In what manner will Bush's coming recession effect the national crime rate?

Question

A Priori (below) I agree. They never cease to seek out the imaginary silver lining within Bush's cloud of dispair.

Fred Head (below) As long as taxes stay low???

I guess worthless currency has no effect on the economy.

Fred Head (below) As long as taxes stay low???

I guess worthless currency has no effect on the economy.

Answer 1

I seem to recall a guy who said he was always looking for solutions. I don't see one here.

But assuming there is a recession coming, at what point do people commit crimes? Do you know? I'm unaware of any scientific consensus that anything other than a criminal mind commits crime.

In the law there is a distinction that maybe people are unaware of, for "crimes of necessity." A beggar stealing bread, for example. It is a mitigation to a theft crime that would not really raise the national eyebrows anyway.

Violent crimes raise our national attention. Rape. Murder. Robbery. Those crimes require malice. An evil heart.

Answer 2

While the business cycle marches on with little regard to who's sitting in the oval office, it's effect on crime rates is not always as predictable as you might think.

Common sense would tell us that propperty crimes and violent crimes like muggings, carjackings, extortion and the like would logically increase as more people became desperate enough for money to do such things.

Historical data, however, does not always bear that assumption out. It may be because of 'safety net' programs, or because people who have long been socialized to be relatively honest do not quickly fall into a life of crime, but crime rates have generally fallen over the last 20 years, in spite of the usual boom-and-bust cycle continuing in the same way it has for the last 70 (that is, somewhat muted by Keynesian Governement Policy).

Interestingly, while crime rates do not correllate as strongly as we might expect to economic conditions, they do correllate startlingly to a specific social change that took place in 1974 - Roe v Wade. About 15 years later, crime rates started to decrease.


While, technically, fiat currencies are not 'backed' by anything, they are not actually 'worthless' they are worth what they will buy in the market. The dollar has been subject to inflationary monetary policy ever since the New Deal, so it's value deteriorates continuously. Sometimes faster than others - the worst, of course, being the double-digit inflation of the Carter years. Durring Greenspan's long tenure in the Federal Reserve, we enjoyed relatively stable inflation. It still added up, but it was something we could all live with. Today, inflation is still nominally stable, so the dollar is not losing purchasing power any faster than it has in the past.

However, energy prices are excluded from the usual measures of inflation, so once you factor those in, the dollar has lost some purchasing power since 9/11, due to instability in the middle east slowing the increase in supply and fueling speculation and panic buying - and also due to increasing demand from developing nations.

The other thing that's happening is that the dollar is falling relative to some other fiat currencies. The reasons for that are more complex, and do include increased government borrowing and low interest rates.

Though it's not all bad. Modestly higher inflation combined with lower interest rates /is/ beneficial to consumers who are carrying debt - and most American consumer are.

Answer 3

This reminds me some news items from a few weeks ago...
Blackwater was awarded a five-year, $15 billion contract because "The U.S. government reportedly wants to use contractors to help its allies thwart drug trafficking and provide equipment, training and people."
http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=07/10/16/1344213

A week later, $1.4 billion, a ten-fold increase, was given to Mexico to fight the "war on drugs", on top of the additional 196 billion for the wars in Iraq and Iran. But at the same time, when winter heating costs are expected to rise 40%.... the Bush administration is CUTTING funding to the Home Heating programs that assist low-income families.
http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=07/10/23/1411247

So to answer your question... at least those pesky poor people won't be turning to a life of crime, specifically drug selling, to keep their families from freezing this winter.

Answer 4

Well, you sure are pessimistic. We are hardly in a recession, although things go up and down. As long as taxes stay low the economy should be good.

Answer 5

The crime rate will thrive, as it is now, but it will change from 99.9% hypocrasy and white collar crime to 99.8% hypocrasy and white collar crime. The remaining .1% will be overpublicized in the media, more laws will be written, and then we'll repeat.

Answer 6

If there is a recession it won't be bushs. It will be next presidents. Did we not hear that the fake recession of 1992 was instantly healed by bubba?

Answer 7

it;s going to go through the roof.this president has done so much harm to this country that i doubt we;ll ever recover.i think we should take his retirement away from him.since he likes this war so much take his retirement and benefits away from him and put the money toward his war.want to bet he;d raise a big stink about that.does;nt want anything taken away from him but it;s ok to take someones sons or daughter away from them and get them killed in a war that serves no purpose.people losing their jobs at a alarming rate.why should he have his cake and eat it to.when so many others have to suffer because of his stupid mistakes.we should take something away from him.it;s the american way right.with everyone losing their jobs people will start selling drugs just to pay their bills.bush;s recession is going to screw up the whole world.the national crime rate is going to go off the charts.and we have the great wizard in the white house that;s just to stupid to make a good decision by ending this damn war in iraq.

Answer 8

It won't.
People who commit crimes don't care about the Economy.
The Democrats have been trying to cause a recession for several years, but so far Bush has been able to stop them.

("Liability of the Left", has a great answer.)

Answer 9

Since Libs have convinced most Americans that it's stupid to obey laws (since they don't believe in moral absolutes), then I guess the crime rate will go up as the great unwashed feels the economic pinch and decides to just take what they want!

Answer 10

Crime rate will more than likely rise.

Having said that, it also means there will be less money for criminals to steal.