Has the weather been more on time in the UK this winter?

Question

I'm in Essex in England, and in recent years the trees have taken a long time to lose their leaves. I remember a few years ago noticing how a lot of the trees still had a lot of their leaves by this time of year. But this year I have noticed that they were pretty much mostly gone by the end of November. And today there was frost and ice about and the wind has been quite bitter. Has anyone else noticed things being more normal and does anyone know of any articles on the the weather this winter, supporting or opposing my observation?

Answer 1

It really depends on what you call 'normal'.

In the UK 'normal' in terms of the climate is measured against the average conditions between 1961 and 1990, it's what we call the Base Period. It's a good base period to use because it includes a period of cooling, one of warming and one of steady temperatures ,so it gives a good average.

This year has been one of the warmest on record, the final figures aren't in yet but it looks like making it into the top 10 warmest years (records date from 1850).

Ordinarily, trees should shed their leaves in Sep to Nov but this has been creeping steadily later into the year and now it's typically Oct to Dec - it depends on local weather conditions, the type of tree and where in the UK you are. Not surprisingly, trees in the north of Scotland shed their leaves earlier than those in the south of England.

The leaves this year fell later than normal but because this has happened now for many years it's almost become expected that trees don't shed their leaves until November (autumn is supposed to be more like October).

In terms of frost, this too has arrived late this year. By this time of year there should have been several days of frost. I'm not sure where you are in Essex so I'll give a couple of examples...

Clacton usually experiences it's first frost in early November and by Dec 15th would normally have had 9 days of frost. Because Clacton is on the coast it is slightly warmer at this time of year than places that are inland.

Great Dunmow (Roffey) normally experiences it's first frost in late October and by this time of year would normally have had 11 frosty nights.

Where I am (on the edge of the Yorkshire Pennines) we had one frosty night in October, one in November and the last three nights. Last night was the coldest night so far this year and temps dipped to a low of -5.5°C, the ground frost didn't melt all day yesterday in places where the sun didn't shine. According to local records, there used to be snow most Decembers but this hasn't happened since 1979 (much to my disappointment as I love the snow).

So overall, things aren't really normal although they may seem like it because we've grown accustomed to late autumns and warmer conditions.

Answer 2

I am in Dublin Ireland.This year I have noticed that the Leaves were staying that much longer on the trees, and also the Flowers ,like Rose Blossoms. The Petunia in the Garden still had Flowers on it up to last Week until they were mostly blown off by the Winds. The leaves all of a sudden starting falling off the Trees like you said at the end of November.All the different types of Trees have different times for Shedding their Leaves,some last longer than others .But this Year Winter seemed to come in all of a sudden, with the first big Storm of the Year,the Weather was Mild before that and then suddenly it all changed. The Mahonia/Oregon Grape has lovely Yellow Flowers in my Garden and there are some Bees still getting Nectar from it, and the Perennial Geranium still has some Flowers. I would say the change was sudden from good Weather to Winter Weather ,and it was slowly changing before that. The Weather is now very Cold and Icy,and a couple of Mornings had Ice on the Car Roofs.

Answer 3

I live on the corner of Cringle and Kirtling Streets, right near the the Battersea Power station, and it seems to me that Winter has arrived early and the trees are taking longer to lose their leaves.