How can we predict global warming if we can't even predict the weather past a few day accurately?

Question

If we can't enter accruate weather data into the computer models, how can the computer models make accurate predictions?

Answer 1

There are many systems where, if one looks close enough, then almost nothing is known. However, if the larger picture is taken into account, certain models can be used to predict what can happen.

Take the heart, for instance. If we look at one cardiac cell, and one cross-bridge, can we say that it will compress a certain amount on the next contraction? No. But, if we look at the whole heart, we can relatively predict how much the heart will contract under certain conditions.

Then there are electrons. If someone asked for the exact location of an electron at an exact period of time, that's near, if not totally, impossible. However, if we look at an atom, we can say where the electron is most likely going to be.

What about radioactivity? If we look at a radioactive particle, can we tell when it will decay? No. It could instantly decay, or it could take millions of years. But, if we look at a lot of atoms, we can predict somewhat accurately how many will be left over a certain period of time.

In fact, nearly everything works in that way. Focus too hard on too minute of details, over too short of time, and things fall apart. Looking at the bigger picture, however, generally leads to better, more accurate, predictions.

Answer 2

I've been asking this exact same question for three years. However, I've been forced into the conclusion that it's something of a red herring. I don't believe in the global warming hoax any more than you seem to, but daily weather is harder to predict than overall climate, paradoxical as it sounds. With daily weather, we have a bunch of air masses that jostle with each other and with various geographic features, and they MIGHT cause something to happen. The planetary climate leaves rather indelible records of itself, particularly in ice and rock; geologists use those patterns to predict cycles and learn how and why the climate can shift so drastically.

The theory of global warming comes from circumstantial evidence uncovered in some of those records, with just a bit of the truth (the planet is indeed slightly warmer now than normal) and a heaping serving of lies (humans are causing it and the only way to fix it is to allow the government to intrude massively into our lives).

JakeS -- sorry to burst the pleasant little bubble of your indoctrination, but the Earth is a freaking rock. As are all planets except gas giants, which are no more alive than said freaking rock. Did you not learn this when you were in, I don't know, first grade?! (Witness the fruits of public education.)

Answer 3

I'd like to know why these sky-is-falling dummies don't address the fact that they were all clucking about global cooling not very long ago. All this nonsense about manmade global warming was foisted upon the population primarily by a moron who did absolutely zero about it when he was in a position to have some influence on policy. As more and more scientists get a chance to evaluate the data it will become more and more clear Algore is nothing more than an alarmist idiot with too much time on his hands.

Answer 4

People, especially scientists, are arrogant. Our lives are a fly spec in time, yet we think a few ice core samples can prove Global Warming is a man made phenomenon.

Nobody likes to think that they don't know the answers to everything. It takes a certain amount of arrogance to claim supreme knowledge of something when there is almost no conclusive irrefutable evidence to support it.

As our knowledge grows, this whole global warming concept will be seen as foolish as the world being flat, or the earth being the center of the universe.

Answer 5

Global warming is the single biggest hoax ever perpetrated on the world and it has a failsafe defense.

"Why, you're not against the environment are you?"

"What about our children's future?"

"Isn't it better to do something rather than nothing?"

"You're not in favor of pollution are you?"

There is no imminent threat. Get some sleep. Worry about things that actually impact people's lives rather than the global warming/global cooling/we're all gonna burn/the next ice age is coming hysteria being recycled to us through career alarmists whose main goal is to continue siphoning money from the government teat to keep funding their neverending studies to prove that more studies should be done.

Answer 6

Exactly. This is why I don't lose sleep over global warming. Many experts in climatology, meteorology and related sciences don't believe the data supports that global warming is primarily man-made.

Answer 7

Very good point. In fact, some highly reputable scientists believe that global warming is one of the worst hoaxes of our time. In my opinion, global warming might be happening, but it has raised about .5 degrees in a hundred years, come on! Al Gore should find a mental hospital.

Answer 8

Weather is chaotic like rapids in a river, but not being able to predict the movement of the water in detail does not prevent us from predicting that the water will flow downhill and end up in the ocean.

Answer 9

It's a lot easier to predict bigger patterns.

A metaphor: when you watch The Price is Right, there's a game called Plinko. Familiar with it? When a contestant releases the plinko chip and it strikes the first little peg, it's almost impossible to predict which side it's going to head, left or right. However, based on laws of probability (and gravity, friction, and a few laws of motion), if you drop enough plinko chips, we can reasonbly predict the relative frequency of each score (which will be about even across the dollar amounts).

Ditto with the weather. Can we perfectly predict how air mass x is going to move tomorrow or the next day? Not just within 100 miles, but perfectly? Nope. But when we look at overall global conditions, based on what we know about chemistry and physics, we can reasonbly predict what the overall pattern will be across the long haul.

Hotter. Smaller ice caps on the poles, more deserts, less fresh water.

Answer 10

Bingo!

The NWS (National Weather Service) and recorded weather history are still too young for anyone to be making such grand claims such as "global warming."