If I said Global Warming ended back in 1998, would you believe me?

Question

Many people in the world believe Global Warming is real. But what if it's not? What if Global Warming ended back in 1998?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2006/04/09/do0907.xml&sSheet=/news/2006/04/09/ixworld.html

You decide.

Answer 1

Yes - here's data from NASA to back your statement
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D.txt

Answer 2

Yes, 1998 was the hottest year until 2005, which perhaps dwarfed it. The year was intensely hot though simply because it happened to entail an extemely powerful El Nino, a natural event, that combined with the long term global warming trend to make 1998 a very hot year. It doesn't matter either way though... global warming isnt based on linear progress. Each successive year does NOT have to be hotter than the previous.

Global warming is still here, and the warming trend is intensifying, especially around the poles, due the the feedback loop. When ice melts, it exposes dark ground or water which absorbs heat instead of reflecting it like ice or snow, which thereby contributes to an increase in temperate.

People talk about how the planet has only warmed around one degree on average, but in fact places like the poles have warmed EIGHT DEGREES. That is a major climate shift.

Answer 3

No of course not ,to skeptics and deniers it is mass hysteria and figments of millions of peoples imagination .
so you got nothing to worry about
God rules America and will protect you
so it wont happen there .

However the price of beer may go up ,because of potable water shortage
and food prices may rise because the third world slave countries got lots of problems due to Global Warming.
on e degree rise in temperature means 10% crop loss-

In Chiapas ,and Tabasco in Mexico .more then a million people became homeless overnight with water coming up to their roofs ,because of rains from super evaporation from the forests,this had never happened before.
Millions of animals died and the crocodile ,who are abundant in that area were delighted.

In India 3000 people died because of super storms .
Right now the average death toll annually is 150.000 due to Global warming
a few years ago a whole bunch in France as well.

these figures are already out of date and are expected to double soon.

In Northern China millions of people are running for their lives because regular dust storms so far have buried 900 villages under the sand
and the whole of northern China is turning into a dessert.

The Sahara is growing by 7 kilometers a year all around the edges ,like a slow burning fire shriveling up their neighbors

In the Kalahari huge rivers have dried up and thousand of species are gone due to their habitats disappearing

So you see all is well you may have polar bears soon in America ,when the north pole is gone ,looking for a home ,as the bollweavel sings.
so that is the good news you can add another specie to your list ,instead of deleting hundreds that are disappearing

the biggest changes are invisible at micro biotic levels species are becoming extinct ,others are multiplying ,this affects the insect populations that follow ,and changes in that affect all that follows in the food chains ,All life is interrelated of both flora and fauna,

And we as being on the top of the food chain are always the last to know

when they killed all the mosquito's around the Danube for example all of the life in the woods disappeared ,they were a vital link in the food change.like the disappearing bees will drastically affect pollination ,some of that is part of our food production

So Global warming has its toll there are incidents all over the world ,

But dont worry not in America ,and look on the bright side ,this will save the globalists of your New world order on bombs

if you look you can always find something positive in disasters

Answer 4

I wouldn't believe you and I would hope that you would have the requisite intelligence to see through the fabrication that is the Telegraph article.

WARNING TO SKEPTICS: The following paragraphs contain facts, you may want to look away now.

The entire article is written around the premise that "official temperature records of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, [show] that for the years 1998-2005 global average temperature did not increase". This is a blatant lie.

Here's everything you need to see how distorted the media article is...

The official temperature record (the one supposedly used in the press report) - http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/monthly

Complete datasets (in Common Data Format)
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/data/download.html

Free download of CDF to enable you to run your own diagnostics on the datasets
http://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/netcdf/

CRU website (co maintainers of the dataset)
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/

Hadley Centre Website (co maintainers of the dataset)
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/index.html

Hadobs (Hadley Centre Observations) Website http://hadobs.metoffice.com/

Using the above links you can obtain the dataset for yourself together with many related datasets, using CDF you can diagnose them yourself (you can create your own Excel spreadhseets to diagnose the temp record if you don't want to install CDF).

If you don't want to do any of that then here's the graph. It covers the period 1st Jan 1850 to 20th Nov 2007, the red line is the 10 year mean, the blue line is the 5 year mean, the thin orange line is the annual temp. Temps are expressed as anomalies from the base period mean of 1960 to 1991. For practical purposes an absolute temperature of 14.0°C can be taken as being the base period mean.

http://profend.com/temporary/global-temp-record_3777_image003.gif

It's possible to manipulate the data in many ways, you can use raw data, make projections, apply trends, apply moving averages for any period you want, analyse subsets. In short, no matter what you do with the data you can't disguise the fact that the "global average temperature" has risen.

So there it is, the proof in front of you that the newspaer article is a lie (and I don't use the word lightly).

Answer 5

The funny thing about 1998 is it was warm because of El Nino, not CO2. This is a point which is not disputed. The strength of El Nino caused the warming in 1998. Yet, the AGW fanatics love to use it to say we are warming the globe. Get a life people.

Answer 6

No, I wouldn't, because it hasn't. There's a reason this article is in the Opinion section rather than the Science section.

1998 was an anomalously hot year due to El Nino. In fact, it was the hottest year on record, slightly above 2005. But that does not mean that global warming ended.

Here is a graph of the statistical trend in average global temperature from 1998-Present using 2 different temperature sets (GISTEMP in black, HadCRU in red):

http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2007/08/t1998.jpg

As you can see, it is quite clear that global warming has not stopped. The only way to argue otherwise is to hand-draw a line from 1998-Present, which is not a scientific test. It's simply manipulating the data in a deceptive manner. Bob Carter should be ashamed of himself.

Answer 7

The Telegraph.co.uk is well known for promoting pseudo science. The global temperature continues to rise.

Jello, take another look at that link. It says at the top "Contiguous 48 U.S. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly"
US temps, not global.

Answer 8

No.

1998 was an unusually warm year. That happens (it's called weather). But the long term trend (climate) is still headed up.

This graph shows that nicely. Notice how individual years jump around a lot, but the 5 year rolling average does not.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif

Situations like this actually happen a lot in science. This ridiculous argument by Bob Carter is one reason scientists don't take him seriously.

EDIT Jello quotes the US data. Hey guy, it's GLOBAL warming.

Answer 9

The Chances of that happening are slim to none. The reason why not is because of the weather we have. Think about it if it had ended then the heat stroks wouldnt be so high up and the temperatures wouldnt be either.

Answer 10

I wouldn't. It's far too easy for me to go and take a peep at the data myself and see how egregiously wrong Dr. Carter's claim is.