Global warming and hurricanes?

Question

The local news networks were all predicting one of the worst hurricanes seasons in many years. Upward 15 to 20 major events.
Naturally, like everything else that goes wrong they indicated the reason being global warming. Don't get me wrong there is a warming in some areas but not all and it does not explain every catasthrophic event that happens as Al Gore would have us believe.
The question is-was this one of the more mild hurricane seasons?It sure seems to be the case.

Not many deny the global warming, the caveat is the reasons why. Many, many renowned scientist believe it's a natural cycle. Also, the U.S. is not the worst polluter as some would claim.
Also, global warming is not the reason for every calamity that takes place as some are projecting.

Answer 1

The link between global warming and hurricanes is a legitimate controversy between large groups of scientists on either side. Here's a good book about it which takes no sides.

"Storm World: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle Over Global Warming" by Chris Mooney

The reality of mostly man made global warming is not. There are a few skeptics, but there also are a few skeptics about evolution. The skeptics have theories, but the global warming scientists have overwhelming data. This is science - the data wins.

Because of the data, the vast majority of the scientific community and EVERY major scientific organization agree that global warming is real, and mostly caused by us. Proof here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686

"The fact that the community overwhelmingly supports the consensus is evidenced by picking up any copy of Journal of Climate or similar, any scientific program at the meetings, or simply going to talk to scientists. I challenge you, if you think there is some un-reported division, show me the hundreds of abstracts that support your view - you won't be able to. You can argue whether the consensus is correct, or what it really implies, but you can't credibly argue it doesn't exist."

NASA's Gavin Schmidt

Good websites for data and more info:

http://profend.com/global-warming/
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn11462
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/
http://www.realclimate.org
"climate science from climate scientists"

Answer 2

Global warming isn't about one off events, what happens in one country or what happens in a short space of time such as a season or a year - it's about long term trends. Climatologists and the like don't make predictions about what will happen in any given year, they use a baseline extending for 30 years or more (1960 to 1990 is the common default) and make comparisions for the coming decades and centuries. We know that the number and intensity of hurricanes is increasing, that's something that no-one can deny. This is a trend over many years and within any trend there are peaks and troughs - that's normal. No reputable climatologist stated that the 2005 hurricane season was caused by global warming, similarly no reputable skeptic claims that 2006 disproves global warming. Those with an understanding of the subject don't focus on single years, to do so is to deliberately distort the evidence by being selective. The media may focus on a single year as it can substantiate their argument whichever side of the debate they are on. But then the media aren't scientists and convey the message that gets across their viewpoint and is most likely to attract readers / viewers. No-one can say just how much effect global warming is having on hurricanes and other storms. The numbers and intensities of such events are increasing and have been for as far back as records go. Global warming has a part to play, it would be foolish to claim otherwise as that would fly in the face of what we already know about the formation and behaviour of hurricanes. Just how big a role global warming plays will become more apparent in time as further studies are conducted.

Answer 3

This years hurricane season is actually a decent one if you go by named storms. There have been 5 hurricanes and 10 tropical storms. You are correct that you cannot blame hurricane activity on Global Warming. There is not enough proof and the scientist are split. You can't blame localized events on Global Warming, like the fires in California this year. A kid started the fire and it spread rapidly probably due to poor forest management and burning of forest is good for the forest.

The reason people like to connect Global Warming and hurricanes is b/c warmer waters means more fuel for hurricanes. You see it every year when a Hurricane forms off the east coast of Africa and makes it's way to the Gulf of Mexico you see the hurricane double in size if not more. It's b/c the waters are warmer in the Gulf of Mexico than the Atlantic due to less circulation. So no matter how warm the water is in the Atlantic you bet your bottom dollar that the hurricane will double in size once it makes it's way into the warmer waters of the Gulf. Now is this a contributor of Global warming I would think not. Basically the pro AGW members feel the 2005 season is related to Global Warming. Well it might be the case but there are other factors at play. The El Nino and La Nina weather patterns are huge when it comes to Hurricane development and tracks. In an El Nino we will see less hurricanes due to the upper level wind shear that travels across the lower USA and into the Atlantic which rips these storms up or turns them to the North. In 2005 we were in a La Nina which does not create the upper level wind shear to tear up hurricanes or drive them to the north. Every storm that hit the USA started out small until they hit the Gulf of Mexico then doubled in size. So if Global Warming is the cause then the storms would be massive regardless of where they were located. Also people use Katrina as leverage. Well what happens when a hurricane hits a city that is already below sea level.. Well you saw what happened. It's inevitable. Another thing. In 1934 which is now that hottest year the USA has ever seen that has been recored there were 11 storms, 6 hurricanes and 5 tropical storms. You can see similar hurricane activity for the past century that we see now!! There is no way to link Global Warming and Hurricane Intensity.

Though the hurricane amount and intensity may have picked up in the atlantic but the hurricane amount and intensity have weakened in the pacific, so if global warming is to blame then we would see the amount and intensity of hurricanes increase in the pacific as well..

Answer 4

The reason why hurricanes did not take place is because most expert do not agree that an increase in temperatures will cause increase in hurricanes. The IPCC (the bible of the alarmists) purposely misrepresented the facts as indicated by the letter of resignation of Chris Landsea to the IPCC:

"I found it a bit perplexing that the participants in the Harvard press conference had come to the conclusion that global warming was impacting hurricane activity today. To my knowledge, none of the participants in that press conference had performed any research on hurricane variability, nor were they reporting on any new work in the field. All previous and current research in the area of hurricane variability has shown no reliable, long-term trend up in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones, either in the Atlantic or any other basin."

"It is beyond me why my colleagues would utilize the media to push an unsupported agenda that recent hurricane activity has been due to global warming. Given Dr. Trenberth’s role as the IPCC’s Lead Author responsible for preparing the text on hurricanes, his public statements so far outside of current scientific understanding led me to concern that it would be very difficult for the IPCC process to proceed objectively with regards to the assessment on hurricane activity."

"It is certainly true that "individual scientists can do what they wish in their own rights", as one of the folks in the IPCC leadership suggested. Differing conclusions and robust debates are certainly crucial to progress in climate science. However, this case is not an honest scientific discussion conducted at a meeting of climate researchers. Instead, a scientist with an important role in the IPCC represented himself as a Lead Author for the IPCC has used that position to promulgate to the media and general public his own opinion that the busy 2004 hurricane season was caused by global warming, which is in direct opposition to research written in the field and is counter to conclusions in the TAR."

You can read his full letter here:
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/science_policy_general/000318chris_landsea_leaves.html

Answer 5

Hurricane & Tornados are not effected by globle warming but thunderstorms and flash floods will more likey to bring you the worst. A hurricane gets it's source from warm waters in atlantic and the more hotter it gets the stronger the hurricane will be and their might be one stronger then 2005 hurricanes but thunderstorms will bring rain and flood some parts of the world.

Answer 6

This year is more active than average--though not as bad as 2005. There have been 14 named storms (so far) in the Atlantic.

Last year was also slightly more active--but most of the activity was in the pacific. That--as the news from Bangladesh today shows--is also severe.

Also--this is one thing that clearly is related to global warming. It is NOT certain that any storms are being caused by global warming--but it is making some of them worse. That is pretty well established. The reason is also known:

Here's why--hurricanes are basically heat engines--they draw heat energy from the oceans and that energy is what powers the hurricane (which is why you don't see them in the winter). Now--global warming hs raised ocean temperatures, particularly in areas like the Gulf of Mexico. That means that if a storm moves into that area, it suddenly has more energy available and so becomes much stronger.

BTW--you need to rethink your attitude about Al Gore. He is not inventing any of what he says--all he does is present what scientists have found in layman's ters so the rest of us can understand what the scientists are saying. In short, public education. He has NOT--contrary to the lies of the so-called"skeptics" made any claims on his own.

Answer 7

Global warming is like a burp.

It's happened in the past and probably will happen again in the future.

Al Gore is just feeding on this.

Answer 8

If you look at the additional material on Al Gore's DVD, he gives a complete retraction of his claim that global warming will cause more hurricanes, but he added that hurracanes will get worse.

It's easy to demonstrate that hurricanes aren't increasing in a stastically significant way, but it's harder for people to prove that hurricanes aren't getting worse, so he's probably safe making that claim.

Answer 9

Yes, everything is blamed on global warming. It takes away from the credibility of the argument.

"Global Warming" had a name, that name is Katrina we were told after a cat3 hurricane over swept poorly made barriers. We were told to expect more and more hurricanes like this over the next years because of man made global warming.

Since they never happened, global warming was to blame as well.

Global warming is used only to explain past events. No one can use global warming to predict future events. So they prepare us by telling us that even if it gets cold, that's because of global warming.

Answer 10

See this.