Five years from now - Will the Climate be Warmer or Cooler than today?

Question

And how do you know?
What do you base your answer on? Is it just the word of others, or your faith that global warming is real? Or do you have a formula that shows what the temperatures will be for different concentrations of co2?

How do you know your answer is any more correct than a coin toss?

Answer 1

No one knows. All they have is poor computer models and even worse speculation.

Answer 2

<< Five years from now - Will the Climate be Warmer or Cooler than today? >>

Warmer.

<< And how do you know? >>

The laws of thermodynamics and physical properties of the greenhouse gases.

<< What do you base your answer on? Is it just the word of others, or your faith that global warming is real? >>

Again, the laws of thermodynamics and physical properties of the greenhouse gases.

<< Or do you have a formula that shows what the temperatures will be for different concentrations of co2? >>

Yes, but there's far more to it than just different concentrations of CO2. Projections aren't derived from one single formula but the sum of many different formulas.

<< How do you know your answer is any more correct than a coin toss? >>

Once again, the laws of thermodynamics and physical properties of the greenhouse gases.

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I know you want to believe the world will be cooler in 5 years time but that's a physical impossibility. Basic scientific laws dictate that the atmopshere has no option but to warm up.

There is a physical reaction taking place in the atmopshere, it won't just stop because we want it to.

Dec 15 2012 may be coolder than today, the whole of December may be cooler than the current month, 2012 may be cooler than 2007 but that will be the result of short term variables. The long term underlying trend has to be one of warming and unless there's some catastrophic change occasioned by an asteroid strike, nuclear war or event of similar magnitude then the planet will be warmer.

Answer 3

To tell if any particular day will be warmer than the same day 5 years before would be just about as hard as guessing the result of a coin toss. However, looking at the coming 5 years and comparing the average temperature statistics with the past 5 years, I'm pretty sure the next 5 years will show a warming trend.

Answer 4

Gee, where's it been going since 1910? Have you looked at this paper yet?

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20071210_GISTEMP.pdf

It was released Monday, showing temperatures through November, it debunks the "it's variation in solar radiation" theory, and it handles the "if only the chart went back past the 1950's" objections we see here so often.

Yes, the amount of temperature rise due to greenhouse gas forcing seems to be handled here:

http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2004/2004_Hansen_Sato.pdf

"How do you know your answer is any more correct than a coin toss?"

The 100 year record and the models based on it are the best we have to go on at the moment. This was all debated as researchers presented what they had up to 1998, then 2001-2007 were the warmest years on record. That's a lot less probable than a coin toss.

Answer 5

No one knows, but if I was a betting man, my money would be on warmer. At the current rate of global temperature increase, it is going to take 20-50 years to reach the maximum temperatures seen during the last several warming cycles.

Answer 6

Warmer. Because of scientific data (some listed below).

CO2 is causing more solar heat to be retained, and the Earth to warm. Since the heat capacity of the Earth is huge, temperatures have not yet caught up to even the present amount of CO2, much less the increases we're liable to see in 5 years. Warming is certain.

Individual years may be high or low, but I'm defining warming by the red line here, the "five year rolling average". I expect it to keep going up, and, even if it falters a little (not likely) I'm certain it will be higher in 2012, than 2007.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif

I do accept these guys science as to the cause (not just because of this one paper, but a mountain of stuff that confirms it):

Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, C.A. Ammann, J.M. Arblaster, T.M.L. Wigleym and C. Tebaldi (2004). "Combinations of Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings in Twentieth-Century Climate". Journal of Climate 17: 3721-3727

summarized at:

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Climate_Change_Attribution.png

Answer 7

Based on trends of the past, it is more inclined to cool for a few decades and warm up for a few decades after that. It is hard for anyone to say that we are heading for catastrophic results because we have been warmer in the recent past (medieval times were warmer than it is today) without catastrophic results. In fact, agriculture was the main supporter of economies (including areas that are considered to be cold today) and that was attributed to the warm climate.

The Earth may cool or it may warm up. No one knows and that's why no one will say they know. We will just have to wait and see.

Answer 8

Well here in Britain, only we have to be so different, that we cool as everyone else heats up. This is because rising temperatures, will disrupt seas' patterns. This will virtally destroy the gulf streams affect on Britain. We'll cool from this.

As for the coin toss thing, some coins are heavier on one side, this wil cause them to land on this side. eg. If the Head is heavier, it will land on this and you'll get tails.

Answer 9

I think they will be cooler. These predictions are better than a coin toss because they are based on cycles that have occurred in the past. There is no better way to make predictions about the future than to understand what has happened in the past.

http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=bfeddc8e-90d7-4f54-9ca7-1f56fadc7c2b

http://www.spacedaily.com/news/pacific-02n.html

.
.

Answer 10

Nobody really knows the answer. In the 70's they thought the next Ice Age was coming. Look now, ice is melting. Who really knows how the earth is really going to react. What ever happens someone will be out there on their soapbox saying the end is near.

Answer 11

I don't think anyone knows for sure, but it will be different.
I have read http://iceagenow.com/
and http://www.realclimate.org/

what I learned from all that is that we really have no clue, and the largest weather change in the last 10 thousand years happened a few years ago, and that all the new underwater volcanoes are changing our climate lots, by what i have seen, I would guess we are headed for an ice age.

I say prepare for the ice age, hope for good weather.