So why don't computer models take this into account?

Question

Global Warming melts the polar ice, causing a huge flow of fresh water which causes the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio Current to stop warming Northern Europe and the Northern Pacific. Subsequently, the Northern Hemisphere actually gets colder, causing the northern ice pack to reform, stopping the flow of fresh water, whereupon the to major currents restart, returning things back to about where they are now?

Could it be that the GW computer modelers don't actually want that result and the assumptions they enter (all models have to make assumptions) prevent that outcome? Or could it be that computer models just simply don't have the ability to model that complex a scendario (my guess)?

Answer 1

I'm sure there is something to the hype about global warming, and I don't think that your impression of what will happen with the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Current will happen.

However, you are dead on about computer models. Computer models are just like a model out of a box. If I buy a model of a car, it isn't going to turn out looking like a space ship. It is going to turn out looking like the instructions told it to look.
A computer model just follows the instructions of the programmer and the data he inputs. The model is going to come out the way the programmer wants it to. If the programmer is a doom and gloom believer, then the world melts in a week according to his model.

Answer 2

Why are you convinced that couple atmosphere-ocean cliamte models *don't* take thermohaline circulation (THC) into account? In fact, they do, and even a 5-s search with google/scholar will turn up any number of peer-reviewed articles discussing the effect of global warming on mean ocean circulation.

What the models predict is a generally slowing of the THC, but not a complete shutdown. More importantly, even if it shuts down, it leads to a regional cooling over Europe, not a hemispherical ice age. (And the hypothesized shutdown during the D-O events was more likely due to a massive freshwater influx from melting glaciers on N. America. This sort of massive pulse is not expected to occur with global warming.) What the climate models do show is that the predicted warming effects dominate the predicted cooling from the slowdown of the THC so there is warming of Europe anyway.

Your question falls into the "straw man" category, where you allege something bad that isn't true to begin with to smear modeling in general. If you skeptics want to start sounding credible, you need to stop relying on these tactics, which are easily deconstructed.

Answer 3

You're not really understanding this feedback correctly.

Melting polar ice will decrease the salinity of the oceans. If the salinity decreases sufficiently yes, this could stop the thermal conveyor in the Atlantic Ocean and throw Europe into an ice age. However, this is an unlikely scenario.

A much more likely scenario is that the decreased salinity will inhibit the ocean's ability to store CO2. As a result, the oceans will no longer be carbon sinks, which will cause more CO2 to accumulate in the atmosphere, which will accelerate global warming even faster.

There are several feedbacks like this which are not included in the computer models, because it's very hard to predict precisely at what temperature they will happen. These tipping points simply illustrate that climate model predictions are too conservative, and the danger is really greater than we're currently being warned.

Answer 4

Please tell your not honestly suggesting that it would be ok to let global warming continue because the shutdown of the thermahaline circulation would only be temporary?

Paleo-climatology has shown the circulation can shut down in a matter of months, but it can takes thousands of years to start up again! A shutdown would be DEVASTATING on world climate. A potential shutdown coinciding with a Maunder Mininum ( we're overdue for one) on the sun's surface could plunge the temperature of the ENTIRE planet ten degrees or more! Nations can't feed everyone as it is, any shutdown of the thermahaline circulation would be CATASTROPHIC!

Answer 5

What you're talking about is a local phenomena, which might affect some places, but not the whole Earth.

And the data indicates that disruptions to ocean currents might slow global warming down in Europe, but not stop it, much less cause cooling.

The effects of greenhouse gases are POWERFUL.

Answer 6

Uhm, the melting of Greenland Iceflow - reduced salinity- stopped ocean current- W. Eurpean Ice Age was originally predicted using a global warming model.

This was a BIG deal in GW circles when it was first predicted.

Also computer models are obviously guided by their computational limitations and programming biases. These biases are inherent because we don't know everything before hand. Models are run, tested and adjusted to find and remove these biases (I have designed many.)

It is typical of GW detractor tactics to use limited and incomplete understanding of the situation so as to fit their preconceived ideas. Learn the WHOLE truth before you decide.

Answer 7

The problem is they are fudging the data to give there results. It is not the computer's problem but non scientist trying to predict what the weather will be. If it is over a week it is just a guess.

Answer 8

Great 'Guess"!
You should see the Scientific Research projects thrown away or buried by the pharmaceutical industry to sell products like Celebrex (and dozens others) that have harmed far more than helped.
Look up the word IATROGENIC - you should see the millions killed over the years by "Death By Medicine/Doctor".

Answer 9

I hear ya .

Also of note is the fact that although there's melting going on in the north , the south pole region ice-pack is growing !!