change is pretty near 100% certainty.
Whether it is slightly, mostly, or almost entirely anthropogenic is open to discussion, but claiming some of the putative evidence is "scientific fact" gives license to the flat earth society to claim the evidence is not compelling, when it certainly is.

Steve Bornfeld

Answer 9

10% --> Most reputable climate scientists believe that human activities (from cars to cows for food) are very likely to blame for the amazingly fast and unprecedented increase in global temperatures. I happen to follow a lot of science news, not the media per se.

And...given that Bush has been trying to suppress evidence all the time, it makes it even more likely that humans are causing global warming (Joke...)

Also - please note...that whole thing about Bees and Cell phones was completely discredited... just some speculation from incomplete research blown out of propotion.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2000/ast20oct_1.htm

So, is the horse dead yet? Anyway, this link is a refreshingly "Fair and Balanced" discussion about how difficult it is to know what's going on... even if it is over 7 years old

Answer 10

I wouldn't know what percentage. I'm not a rocket scientist or anything but i do believe that global warming is happening. and its not because humans are on this earth its because of what were doing what were using what were creating.Like with toxic fumes. obviously its toxic for a reason its not good for us let alone animals or the air. i mean ways like that were destroying everything.

Like bees for example i know I'm going into a different subject but our cell phones have frequencies, radios tv satellite. right. bees use the frequencies in there own way to find ways home right. so since we've created so much of it bees are getting lost and dying because there not sure which way is home. once the bees die off. there goes out pollination source and food and everything else. and slowly were going to kill off the rest of the world. and just the same rate as global warming. so were kinds screwed either way you look at it. because of what were doing and were constantly advancing.

which is great don't get me wrong but seriously if crap really went down and we ended up having to literally survive to live technology really wont help at all. computers wont do you any good. its gong to come down to survival of the fittest. real life "surviver"