Basic global warming facts - true or false?

Question

I'm trying to gauge people's knowledge of some basic facts relating to global warming. Please answer true or false, and feel free to elaborate as much or as little as you want.

1) Greenhouse gases trap heat and warm the Earth.

2) Humans emit greenhouse gases, some of which accumulate in the atmosphere.

3) Humans contribute to global warming.

4) Humans emit approximately 150 times more greenhouse gases than volcanoes.

5) Total solar output has changed little over the past 30 years.

6) The Earth is continuing to warm.

7) There is strong evidence that galactic cosmic rays may be responsible for much of the recent global warming.

8) Warming on Mars proves that humans are not responsible for warming on Earth.

9) Past climate changes prove that humans are not responsible for warming on Earth.

10) A faulty surface temperature record makes us think that the planet has warmed more than it has in reality.

Answer 1

1. We would all be dead if they did not. What you do not see is the real major greenhouse gas...water vapor. Water vapor makes up about 95% of the greenhouse effect, CO2 about 3.61%, Methane, Nitrous Oxide, etc a little over 1%

2. True.

3. Theoretically yes, but the amount is so minute as to be statistically irrelevant. Of all CO2 in the air, only about 3.2% is man made. The other 97% is natural. Studies indicate that we have contributed about .28% of all green house gas warming. This amount is so tiny as to be unable to be statistically measured (unless you think scientist can measure historic temps to a tenth of a degree by measuring tree ring growth patterns. LOL)

4. So what? Our total contribution to CO2 is only about 3.2%. The oceans contribute a vastly larger quantity. Which is probably why studies show that temperature leads CO2 increase. Higher temps allows the oceans to release more stored CO2.

5. False, solar output has increased in recent years. Actually, if you look at solar output, the period of least solar activity corresponds to the mini ice age. If you plot Solar output to temperature, the correlation is about 93%. Much better than CO2 to temp correlation. I think the increase was measured as .2% higher. Which is funny because AGW fanatics say this is irrelevant, yet our .28% contribution to greenhouse effect will kill us all.

6. True. The earth has been warming for the last 10,000 years. There was a period of cold, called the mini ice age around 1850 to 1860 (see sun output for correlation). The irony is that man started to keep detailed record at around the time of the mini ice age. Thus we should EXPECT temps to increase. If you measured a lakes water level at one of its recent lows, you should naturally expect it to rise higher in the future, just like the measured temps.

7. Not sure if it is strong evidence, but there are studies which have shown a direct correlation to cosmic rays, the suns output and cloud cover. The correlation is increased solar activity reduces cosmic rays which have been shown to produce clouds. The link with cloud cover is that it acts as a global coolant by reflecting suns (again with the sun) rays back into space. As study was done where a room with atmosphere like the high level atmosphere was subjected to cosmic rays, and clouds formed in the room. However, this science is to recent to make blanket statements.

8. Not neccesarily. At any given time we would expect some planets to be warming others to be cooling. The interesting thing is that 4 or five planets have been thought to be currently warming.

9. False. What skeptics are saying is that the climate has been warmer in the past and cooler than now. This is refuting the AGW fanatics claim that this is the warmest ever period. Also, it goes to show that the earth is not going to burn up as it has been several degrees warmer in the past and, well we are here to say the earth did not die. Also, proving that the climate has been warmer is used to disprove the AGW fanatics illogical use of positive feedback to create their outlandish claims of temperature increase. In nature almost all (I can only think of nuclear reaction) feedbacks are negative in nature.

10. Possible. Land based temperature reading stations have been over come by growth. This is commonly referred to as the "Urban Heat Island Effect". This reality is the result of thermometers being positioned on hot black top (try laying down on pavement in the hot sun), near a/c ventilators, near chimneys, etc. Studies have even shown that simply repainting the stations (they are painted white) can effect readings. The old stations used a different paint base (I forget what it was). When they repainted the station, an immediate increase in temperature was noted. This error can be seen by NASA's recalculating the warmest US temp to be 1934, not 1998 as thought (even though 1998 was an El Nino year, which has nothing to do with CO2 warming). This heating effect on temp reading corresponds to the reading received from satelite and balloon measurements. Global Warming Theory says that the higher (troposhpere, I think) should have warmed more than surface temps. But, this has not been the case. So either the theory is wrong, the satellites and balloons are wrong, or surface temps are wrong.

This is a summary. I did not review studies that I have read as that takes a long time. Maybe I should start indexing the articles for easy reference.

I do have a question for you, If we continually double the CO2 in the air (start at 0, then go to 100, the go to 200, etc), does the rate of change of the temp due to the greenhouse effect increase, decrease, or remain the same? Explain your answer.

And, if you say the rate decreases, then how do AGW fanatics promote temperature increase over 2 degrees? Again explain please.

Answer 2

1. Almost true - greenhouse gases slow the transfer of heat. They are not like a lid on a boiling pot that release no heat. There is a logarithmic effect. Each new CO2 molecule causes less warming than the last CO2 molecule.

2. True - but these gases also accumulate from natural causes.

3. True.

4. ?

5. True, but scientists do not yet understand solar amplication at the poles.

6. Depends on what you use as your reference period. According to the CRU, 1998 is still the warmest year on record. Yes, it was an El Nino year but so was 2006.

7. Not yet. There is strong evidence that galactic cosmic rays are involved in the formation of low level clouds that cool the Earth. There is still some debate about how this fact plays out in the climate. Hendrik Svensmark at the Danish National Space Center still has high hopes that his theory will gain the ascendancy.

8. False.

9. False. But past climate changes prove that the recent warming is not necessarily outside natural climate variability, which was the claim by alarmists.

10. Absolutely true. Some people confuse this with the Urban Heat Island effect, but poorly sited stations occur in rural locations as well as urban. Some of these weather stations are located on top of parking lots! The fact this causes artificial warming is self-evident to anyone who understands heat transfer. More importantly, McIntyre did a reconstruction using only good quality stations rated CRN1-2 and found a significant change in the US temp record.

Answer 3

1) True (it's a well-known fact by now)
2) True (I wish they'd stop harping on about it)
3) True (but very little)
4) Not sure about that one, but the ocean is the biggest contributor of CO2.
5) Completely false (The sun changes it's solar output ALL THE TIME)
6) True (by about one degree per century...OH NO!! It's going to destroy the earth! Yeah...right...)
7) True (Studies suggested a decrease in the cosmic radiation reaching Earth since the beginning of the twentieth century, causing [Heinrich] Svensmark to hypothesize that "most of the warming during the twentieth century can be explained by a reduction in low cloud cover.... Now after studying this for 10 years, I think it's completely certain that solar activity affects how much cosmic radiation reaches the Earth—it's changing the Earth's climate.")
8) Mostly true (it's a big pointer)
9) True (The earth's climate has ALWAYS changed, and this warming trend, compared to others in the past, is not remarkable or dramatic in any way. What could make us think this trend is different? It boggles my mind.)
10) True (There "global average temperature" is a fake number. To get a real global average temperature, each station where you take temperature measurements would have to be evenly spaced. The number of functional temperature stations in Siberia [it's cold there....REALLY cold] has fallen in the past several years, due to people failing to take proper care of them. That's not suspicious, is it? I mean, with less temperature stations in cold places, the average temperature would rise, wouldn't it?)

NOTE: Basically none of these questions are known for sure by anyone. We just don't know enough about the climate to judge what will happen in the future. (I put my opinions, which i have gained from rather extensive research of many different scientists' work.)

Answer 4

1) TRUE, and easily proveable using some simple science

2) TRUE, easily measured, also very basic science

3) TRUE, we can accurately measure the heat retaining properties of greenhouse gases, we know how much of each gas we produce, the rest is simple math

4) TRUE, in any given year the ratio varies - there may be less or more than average volcanic activity. Over time the figure of 150 is a realistic one.

5) TRUE, there have been nearly three sun-spot cycles within the last 30 years and during each cycle total solar output goes up for approx 5.5 years then down for approx 5.5 years. There are other, much longer solar cycles involved, the overall trend over the last 30 years is one of very little change

6) BASICALLY TRUE. At this moment in time natural variations are causing a very short and very slight cooling, the longer term natural trend is one of slight warming. These trends are overshadowed by the much greater human contribution which is causing warming.

7) FALSE. The role of galactic cosmic rays has been closely studied and eliminated as the cause of global warming. Whilst changes in cosmic ray intensity may cause changes in cloud cover, the contrinution to global warming (or cooling) by these changes is a very small one.

8) FALSE. Warming on Mars proves there is warming on Mars, anything beyond this is conjecture. Only by looking at the causes of the warming can anything be concluded. The causes are unique to Mars, unrelated to Earth and not (as some people claim) caused by increased solar activity.

9) TRUE / FALSE. Past climate changes before the arrival of humans on the planet was of course entirely natural. As with events on Mars, in itself it neither proves nor disproves anything and again we need to examine those natural changes and see how that compares to current events. What we find is that current warming is well and truly outside any natural possibility (even if every natural cycle were cranked up to the max). Studying the cycles provides and their wider implications provides the proof that humans are affecting the climate.

10) BASICALLY FALSE. If there was only one temperature record and that temperature record were based on absolute temperatures and there was no means of compensating for any errors and the errors were significant and went un-noticed then it would be feasible to claim the planet was warming (or cooling) quicker than it really was. There are several surface temperature records, the determination of warming or cooling is derived from anomalous values compared to a base mean (so it's irrelevant what the actual temperature readings are), irregular, unreliable or erroneous components of any temperature record are rejected. Because there are many records that can be compared, if one is found to be in disagreement with the others it can be examined, remedied, compensated for, rejected outright.

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AN OBSERVATION:

Looking through the answers it's interesting to see how the opinions of the skeptics continues to evolve. I know there's very few answers here from which to draw a conclusion but I think it's safe to say that had these questions been posed 12 months ago you would have got very different answers - particularly to the first three questions.

Certainly there would have been an outright denial that humans could possibly contribute to global warming and, as we know from past questions and answers, there would have been much disputing the possibility that greenhouse gases were capable of retaining heat or that we were adding to the amount in the atmosphere.

It's interesting to watch how the arguments and opinions are changing over time. I wonder what answers you'd get if you posted the questions again 12 months from now.

Answer 5

7 through 10 are bogus (misinformation to obscure the issue). I think solar output has increased some, but that is only a small portion of the cause of global warming (See the IPCC 4th Assessment from Working Group I - the summary list the natural and anthropogenic causes and gives the magnitude of the total contribution). I don't know about 4. The rest are correct.

Answer 6

Oh let me try to make a D in science like Algore

1 true
2 Strictly humans? All flora and fauna emit at some point.
3 How much do you want this time? I don't carry cash.
4 I believe volcanoes emit mostly sulpher dioxide or something and CO2 being the lesser although buffaloes die in Jellystone because of these gasses.
5 Still a lot of speculation in the study of solar science as to exactly what the sun is doing, or not. For sure there are open questions
6 Doubts due to satellite telemetry errors and "adjustments"
And the same for ground stations.
7 There is a theory being worked on by a scientist in some Nordic country still waiting on some collider test or something.
8 Doesn't prove or disprove.
9 It proves they have happened without our assistance
10 A possibility if you go to adjusting figures that should be ruled out as erroneous

Answer 7

1. True
2. True
3. True
4. Not sure but gonna say false.
5. False
6. True
7. Never heard anything about this.
8. False but with a caveat, the Earth is in a natural phase of global warming but man has increased the speed slightly.
9. False.
10. Possible. Record keeping was not that great 100 years ago and neither was the accuracy of the instruments.

But here is something to wrap your brain around...

Increased temps cause more evaporation, evap causes clouds which decrease temps and rain also decreases the temps. Increased rain causes more vegetation to grow. Green areas stay cooler than others so it would decrease temps. Plants thrive on CO2 and water so plant life should start booming.

So will it kill us or bring back rain forests to the world like in the age of Dinosaurs? It was MUCH hotter back then.

Answer 8

Items 1 to 6 true, items 7 to 10 false.

Answer 9

All I know is that the temperatures are rising in relation to greenhouse gas emission and all the natural fluctuations have been taken into consideration and do not account for the temperature increase. So either there is some completely unknown reason for it, or humans are causing the globe to warm unnaturally by excessive pollution emissions.

Answer 10

50 years ago, the worry was over GLOBAL COOLING.... the earth has cycles of warming and cooling.

Gollee have you forgotten the SUB ZERO temps in the northern states , what 30 years ago... maybe not that long.... no fear of warming then.

This planet will go on as LONG as God plans, we are to be caretakers of our planet, but we can do NOTHING to stop what ever is to come.