Will This Winter Be Warmer or Colder?

Question

Will this winter be warmer or colder this year?

NOAA believes that most of the country is going to have above average temperatures.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif

The price of heating oil in increasing signaling a higher demand for heating oil this winter.
http://www.dailyfutures.com/charts/ho.gif

Who do you believe? A bunch of old men who can't get the number of hurricanes right every summer, or people who put their own money at risk for their own self interest?

Wow - I have to admit I didn't think people would be so quick to throw NOAA's forecasting under the bus so quickly.

I guess there's not much faith with the governments research department.

Answer 1

It may be warmer or cooler but the thing is you must remember the global warming is natural.

Answer 2

I hope it won't be warmer this year than the last one which was absurd here in Sweden. Not that I love the cold, but it was extremely rainy and windy instead of snowy and white.

In Sweden the meteorologists define "Winter" as the period when the average temperature goes below 0 degrees Celsius. Statistically since the 60th the average winter here has become one month shorter than it used to be. I don't expect this winter to change that trend.

B t w, why did you delete your question about the warming in the Southern Hemisphere? I'm just curious, didn't you like the answers?

Answer 3

Who cares. If it was the coldest year on record it wouldn't prove anything. Similarly if it were the warmest winter it would not prove anything. You would have to look at the trend over a long period of time and you would have to see what the global average was for winter in both northern and southern hemispheres.

If you look at all the predictions and actual readings the temperature is more likely to be above or below the average. Its the nature of averages. Its the long term actual reading that you look at and its easy to follow them and much harder to predict them. That said nearly every agency in the world is predicting above average temperatures. The reason demand for oil and oil prices are going up is because of uncertainty of supply, low oil reserves in the US and the war in Iraq and other conflicts in the middle east and Africa.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/temps_ahead.shtml

The question is at what point will the warming be attributed to human causes and when will the governments of the world change and start making reductions in emissions.

Guess what mate it was 29C today and then the sun went down and know its 17. That proves that global warming is a hoax.

Answer 4

It's difficult to say. The temperature over such a short time span is subject to large amounts of natural variation. It would be very difficult to make any accurate predictions about a single winter.

Based on what this Autumn has been like it Texas, it seems likely that we'll be experiencing a much warmer Winter here this year. Of course, it's also been colder than average in some areas.

The best we can do is to say that, on average, we should expect to see a larger number of warm Winters than usual.

Answer 5

Last year here in the N.W.,we had a strange winter. We hit a record high temp day,a record cold day,record snowfall,record rainfall,record high winds. The measure of climate change might just be the extremes that are occuring around the world. I've been watching this problem get worse and worse,ever since I asked my Dad"Where does all the smoke from the cars go?". He said "Up into the air ,and blown away". That was in the mid 1950's. I didn't believe him. I started to read and study,I found weather and climate very interesting. Now that I have a pretty good understanding of the science of weather,it'll take more than flimsy 'facts' to change my understanding.
"You can't put toothpaste back in the tube"

Answer 6

Heating oil gets more expensive every winter. Did NOAA predict that it would be so much warmer that no one would have to heat their homes?

Answer 7

i think this winter will be warmer than last year's because of the thing that is happening in our world which is the global warming.

as of now, almost all of the countries in the earth are contributing to worsen global warming.

even if we say that UK is trying to save the world from global warming, it will still have less than a percent in lessening the effect of global warming because the pollution that is coming from some countries can go as far as thousands of kilometers.

so if there's a movement calles SOS or Save our Seas,
they must make something like SWS, or Save The Winter Snow. ^_^

Answer 8

I spent two weeks in Kansas this month and we have had about 10 mornings that were below freezing. Last Friday the low was 12ºF and Last Saturday I got snowed on. We did have a couple of warm afternoons though, but overall I would say cooler.

Answer 9

almost each credible scientist have faith that worldwide Warming is as actual as your left and good hand. the actual controversy the place they variety is whether or no longer worldwide warming is synthetic or a organic occurace. After going over the two facets and reading the two arguments for the two facets with an open strategies, i desperate that the two are literally corect in my own opinion. worldwide Warming is a organic occurance yet we are dashing the warming via our carbon emissions. Its the comparable with faith too. people desire to have faith one thought. Athiest do no longer desire to settle for the belief of God and christians do no longer desire to settle for that there is not any God. Neither area needs to adventure the different man or woman's point of view. they desire to envision the bible or foundation of species and have faith each and each be conscious with out question. in the event that they lots as examine the different area's point of view, they're going to try their toughest to disprove any and each thing they arrive throughout the time of. they're going to seek for sources that tutor their element at the same time as ignoring the different facets argument via refering to it as "illogical" or "no longer very rational". Then they pump themselves up via refering to themselves as no longer following the heard whilst they're doing the comparable as hundreds of thousands. additionally they declare to be loose or serious thinkers whilst in reality, they're only yet another puppet of their supported schedule. we ought to envision the two facets of the argument. One man or woman would look at a merchandise and phone it a bowl however the different ought to even see a around coffee mug. Its all a count of perception.

Answer 10

Who knows what the weather will do?

But the climate is getting warmer, long term. This graph shows both facts nicely. Individual years jump around, but the long term trend is undeniable.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif

And the price of oil isn't going up because of the weather. It's because many more Chinese and East Indians are driving cars.

Answer 11

Wow, the price of heating oil is higher in the winter than it was in the summer?!

Astonishing! LOL!!