Fun Question for today: If you were an Odds Maker what odds would you put on these three things happening?

Question

Global Warming - (I'm referring to either Anthropogenic or Natural)

The Yellowstone Volcano erupting.

Another large Meteor hitting the earth.

(Example:

Global Warming - 2:1

Yellowstone Valcano Erupting - 50:1

Large Meteor Impact - 1000:1)

And to help me decide on the best answer, please give me a short explanation on why you chose those odds.

I don't say this often, but Dana's right I did miss giving a timeframe.

Let's go with happening sometime between now 2007 and 2100. (22nd Century.)

Quick - I think your pushing it a little on the Lions winning the Superbowl odds.

Okay my odds for the Vikings winning the Superbowl before the turn of the next century are 1,000,000:1. Yes sadly they have let me down one too many times, just like the government.

Answer 1

Global warming 1:1 (it's already happening)

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/recenttc_triad.html

Yellowstone Eruption within the next century: 100,000:1

Difficult because we don't yet fully understand the system. However, the last major eruption there was 630,000 years ago, and it seems to erupt roughly once every 700,000 years. So we're 90% of the way to the average timeline for the next eruption, but 100 years out of 700,000 is only 0.014%. In other words, a century is a small timeframe, so we're not likely to see an eruption during that period.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera

Large Meteor Impact within the next century: 45,000:1

I stole this one from NASA.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_event#Near_misses_and_forecasts

Answer 2

Global warming is happening now, and has been for 100 years or more. 100 years in the future the effects will be slightly, but not extremely , more pronounced. 1 to 1 is really only a 50% chance, once chance it will and one it won't, so better than 1 to 1.

None of those other things will happen. I guess 1,000 to 1 against. Maybe a million to one for the large meteor.

Answer 3

Global warming (man made) - 99%. That's the actual estimate of the scientists.

Yellowstone. Less than 1% in your lifetime. More science, although less certain.

Large Meteor. Way less than 1%. The last one was millions of years ago.

There's a reason why world leaders are working hard on the first problem, and ignoring the last two.

Answer 4

Global Warming - 1:1

The Yellowstone Volcano erupting - 72:1

Another large Meteor hitting the earth.
98,765,437,543,987:1

Answer 5

Global Warming - 20:1 It will warm and it will cool. Climates never change

Yellowstone Valcano Erupting - 100:1 It is practically inevitable. It is unknown if it will be 1 year, 10,000 years or a 100,000 years

Large Meteor Impact - 1000:1) Also inevitable. Just a matter of time unless we have technology to prevent it.

Answer 6

All three will happen the question in our life time.

I would say global warming will happen follow by a cooling cycle.

It appears that cycle is with in our lifetime.

Yellowstone I don't know but I am sure when it does it will be a big surpise for all of us.

I am not worried about a metor impact.

I live my life to enjoy the time I have been given.

Answer 7

Global warming - No odds because there is no such thing.
Yellowstone erupting 2-1 . I'm not saying tomorrow but it will erupt one day.
Meteor 5-1 We are being hit with small ones on a daily basis. Its a matter of time when we are hit with big one.

Answer 8

Global warming: 1.1:1

Yellowstone volcano: 1,000,000:1

Metor: 500,000:1

Lions winning the Super Bowl: 10:1.

Sorry I had to throw that last one in there!

Answer 9

Manmade global warming....1,000,000,000,000,000/1
Yellowstone eruption...........100/1
Large meteor...........100,000,000/1
A liberal having an original thought and not a talking point from the DNC.......999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999/1 against.