Do you think the predictions for next year's hurricane season are accurate?

Question

CSU have just released their predictions for the 2008 hurricane season and are predicting 13 names storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, do you think this this is an accurate prediction?

The long term average is 9.6 names storms per year, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes.

This time last year they made their predictions for 2007 stating they beleived there would be 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. On each count they were out by just one (actual activity being 15, 6 and 2).

Answer 1

Hurricane strength and frequency is driven by small changes in ocean temperatures, so higher sea temps will create more and stronger storms, but any one year is fairly irrelevant since there are always fluctuations from year to year.

However, that randomness also makes it unlikely that there will be a cluster of high or low hurricane seasons. If there is a statistically significant incidence, then that raises the probability that there is an underlying trend that may have underlying causes.

In other words, it makes no difference what the forecast is (high or low), whether or not the actual totals meet the forecast, or whether or not the actual total is high.

The one case that would be troubling would be if the total were unusual AND that indicated an underlying trend.

Here's what I find on the current discussion on the topic:

http://www.overpopulation.org/globalWarming.html
The number of hurricanes each year has doubled over the past century, tied to global warming. Researchers found that average hurricane numbers jumped during the 20th century, from 3.5 per year in the first 30 years to 8.4 in the earliest years of the 21st century. Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures increased .65 degrees. The extent to which this can be blamed on human activities has been the subject of scientific debate over the past two years. The new study drew criticism from experts who dispute the merits of combining data from the late 19th and early 20th centuries, with statistics gleaned from more modern technology. "They're saying there's a long, upward trend of the last 100 years in tropical storms. All the data I have looked at show that's not the case," says scientist William Gray a critic of the view that human-induced greenhouse gases drive climate and hurricanes, 19th-century data "is just not that good." While 2006 was a quiet year for hurricanes, with five storms, 100 years ago it would have been considered a very stormy year and 20 years ago, it would have been an average year.
July 30, 2007 USA Today

So at least one researcher is inclined to throuw out 19th century data, but that may simply delay our acknowledgement of any trend that might be occuring, so advocating that view may increase risk while we wait for enough new numbers that we're willing to accept so we can be more comfortable recognizing a trend.

Meanwhile, the insurance industry seems to acknowledge a trend and is taking steps accordingly:

Lloyd's Head Warns on Effects of Climate Change.

The windstorm season will lengthen and its impact will be felt over a wider area because of climate change. Natural catastrophes doubled between the 1960s and 1990s, but insured losses increased sevenfold. In 2005 global insurance claims reached $83 billion, with U.S. hurricanes accounting for 80%. Warmer sea-surface temperatures will mean longer storm seasons. Lloyd's believes a $100 billion catastrophe could occur anywhere on the U.S. Atlantic coast, and called for an examination of unsound building and location decisions. Lloyd's is talking with U.S. industry leaders to form a high-level task force to examine the implications of climate change.
January 19, 2007 Business Insurance

Answer 2

There is no problem with predictions; it is an expected activity, so weather forecasters follow the norm or expected. The problem comes with the reality of the experience. In all of my years, I never expected that we would have a hurricane season in which we went into the Greek alphabet or had a hurricane so close to Christmas(as with Epsilon). I understand from research that there have been hurricanes outside the set season- as in January, February and March. Yesterday, I read about a storm brewing off Puerto Rico; and it is almost mid-December. I guess it is better to predict too much than to be caught off guard with the unexpected.

Answer 3

I think they are accurate, the general assumption that the La-Nina condition will last through at least the first half of 2008, if not the entire year. If that happens the 2008 season should be very similar to 2007. The El-Nino's which tend to deter hurricane development should be much less frequent over the next three decades.

Answer 4

Trever - The only reason why the hurricane numbers came close in 2007 as because the numbers were inflated.

Manufactured data is a good cause to show how bogus "global warming" really is.

"Some meteorologists, including former hurricane center director Neil Frank, say as many as six of this year’s 14 named tropical systems might have failed in earlier decades to earn “named storm” status."

“They seem to be naming storms a lot more than they used to,” said Frank, who directed the hurricane center from 1974 to 1987 and is now chief meteorologist for KHOU-TV. “This year, I would put at least four storms in a very questionable category, and maybe even six.”

But this season’s large number of minimal tropical storms whose winds exceeded 39 mph for only a short period has ignited a separate debate: whether even more modern technology and a change in philosophy has artificially inflated the number of storms in recent years.

What other "data" are you inflating to make "global warming" seam worse than it really is? The science should always be questioned.

Answer 5

The forecast is quite reasonable based on the current observations and predicted trends. The main problem is of course is not how many and how strong, but simply WHERE these systems will track. That cannot be forecasted with any real skill this far out. The last two seasons have been active, but fortunately no strong tropical system has made a U.S. landfall since 2005.

Answer 6

I think they named that many storms, last hurricane season, so they wouldn't look like utter imbeciles. You talked about predictions in an answer you gave yesterday. And sounded like you were against trying to predict anything. So now why this question about the prediction of hurricanes?

Also I'm sure you realize they recalculated how they categorize Hurricanes and Tornadoes.

Answer 7

There is another problem with last years predictions. It seems that they got a little carried away with storm naming. Several of the storms they named did not meet the criteria for naming. One named storm was not even tropical in nature.

So it is becoming a self fulfilling prophecy.

Merry Christmas!

Answer 8

What, may I ask, does this have to do with global warming? ;-)

Answer 9

i would not bet my paycheck on it.
they are seldom right