In one month, an asteroid might hit mars and...?

Question

there is a 1 in 75 chance that it will happen. If it does, it will create a crater the size of the one in Arizona, and actual balls of fire will be shot out into the universe. What do you think? Did you even know about this? Thanks!

Answer 1

owww Fireworks! ^^

Answer 2

1 in 75 is not a great chance. In this case it is not even a chance. It is an uncertainty for a hypothesis. What does that mean?

It means that whether that body will hit Mars or not has been decided by nature months, years, decades or even centuries ago. Nature knows the answer already. It is us who do not know the answer.

So we set up a hypothesis called "This body will hit Mars at that time." and then we calculate the error bars according to our best available orbital observations. As time goes on, these error bars change and so does the prediction. At some point in time the error bars will be insignificant and then we will know natures answer with near 100% certainty.

And if you ask me, that answer is probably. Nope. No fireworks for you. The only reason that we haven't received that message, yet, is because our error bars are so large that Mars lies still within a 2.something sigma ellipse of the calculated trajectory. If the trajectory prediction was better than the conservative error bars and the actual trajectory falls outside of Mars, the ellipse will shrink quickly and then the news will die down.

Should the real trajectory intersect and the body hit, which would be an absolutely great event for science, everybody will be happy and all the people who don't understand the distinction between winning the lottery and chances of winning the lottery will be scared out of their minds.

:-)

PS: If you want to speak of real probabilities, you would have to look at impact rates on Mars. And an impact of that size is probably a lot less frequent than it would have to be to see at least one event during the total human observation time of Mars. Now that would lead to a real probability when asking the question: "How likely is it to see such an impact over 200 years of Mars observation?"

Answer 3

A newly discovered hunk of space rock has a 1 in 75 chance of slamming into the red planet on January 30.These odds are extremely unusual. We frequently work with really long odds when we track ... threatening asteroids.The asteroid, known as 2007 WD5, was discovered in late November and is similar in size to an object that hit remote central Siberia in 1908, unleashing energy equivalent to a 15-megaton nuclear bomb and wiping out 60 million trees. NASA will wait two years longer than planned and spend another $40 million to launch a half-billion-dollar probe to Mars because of an unspecified conflict of interest in the purchasing process.NASA will have no Mars mission in 2011. The Mars Scout program had scheduled a 2011 launch of the $475 million Mars atmospheric probe and was going to choose proposals for the mission from one of two Colorado research institutions. But a "serious" conflict of interest in one of the proposals forced NASA to disband the board formed to pick the proposal, officials said, declining to elaborate.The agency created an entirely new panel, and that caused a delay in awarding the contract.. And since Mars only comes close enough to Earth to launch probes every 26 months, NASA had to postpone the mission from 2011 to 2013.NASA will have no Mars mission in 2011, the first time in more than a decade that the U.S. space agency will miss an opportunity to explore the red planet. A European 2011 probe earlier had been postponed to 2013 and only Russia is talking about a 2011 mission.Delay would increase the cost "slightly" because it would involve more years and inflation. Pressed by reporters, he said that meant about $40 million, but it could be less.

Answer 4

well it may create a crater, but balls of fire will not shoot out into space. Most likely the odds of a collision will become less as more research into the asteroids' orbit is done. The worst is that a global dust storm might encompass Mars.

Answer 5

Yes, I heard. I am not sure about the balls of fire being shot out in to the universe though. It is a pretty small asteroid.

Answer 6

I hadn't heard about this event. Could you cite a source for the information?

Answer 7

that's interesting.