Might 30% of the world's land birds could go extinct by 2100 due to global warming?

Question

"A study conducted by a team of Stanford researchers has drawn out a grim scenario of what is likely to befall land-bird species worldwide as average temperatures continue to rise"

"Using data from the latest IPCC summary report and a wide range of likely scenarios, Sekercioglu and his colleagues modeled changes to the elevational limits of the ranges of over 8,400 species; the worst-case scenario of a 6.4°C temperature uptick produced the 30% extinction projection."

"Of greatest concern is the authors' finding that each extra degree of warming will have increasingly disproportionate consequences: For example, if current temperatures were to rise by 1°C, we would likely see 100 extinctions; assuming temperatures were to rise by 5°C, however, an additional 1°C then would trigger a much larger number of extinctions, 300-500."

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/12/climate_change_land_bird_extinctions.php

What do you think of these scientists' grim conclusions?

Francis - I've repeatedly let you know that it's happening. Your denial does not change reality.

http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2007/08/t2000.jpg

Speaker - sorry, I didn't realize that Stanford University was a liberal source. I guess everything outside Fox News and Rush Limbaugh is liberal. My bad.

Answer 1

Honestly, if the world's temp increases 6.4C, losing 30% of the world's bird species would be the least of our worries. If the temp increases that much I'd be much more worried about the Billions of people in the world that won't be able to get enough food and water. I'd be a lot more worried about the wars that will break out over the world's dwindling resources. All those birds going extinct makes for a sad story, but there's much more important things to think about before that.

Answer 2

I think that global warming will be the thing that tips the balance for many species. This is because currently many species survive in small pockets of land or isolated areas, are impacted on by poaching and reduced feeding and breeding grounds. An increase in temperature could change food sources, increase fires and other natural disasters or make conditions in these pockets unsustainable. It will be a combination of factors that reduces there ability of these animals to survive. In the past it’s been the specialists that died off first. So most likely this time it will be the animals that have specific food sources or specific nesting sites. They will not respond well to change. It will be the generalists that have the ability to alter food sources or nesting sites. Similarly changes in predator prey dynamics could change pressures on birds. For example if predators disappears or are reduced there could be a temporary population explosion before a die off due to low food availability. This has been seen before in many systems where keystone organisms have been removed.

I may only take a very minor shift in temperature or weather conditions to disrupt birds enough to cause some extinction. The extinction of competitors or predators may result in unstable populations leading to further extinctions. Yes in the past animals have evolved to change to conditions bet each time a huge number of organisms have become extinct and taken hundreds of thousands of years to recover.

Anyone who understands ecology will know that the removal of even one species that seems insignificant can have a huge impact on all other animals and plants in the food web.

Answer 3

If you get your sources from the IPCC, then you could make all kinds of "grim conclusions."
The IPCC is a political body, and should not have any authority to present data in such an authoritative fashion. Some people will no doubt say that the IPCC is an organization of the "top 2,500 scientists." But the so-called consensus that the IPCC flaunts around are are not even all qualified scientists. Many of them are physicists, doctors, or even politicians with no scientific background whatsoever.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=0ea8dc23-ad1a-440f-a8dd-1e3ff42df34f&p=1

Even if all of the 2,500 members/authors of the IPCC were scientists, the fact that so many of them "agreed" with the theory of anthropogenic global warming wouldn't mean that they were right. After all, everyone used to believe the earth was flat, and the "consensus" lie was used in the 70's.

http://www.americandaily.com/article/17656
http://www.canadafreepress.com/2007/global-warming020507.htm

Dana, if you want creditable sources, you might want to look somewhere besides a site called "treehugger.com." I'd think that a scientist like you would know not to trust such blatantly biased sources.

(I like your new name. It makes you seem really impressive and reliable.)

~~punker_rocker

Answer 4

Well it could happen......

But then again we could lose 50% of birds or 2% of all land birds. We can't really predict as to how many species of birds we will lose in the upcomming years. Its like i said before, we can't predict what will exactly happen in our future, we can only predict on what has happened and by what data we have from pervious years. I think something is going to happen, its just a matter of how extreme it will be.

Answer 5

Darwin will win out...species will adapt or die off. That's nature's way. I don't know that artificially saving species that can no longer survive is the right thing to do. Nature has a way of creating her own eco-systems without our interference. I trust nature much more than man.

Answer 6

How do we know that 30% of the world's land birds HAVEN'T ALREADY gone extinct? After all, birds are claimed to have descended from dinosaurs, so perhaps 90-95% of "birds" have already gone extinct. Nonetheless, through all of that, the earth has somehow avoided becoming "doomed."

Answer 7

There is no proof that any temperatures have risen yet. None of that data is accurate enough. How do you know we aren't going through a natural warming period. The earth does have cycles you know! How do you know that at the time we started using meteorology, it was a unusually cold period? We haven't had precise enough science long enough to make these assumptions.

Answer 8

I think that like many other dire predictions made (e.g. "An Inconvenient Truth"), they are hyperbole used to raise awareness. Actually, these are hyperbole squared since they are based on inflated, worst case scenarios, that no responsible scientists support.

Answer 9

Wouldn't fewer birds lessen the likelihood of an Avian Flu Pandemic?

I'd say that's a good thing.

Answer 10

i would say its called evolution, and it happens with every species. just like, why is this forrest an oak forrest now when it use to be a maple forrest. why are the birds that once were here gone now?