Will someone please try and convince me to abandon my faith in God?

Question

The question "How do simple organic molecules form a protocell?"
Relatively short RNA molecules could have spontaneously formed. That is a big “could have spontaneously formed”. About 10 to the 10th power? Higher or Lower. Someone convince me that the probability of this occurring is still in the realm of reality or has it moved into fairytale land.

When does probability step aside to reality?

Sweeny: According to who? You.

Why can't anyone convince me that your faith in astronomical probability requires less faith?

JM: You should write fairytale books. I do understand your point. But that is not reality.

Aviator: Right, I can't scientifically prove God created everything. That is why I have faith. When does probability become faith?

Answer 1

I know from experience I'm going to get ripped here, because I'm going to take a stab at actually answering your question by saying that 10^10 ain't a thing. I am not going to try to convince you to abandon your faith in God, though.

I had the same quandary ("it seems so unlikely; how can it have happened?!"), but then I learned about two things: thermodynamics and time.

So, thermodynamics. Chemically speaking, the bonding of atoms to one another is thermodynamically favored, meaning they "want" to bond. Un-bonding is far harder than bonding for "stable" molecules, like RNA and DNA, so once they start to form, they stay formed. That favorability means that the completely random model of molecules forming and falling apart is not a good one (scientifically, that means it's a sucky point of view). It's similar to saying "let's calculate the likelihood of a man NOT drifting off to space," but ignoring gravity. Formation of molecules is a fixed horse race.

Second thing: incomprehensible lengths of time. Many chemical reactions, like the ones involved in forming RNA and DNA, take factions of a second. Just pretend that one "try" at forming an amino acid takes a full second (a very long time in chemistry, so plenty of separate reactions can take place). Then estimate that the earth is about 4 billion years old (it is at least that old via isotope ratio measurements). That gives you 3600 seconds an hour, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, for 4E9 years. That's 1.3E17 seconds, which is kind of a lot. I mean, that's more than I can comprehend.

As it is, life appeared, say, three billion years ago. That means "succeess" after only 3.4E16 seconds, provided that there were no attempts at molecule formation in outer space before the earth formed.

The point here is that even if the likelihood of amino acids or DNA bases randomly forming is 1E-11, you have lots more time than you need for that to happen. The improbability is simply overwhelmed by vast amounts of time. Just imagine having a thousand years to play a single slot machine: you'd expect to win eventually, right? Now rig the slot machine, just a little: it's even more likely you'll win eventually. That doesn't require faith, just time.

Incidentally, this should only further justify your faith in God, since it means you don't actually "need" God to set things rolling. I think you have to have a lot of blind faith to think that God HAD to be there for life, the universe, and everything to start and progress as it has.

If you'd like to postulate a God who is outside the universe we know, or who set up the "rigged" rules and let 'er rip, or who is simply incredibly patient, then go ahead. I have no reasonable problem with that. Reason leaves plenty of room for God, and I don't think "science" cares, since it is only descriptive.

Answer 2

RNA could have evolved from simpler forms. It didn't need to spontaneously form.

And at least it is possible to scientifically look at this and form statistics, even if Creationists usually use the statistics wrong. What are the statistics that God created everything? You can't answer that because there is no science to start from.

And every time I've seen the "statistical impossibility" argument, whenever I scrutinize the math, they are always using statistics wrong. I would guess that your 10 to the 10th power is also derived from a misuse of probability.

Answer 3

Almost infinite number of atoms, almost infinite variations on local physical conditions, billions of years. 10 to the 10th power doesn't remotely get near the number of chemical reactions that could have taken place to create the building blocks of life. It's INEVITABLE that complex proteins should have formed! No fairytale here!
The process of evolution of life on earth is as close to reality as current scientific knowledge has been able to test and ascertain as probable fact. Why should solely rejection of "creationism" , as you appear to be asking, cause you to abandon faith in your god. As an atheist I know you're wrong anyway but this is just one in a long line of reasons to reject religion.

Answer 4

First, I don't care if you believe in God or not.

Second, to assess the probability an event will happen, you must know how many opportunities it has to happen.

Example: if the possibility of life forming on a planet with suitable conditions is one in one quadrillion per million years, it sounds like life won't be forming. But if there are a ten quadrillion suitable planets in the Universe, and each of them has suitable conditions for an average of a billion years, then not only does it seem likely life will form on one of them, it seems nearly certain it will form on many of them.

Answer 5

Look at the ratio of planets without possible spontaneously formed life forms to ones that do have them. It is well within the range of such a near impossible probability.

Answer 6

An omnipotent, omniscient, omnibenevolent being who exists outside of time and space and cares utterly what happens to a primate species on the third planet from a sun in the rather unfashionable end of the galaxy is profoundly less probable.

EDIT: Well, yeah, me, and anyone who doesn't have anything invested in religion. Why are you so quick to abandon logical analysis when it comes to God?

Answer 7

Why would you have trouble believing that life could exist without a creator, but happily accept that something infinitely more amazing (an intelligent entity capable of designing and creating an entire universe) *can* exist without a creator?

Answer 8

How would the answer to that particular question convince you to abandon your faith in God?

I suggest you try a different question: how did God come to exist in the first place?

Answer 9

To believe that would be an act of faith. The only important question would be faith in what?

Answer 10

There are a billion galaxies in the universe, each with a billion stars.
It is inevitable that life should occur some where in the universe.