does card counting work?

Question

I cannot seem to make it work... I am alsoVERY sspicious that all it really is a progressive betting system,,, that NEVER works,,,, the problem is when you have gone to a 10X bet and lose

I seem toalways revert back toflat betting and DEAD ON basic strategy

Answer 1

Oh, it always works, but against a six deck shoe like they usually have in casinos the counting effect is rendered pretty ineffective. You'll notice that in casinos that use single and double deck they payouts are different to favor the casino still.

Answer 2

It does, but in the short run you can be unlucky and lose. Just as you can easily be lucky and win with basic strategy despite the slight disadvantage. I think you need a large enough bankroll so that you can handle large losses when you aren't winning.

For example, if you are at a $15 table and have a bankroll of only $500, you can easily lose it all if you have a few $60 or $75 bets and lose, perhaps even a double down or split loss thrown in. And you are going up to 10x, so of course this is a problem unless you have a lot of cash to risk. I'm not an expert on this, but I don't think your expected return is more than a few percentage points in your favor, so it isn't anything close to a sure win. Maybe you should limit your bets to 5x the minimum and see how that goes. Also, too wide a spread might tip the casinos to your card counting, but perhaps they don't care if you're a small bettor or you're losing.

I've tried card counting a few times, but I'm not that good so I can only do it with the slower dealers. In addition to the bankroll problem that you have, I also found that I had to concentrate too much and wasn't able to relax and enjoy the game, so I don't bother anymore, and just play basic strategy.

Answer 3

First off, card counting is NOT a progressive betting system. Progressive systems rely on previous wins and losses to determine your bet. Card counting relies on the concentration of good cards in the deck to determine bet size. Whether you won or lost previous bets has no bearing on your current or future bets.

Secondly, you probably aren't playing a well as you think. 99% of people who think they've got basic strategy memorized do not, and they often make huge mistakes that increase the house edge.

I don't think card counting is as difficult as other people seem to think, but you still must be accurate. If you lose count or are not doing the math correctly in your head, you're not gaining any advantage.

And lastly, remember that card counting takes a lot of hands to really see an advantage, and it's not uncommon to have huge losing streaks. Even when the count is huge you're still only going to win about 52% of the hands you play. So even with a favorable count, you can easily lose 10 or more hands in a row, and have days or weeks of consecutive losing sessions.

Anyway, I think EVERYONE should learn to count at single and double deck games. Not that you gain a huge advantage, but if you're going to bother playing more than a couple of times, it's not something that is that hard to learn and you will always be better off with the extra information. Going pro isn't a great idea, but if you're sitting at a table trying to decide if you should bet $10 or $30, it's nice to know how the cards are flowing rather than just randomly guessing.

Answer 4

I do not personally believe that the normal 'book' versions of card counting work sufficiently well for them to be a practical way of winning money from a casino. Most casinos tolerate small time card counters (and they are easy to spot), because they are generally winning back their own money, and to watch a guy who outside the casino earns $100,000 a year acting as an unpaid 'shill' for the ten bucks an hour he can make by doing intensive mental arithmetic is quite funny.

On the other hand, - there are a not insignificant number of people about who genuinely can give themselves a big edge against the house. One of the best I heard of calculated his edge at 23% - so what are they doing?

My belief is that they are largely using systems based on 'locator' techniques. That is, they have spotted how extremely difficult it is to produce a genuinely random shuffle. They are exploiting the regular patterns conserved by passing cards through a series of riffle shuffles, and (if this is the only shuffle used) may be able to exploit the fact that the cards are all packed in a sorted arrangement when newly opened.

It has been observed that 'cutting the deck deep' does not deter these people, while using a mixture of 'chemmy' shuffles and 'packet' shuffles in addition to the normal riffles does annoy them.

It is much easier to simply cheat, and cheating carries the same penalties (a ban, a prosecution, a hospital visit) depending on where in the world you try it.

Answer 5

It depends on a lot of factors.

Did you know for example, there are over 3,000 rule variations used in casinos that seriously affect your house edge?

The link I've given you allows you to see what the house edge is at your casino. There is a calculator that allows you to select the rule variations used at your casino and see how that compares to others. A few subtle changes can alter the house edge significantly.

Personally I've never understood the point of counting cards. It takes a year or so to really master it. Once you get good at it, you will find yourself kicked out if you start making good money with it. If you keep doing it you'll find yourself banned. So the best case scenario is you make a few grand and then find yourself banned from all the major casinos.

Why not invest the same time in becoming a great poker player. The casino doesn't care who wins at poker, so as long as you are better than average, you should be able to make some money.

Answer 6

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Answer 7

Yes card counting works, the shoes just get a more stable the more decks you have. I really doubt that you play dead on basic. Unless you counting alters the hold the casino won't bother you.

Answer 8

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The actual "math" skill for counting is minimal. However, if you are not good with numbers, then counting cards at blackjack is not for you. Keeping the count accurate AND figuring out exactly how much is the right bet depending on a few different factors makes doing it RIGHT not as easy as it sounds.

Answer 9

With a single deck, sure. Its effectiveness diminishes as more decks are used.

Although you'll note that casinos will ask you to leave if they catch you card counting, so it must have some effectiveness.

Answer 10

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