How was the Weather predicted before 1969?

Question

Before 1969 we did not have satalites in space so how did weathermen know what the weather would be like the following week?

Answer 1

The first successful weather satellite was TIROS-1 that was launched in April of 1960.

The typical weather forecast in 1969 was not for a week but for 2 days in advance. The extended forecast, which was nothing more than a trend forecast was valid for the period 3 to 5 days in advance. A temperature and precipitation trend forecast (of either; below, near, or above normal) was prepared for the period 6 to 10 days in advance.

Forecasting was more from experience rather than from skill or education. Most forecasters analyzed hand drawn charts and based their forecast more from experience on upstream weather conditions and knowing how systems formed and moved and trying to time and project the dynamics of weather into the future just using rules of thumb forecasting techniques. Often, it was nothing more than a best guess.

Even though the fundamental knowledge of mathematical weather forecasting was proven in the 1920's, it was not until the speed of the computers increased so that they provided forecasts within the time needed to complete the mathematical models in a timely fashion that made it a realistic forecast process in the early 1970s. Then forecasts started to show some accuracy beyond that first or second day.

The more detailed 5 day forecasts were not prepared until the early 1980s when mathematical models started showing skill in that 3-5 day range.

The seven day (and longer period) detailed forecasts were not started until the middle 1990s. Even then, that was not driven by the so much by the skill shown by the forecasts but by demand that they be made. The media started providing the sixth and seventh day forecasts even though they were proven to be very inaccurate.

Even now, most forecasters would agree that the 6 and 7 days are often not more than an guess based on the mathematical models. But the day six forecast currently shows similar skill as those of the day 2 forecast of the 1960s.

High resolution models now go out 10 days and are steadily showing increasing skill. Yes, it is a slow increase, more research is needed as well as even faster computers

Totally accurate forecasts will likely never will happen in your life time, but compared to 50 years ago, forecasts have improved rather dramatically.

Answer 2

Meteorologists observe the weather conditions all over the world. And this they did before 1969 too.
They write down the observations on weather maps.
With these weather maps or surface weather analysis they can see where the lows and highs are situated. When looking at the weather charts of consecutive days, they can see where the lows are moving. And when they know where the lows were moving, they know where they will move. This was the forecast method before the computers were developed. After then the analysis and observation values were used as input for the computers that forecasted the weather fore the following week. (Numerical weather prediction)
This is done now too.
The satellites are used for additional observation data and not for forecasting the weather. But the satellites may improve the weather forecast.

Answer 3

I think Water gives a pretty nice answer to this so I'm not going to try to improve on it. However, I would like to respond to Curmudgeon and Eileen J. for their disparaging remarks about weather forecasting.

Weather forecasting has greatly improved, and particularly since about 1990. If you haven't noticed that then you haven't looked at the history or been paying attention. I have been looking at forecasts since the late 1970's and believe me the forecasts are MUCH better these days. Sure, sometimes they get it wrong, but more often than not they get it right. If you want perfection, you will not find it weather forecasting, that is simply an impossible task that no amount of computing power will ever overcome. Still, for short-term forecasting (three days or less) forecasts have gotten very good, and they're pretty decent out to a week now. There are inherent limitations on predictability that will keep us from ever having an accurate forecast for say one month in advance.

Answer 4

Hang log chain on post. If log chain is moving its windy, possible storm brewing be ready to take cover. If log chain is gone, tornado, its too late.

Answer 5

ALL THE TV STATIONS HAD A VICE PRESIDENT IN CHARGE OF LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW AND HE GAVE THE WEATHERMAN UPDATES JUST BEFORE HE WENT ON THE AIR.

Answer 6

i think they looked at the west and saw what was coming our way.....I do not know,,,but they were as correct probably as they are now....and that is NOT very often!

Answer 7

i believe the farmers almanac

Answer 8

just as inaccurately as it is now.