Global warming in the UK?

Question

What's going to happen? I've read that the UK could get colder as the Earth gets warmer, true? Can someone explain why?

Also, this summer's flooding in the UK- direct consequence of global warming, or just shoddy government building extensively on floodplains?

Lastly, how much of the UK will be underwater due to global warming? Will it happen, or is it just science-fiction??

Answer 1

First a short answer then a long answer.

Could the UK get colder? Yes it could but it's not likely to.

Is global warming responsible for the flooding? It's safe to say that it made the floods worse.

How much of the UK would be underwater? In the short-term - very little, in the long term - quite a lot.

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● QUESTION

What's going to happen? I've read that the UK could get colder as the Earth gets warmer, true? Can someone explain why?

● ANSWER

It's a bit complicated to explain, I hope this make's sense.

Collectively the ocean currents that move throughout the world's oceans are known as the Thermohaline Circulation, they are driven by differences in the density and salinity of the
water. These currents distribute warm and cool water around the planet but in themselves do not directly cause either warming or cooling, they simply distribute water.

One branch of the thermohaline circulation is the North Atlantic Conveyor or Gulf Stream. This is an ocean current that conveys warm waters from the Caribbean to the shores of northern Europe and is responsible for keeping sea temperatures around the UK coast much warmer than they would be otherwise (hard to imagine if you've ever gone swimming off Brighton beach that the waters could be colder, but they could).

The primary factor that governs weather in the UK is the Atlantic Ocean. The prevailing weather moves in from the southwest, in crossing the ocean it picks up warm, moist air and it's this warm air that is responsible for the UK's comparatively mild climate given it's northerly latitude. Consider for example that London and Moscow are at similar latitudes yet in London it has hardly snowed at all for several years but in Moscow there are bitterly cold winters each year - this is more the sort of climate we would expect if it weren't for the Gulf Stream.

One line of thinking - and that's all it is, just a line of thinking - is that as the Arctic and Greenland ice melts it will introduce colder, fresh water into the North Atlantic and this could disrupt the Gulf Stream. Now, there's something of a contradiction here which would take too long to explain but the gist of it is that a) the Gulf Stream should flow deeper in the ocean but also that b) the Gulf Stream should flow higher in the ocean. It's possible that the two opposing forces could cancel each other out and have no effect on the Gulf Stream.

There are five possible things that could happen to the Gulf Stream...

a) Divergence - leading to warming, cooling or no change
b) Truncation - leading to some cooling
c) Cessation - leading to cooling
d) Diversion - leading to warming, cooling or no change
e) Nothing - no change

Of late there's been nearly a trillion tons of cold, freshwater flowing into the North Atlantic each year, this is as a result of melting from Greenland and the Arctic. There's been no noticeable change to the Gulf Stream and for 40 years now it's been pretty consistent. This is probably because, whilst a trillion tons sounds like a lot, it's not much when compared to the volume of water being moved by the Gulf Stream - a staggering 30 million tons per second. If we put it into some sort of context, it's the equivalent of a 40 ton lorry (the Gulf Stream) running into a small person (the meltwater)

The worst case scenario for the UK, and it's an unlikely one, is that the Gulf Stream is affected in such as way (see options above) that it no longer conveys the warm waters that moderates the UK's climate. If this were to happen temperatures would fall by 7°C and this would return the UK to the sort of position it was in 18,000 years ago when most of it was covered by glaciers - see this map http://www.arch-ant.bham.ac.uk/shottonproject/images/extent%20of%20ice.jpg

The glacial advance would be a slow process, the first glaciers would appear in the Cairngorm mountains of Scotland then spread throughout the Highlands before eventually moving south through Scotland and into England, Northern Ireland, Ireland and Wales. This process would take several thousand years.

● QUESTION

Also, this summer's flooding in the UK- direct consequence of global warming, or just shoddy government building extensively on floodplains?

● ANSWER

Building on floodplains makes the flooding worse but of course, rain is needed in the first place for there to be any flooding and the summer rains in the UK were record breaking with nearly three times (281%) of the long-term average rainfall.

Even if the land was untouched by human hands there would have been extensive flooding but river 'improvements', bad agricultural practices, inadequate drainage and sewerage systems, concreting over of large areas of land, removal of trees and bushes and many other factors all combined to create the worst flooding for hundreds of years.

The flooding has been examined in great detail and one thing that is done is to assign something called the Recurrence Interval or Return Period (it's the number of years on record plus 1 divided by the ranking of the flood ordered by the flow of water in cubic metres per second). In simple terms, if it has a value of say 50 it means that such a flood should occur once every 50 years.

The first floods had a Return Period value of 400, the second floods had a value of 1000. The chances of such flooding occurring within a couple of weeks of each other is millions to one against. When we look at all the floods that have occurred since 2000 (Carlisle, London, Boscastle, Lewes, York, Glasgow, Sheffield, Gloucester etc) the chance of these events being purely natural is an amazing 13 billion to one against.

With such extreme odds it's a safe bet that global warming had a part to play. And indeed, the events in the UK fit an emerging worldwide pattern of increased flooding which shows a direct correlation to increasing global temperatures.

So why should there be more flooding? As the world warms up more and more water is being evaporated from the seas and oceans and consequently this falls as rain (or snow in cold places). Not surprisingly then there has been a global increase in the amount of rain (and snow) falling, but it's not an even distribution. Some places have received considerably more rainfall than others, whilst at the same time other places have received less rainfall (the reasons are complex but again, the oceans have an important role to play).


● QUESTION

Lastly, how much of the UK will be underwater due to global warming? Will it happen, or is it just science-fiction??

● ANSWER

The answer very much depends on the sort of time scale you're talking about. Sea levels are slowly rising but the rate at which they're rising is increasing.

For thousand of years there's been very little change in sea levels, 100 years ago they were rising by 1mm a year, today they're rising by 3.1mm a year, in 50 years they're expected to be rising by 6mm a year and in 100 years it's likely they'll be rising by 12mm a year. Throughout the course of this century we expect to see average sea levels around the world rise by about 750mm.

The UK has a very complex, and in some places very fragile, geography. Many of the cliffs on the east coast are being rapidly eroded by the sea and in some places they're retreating inland by 20 metres a year. Over the last few hundred years several villages have been completely lost to the sea and the coastline has moved by several kilometres.

The damage that is caused to these fragile coastlines is disproportionate to sea level rises - a small rise can cause a lot of damage, not because of flooding but because of erosion.

Another problem is one of storm surges. These occur when conditions combine to cause a much higher tide than normal (a combination of normal high tides combining with an area of low pressure and driving winds). Again, the increase in height of the storm surge is disproportionate to the increase in height of sea levels and again, it's the East coast that is most at risk due to the 'funnelling' effect of the North Sea.

The last major storm surge in 1953 killed hundreds of people along the east coast from Norfolk down to Kent and is one reason the Thames Barrier was constructed. If a storm surge of the magnitude of the 1953 event were to make it's way up the Thames it would flood much of central London and could claim many thousands of lives. Since 1953 sea levels have risen and there is now a threat form even more damaging storm surges. For this reason the UK government are considering replacing the Thames Barrier with a bigger barrier even though the current one is nowhere near the end of it's projected life.

If global warming is allowed to continue unchecked until the point where there is no more ice left on the planet then sea levels will rise by just over 80 metres. Such an event couldn't happen for many thousands of years and the reality is that sea levels will rise by a matter of a few mm a year.

However, fast-forwarding to the distant future when all the ice is melted. The coastline of the UK would be very different. Much of the east and southeast of England would be below water, people living on the high ground along the London / Kent border would be able to look out from their island to the new offshore islands that were once the South Downs. Ocean liners would be able to dock in what remained of Birmingham, Sheffield and Leeds. The Scots would have gained independence from the rest of the UK as everything north of Glasgow would become an island of it's own (they'd have lost southern Scotland as this would still be attached to northern England).

Answer 2

Well the UK sits on top of a very important global oceanic current the brings warm water up from the equator up north to heat Europe. But the ice caps are melting and causing the current to slow down. It slows down due to the freshwater from the ice caps melting into the ocean, causing it to be less salty. So then the current gets messed up because the upwelling of the cold oceanic water gets slowed down and eventually the ocean current will stop completely and the UK and the Americas will go into an ice age in around 10 years.

And i am not an expert, i am just so into Environmental science and that's what i have read or learned in my Environmental science class.

Answer 3

Here is truth about global warming:

Global warming is one-half of the climatic cycle of warming and cooling.
The earth's mean temperature cycles around the freezing point of water.
This is a completely natural phenomenon which has been going on since there has been water on this planet. It is driven by the sun.
Our planet is currently emerging from a 'mini ice age', so is
becoming warmer and may return to the point at which Greenland is again usable as farmland (as it has been in recorded history).
As the polar ice caps decrease, the amount of fresh water mixing with oceanic water will slow and perhaps stop the thermohaline cycle (the oceanic heat 'conveyor' which, among other things, keeps the U.S. east coast warm).
When this cycle slows/stops, the planet will cool again and begin to enter another ice age.

It's been happening for millions of years.

The worrisome and brutal predictions of drastic climate effects are based on computer models, NOT CLIMATE HISTORY.
As you probably know, computer models are not the most reliable of sources, especially when used to 'predict' chaotic systems such as weather.

Global warming/cooling, AKA 'climate change':
Humans did not cause it.
Humans cannot stop it.

Answer 4

The possibility of the UK cooling 11 deg. is if the gulf stream changes course. The gulf stream is a current in the Atlantic caused by the cold arctic. no arctic ice, no Gulf stream. the good news for us is that this possibility is 100 years off.

This summers floods were not a direct consequence of GW. They were worsened by climate hange as the higher temperatures causes a more humid atmosphere, so when it rains it rains more heavily. It was still a normal, once in 50? year flood though.

On building on flood plains, I'm not sure if new build was involved. I think most of the building on flood plains is going on in the SE, which is predicted to get a drier climate in the future, so we'll suffer water shortages rather than floods.

It is not science fiction. I saw some maps FoE produced showing predicted maps of the UK. The timings of rises of sea levels are as yet unknown, there is plenty of computer modeling going on to figure it out. Trevor of Dana may give information on that. You'd then have to sit down with you ordanance survey maps, unless someone's done it already. More applicable is the incresed risk of flooding from storms, as in Katrina.

Answer 5

ok first, i don't get why we would be the only country to get colder as the entire earth get hotter. Doesn't sound likely to me.

Next, I think its because the goverment built houses on floodplians, bad move.

Lastly, there is no exact figure of how much of the earth will be underwater, i'm hoping none. By the way its not science fiction.

Its the ozone liar that protects us from the heat of the sun. We are slowly destroying that with car fumes, littering, etc...If the ozone lair is destroyed then the poles would heat up to the same heat as the sun and melt, thus causing to much water and flood countries around it. Its most likely we would be effected by this as we are close to the north pole. =] Hope that helps and remember...RECYCLE!!!

Answer 6

Experts believe that global warming will increase the melting of the polar ice, thus putting large amounts of fresh water into the oceans. This will decrease the salinity which in turn will turn off the Atlantic Conveyor (The gulf stream that gives us our relatively mild maritime climate).

Our climate will then come to resemble that of Southern Canada and central Russia, even with the effects of a global increase in temperatures.

Answer 7

At some stage, there will be a return of the ice age.....that is completely inevitable.

The earth will also be hit by a massive meteorite that will cause colossal devastation (if you don't believe me, look at the moon - what do you think made all those marks?)

The only issue is when, and which event will come first. Either way, life as we know it will die out and be replaced in millions of years to come by new forms of life .

Until then, my plan is to enjoy this life fully and hope that it won't happen any time soon.

Answer 8

it just means that currently nowhere in England is more than 75 miles from the sea.
If global warming continues, NOwhere will be more than 35 miles from the sea.
simple really,
Why go to the seaside when the seaside can come to you?

Answer 9

It's the "global warming" paradox.

Global warming can cause both warming and cooling.
Global warming can cause more and fewer hurricanes.
Global warming can cause both droughts and floods
Global warming can cause ice caps to melt and grow.

Global warming can do anything, and anything must be proof that man made global warming is real, and immediate action nears to happen! Mostly politicians need to restrict our freedoms and raise our taxes in order to stop so called "global warming".

Answer 10

TOTAL BOLLOX the sea produces more co2 than anything else on the planet it isn't the oil burning that's the cause its the TREE CHOPPING but not the in thing this week