I'm thnking that home mortgage rates will go as low as 5% and that home will probably decrease about 20 % in

Question

most markets and that prices will remain in a valley for about 8 to 10 years ...... What's your forecast ????

Answer 1

With another rate cut likely, and a general concern with liquidity and economic health over inflation, I don't see 30 year mortgage rates at 5%.
The real estate market is very regional, and in some case almost local. If a house in a trendy San Diego neighborhood went up 100% in 5 years, then sure a 20% decline is really not that much, unless you happened to buy at the market peak. Most major markets are already down 10%, so another 5-10% decline might be possible.
Setting aside the speculative actions that effected some markets, real estate is generally related to unemployment rates, job creation, and population growth.
So areas like Charlotte, Dallas, Chicago, etc will not see a 8-10 years of flat prices. Could prices in Detriot be flat for 10 years, sure. But that is related to problems in the auto industry.
a>

Answer 2

Damn I agree with ace again tonight. Im just following him around.

I think rates could get down to 5% as well. Prices of homes that low for 8-10 years is ridiculous.

Let me give you a senario. Lets say the US government knows we are going to war. They buy 1 tillion in forein bonds, then borrow 1 trillion in their own bonds back. Greenspan said this would be a great move.

Why we could actually make money on the war. Oh if we devalue the dollar. China is not on the open market and they are following the dollar. Do you not think for a second somebody thought about this? Do you not read the market and think America is trying to get the dollar as low as possible to pay back the war? Well if you dont you would disagree with any financial person in the world and its causing problems.

Watch for the dollar to fall, our rates to go down. Then the next administration ending the war. Paying the debts the the dollar skyrocking. Increasing home prices. We might start a war because we are killing our dollar on purpose. And we pay back at half the money.

Not saying I know much but it is part of what I do for a living.

Answer 3

I think you're wrong. Fixed rate mortgages will not hit 5%, maybe...maybe a bit below 6 (5.75). Better look again at home values. Most markets are hanging in there pretty well, a few states are doing poorly, and most of those had rediculous growth rates in the past five years. If they drop by 20%, they'll still be up 30-40% for the past five year period. Michigan is the exception, the market there is hit by the poor auto industry in Detroit AND the mortgage crisis. Don't read the yellow press headlines, read the entire article:

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomebuyingGuide/HomePriceReport.aspx

Answer 4

Well I hope the rates drop to 5%, I'll refinance and pay that sucker off early.

I think homes in some areas will decrease as much as 20%, if not more. But that will be in truly inflated areas like California. I don't think it will last 8-10 years, though. I think real estate will continue to increse in value as a whole starting in 2009, but it will increse in more modest amounts - like a steady 3-5% annual increase. What we are experiencing is a correction to the inflated prices we have seen in the past few years due to cheap and easy credit.

Answer 5

You are close but in Detroit it is past that. In ten years the retirement baby boomers will flood the market and drop prices again. The banks will tighten loans in December and the new home builders will go to Florida all winter. Your best prices are still yet to come. The American dollar stopped falling when it was learned a German bank bought up mortgages in USA . Email me if you are interested in Gulf property in Texas.

Answer 6

I think you're completely wrong about both issues. You might be a bit closer on the interest rate, but 5% is a push. As far as values dropping 20% and staying there for a decade, you're out in left field somewhere.

Answer 7

Real estate should not decrease unless it was overinflated to start with. I think home mortgage rates will go up a little. I also think that secondary lenders will be required to be a lot more cautious as to who is qualifies for mortgages.

Answer 8

houses will cost more to build in the coming years because the builders will all be looking for wage increases.

Answer 9

that's an interesting question I hope you will find valuable answers

Answer 10

Sounds really interested