Since 1998 was the warmest year in the last 100, is global warming over?

Question

Since 1998 was the warmest year on record, are temperatures now starting to cool down?

With 10 years of increasing emissions of green house gasses, why aren't the years in the 21 century even warmer than the 1990's?

Will the years ahead be warmer or colder? Please show your work to how you came to your answer.

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"2007 is looking as though it will be the second warmest behind 1998," said Phil Jones, head of the Climatic Research Unit at Britain's University of East Anglia, which provides data to the U.N.'s International Meteorological Organization.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/globalwarming/2007-06-29-warm-year_N.htm

Answer 1

It doesn't matter to the doom and gloom believers. For them there's always disaster just around the corner. There will never be a solution to global warming, even if we all move back into caves.

We must never forget the thoughts of Henry Mencken when he said: "The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."

Sounds like he was talking about "Global Warming", doesn't it?

Answer 2

Actually if you compare the average temperature 1995-1999 (note that I've included the unusually warm year of 1998), with the average from 2000-2004 there 's a definite increase now. Or compare 1996-2000 with 2001-2006. Etc. See the graph below.

Individual years can be strange. That's called weather. But the long term trend is undeniable. This graph shows it clearly:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif

So I can't say what the next year will do. I can say the 5 year average temperatures will continue to increase. Not even the most "skeptical" climatologist would bet against that.

Answer 3

The U.N. climate panel, drawing on the work of 2,500 scientists, said this year that it was "very likely" that human activities led by use of fossil fuels were the main cause of a warming in the past half-century.

It gave a "best estimate" that temperatures will rise between 3.2°F and 7.8 °F this century.

Expected to continue based on satellite temperature models, the Carbon Dioxide levels, and the tilt of the Earth on its axis.


One predicted effect of an increase in solar activity would be a warming of the stratosphere; however, the observed effect since at least 1960 has been a cooling of the lower stratosphere, which is one of the predicted results of greenhouse gas warming.[33] Reduction of stratospheric ozone also has a cooling influence, although substantial ozone depletion did not occur until the late 1970s. Solar variation combined with changes in volcanic activity probably did have a warming effect from pre-industrial times to 1950, but a cooling effect since.[1] In 2006, Peter Foukal and other researchers from the United States, Germany, and Switzerland found no net increase of solar brightness over the last thousand years. Solar cycles lead to a small increase of 0.07% in brightness over the last 30 years. This effect is far too small to contribute significantly to global warming.[34][35] A paper by Mike Lockwood and Claus Fröhlich found no relation between global warming and solar radiation since 1985, whether through variations in solar output or variations in cosmic rays.[36] Henrik Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen, the main proponents of cloud seeding by galactic cosmic rays, disputed the findings of Lockwood and Fröhlich.[37]

Answer 4

/With 10 years of increasing emissions of green house gasses, why aren't the years in the 21 century even warmer than the 1990's?

It is warmer, where have you been? Uranus?

Answer 5

Oh for pete's sake.
Just because it's not in your backyard doesn't mean climate change "stopped".
Climate change is a LONG TERM and GLOBAL event. It is not the difference in temperature over ten years.
Get out of denial and face the facts.
Our ridiculous levels of consumption and pollution (not to mention ignorance) are not good for the environment, let alone ourselves.
Temperatures fluctuate, climate change theories have never suggested that we're going to see a 5 degree warming each year. Honestly...

Answer 6

To sjriley1, so how do we measure global warming again?

Dude, tough question. You probably won't get a lot of responses from the "round earthers" on this one. All of us "flat earthers" are really getting the shots in lately. We are so stupid that even smart people are beginning to parrot what we've been saying for 10 years.


I guess you had to live through the "man made global ice age " of the 70's to recognize this new pig in a global warming suit.

Whatever, I just don't want to see Carter in a thong telling us to turn off our A.C.'s again ;)

Answer 7

It dont really look that far off from the 11 year solar cycle or long term solar variation.

Answer 8

AND ????

One point does not invalid a trend:

http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/temperature/1880-2005.gif