NEED! are summer and fall of 2008 going to be unusually warm?

Question

Vital to know. - California/Nevada region in particular.

farmers almanac does a decent job, as does the EarthSim - dont reply without a decent answer.

Answer 1

Based on the latest trends, it appears that that area will have about a 40 to 50 percent chance for above normal temperatures during that time period. You can go here to see the latest projections from the Climate Prediction Center:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

Answer 2

We can't and never will be able to make a forecast for such a long time.
In the 1950s, a meteorologist was studying results from one of the first computerized weather simulators. He ran a model that ended always the same way. One day, he wanted to observe the end result without running the entire model that took a long time. He then entered the data he knew were valid for the half of the simulation, in order to save time, and when he got to the end, it was an entirely different weather pattern! That's because his entries were decimals and the computer translated that to binaries with a tiny little bit of rounding. That was enough to offset entirely the model. From that came the concept of the 'butterfly effect' which says that the wing flapping of a butterfly in the rain forest is enough to create a storm in the temperated latitudes months after.
Another image used is this: Two tree leaves are floating on the water and fall in a water fall. Can you calculate the distance between them after the reappear on the surface of the water later on? I think not. The same goes for the weather in California and Nevada for the next summer and fall. Sorry.

Answer 3

There is no way to tell 100% accurate this far out. We can look at climatological pasts and make a forecast like they do for the winter but still may not be accurate.

Answer 4

AS YOU KNOW SUMMER IS HOT!!!