Blackjack: 16 count vs dealer 10?

Question

In blackjack, if dealer is showing a 10 and I get to a 16 count after drawing a third card (say, I have 7, 5, 4 now), is it generally better to hit or stay?

Well, Vegas Matt, since you imply you ARE a card counter, riddle me this:

The index number of 16 against a 10 in most blackjack counting systems is zero. So if the deck were completely neutral you should stand, because you stand if the count is equal or exceeds the index number. Yet the basic strategy tables tell us to hit. Isn't this a contradiction?

All you other dealers and Vegas veterans are free to offer an explanation as well, of course...

Angela, Vegas Matt's comments don't bother me. He's just a smug guy who thinks his knows his game inside out. A lot of gamblers are like that.

As for basic strategy, I know it just fine. I also know basic strategy assumes your first two cards are as they are, the dealer has the designated card, and no other information is available. In the real world, however, additional information is always available. For example, even if you don't count cards, you can see the other cards on the table. For some hands, this information can be enough to change the plan called for by basic strategy. In fact, for a few borderline situations, only one card can be enough to change the best plan, even with 6 or 8 decks.

As for WHEN the strategy changes, that is a much harder question. Like obit's friend, I have tried my hand at calculating blackjack, and I am happy to see we come to about the same conclusion regarding 16 vs dealer 10. In my case, I conclude 6s, 9s, and 10s out of the shoe make the hit better, 8s leave the odds virtually unchanged, while other cards tend to make standing on 16 better. Yes, your odds are crummy regardless - you are going to lose about 77% of the hands. However, as obit concluded from the blackjack applet, if it takes you at least three cards to get to 16, more often than not it is better to stop. Of course, the way to make a more informed decision is to look at the other cards on the table and stand if you see disproportionately few 6s, 9s, and 10s.

Answer 1

Everybody here is just guessing, but the math is hard. However, I know someone who wrote a Java program to calculate this. Even with 6 decks, when I plug your 7+5+4 against dealer with 10 into her applet, I get STAY. When I try 10+6 against 10 or 9+7 against 10, I get HIT, so that is why the basic strategy is to hit.

The difference is the cards. If you have 10+6 or 9+7 against the dealer 10, then 3 high cards are out that would put you over 21. High cards (the higher the better) are also more likely to bust the dealer if the next card for the dealer is a 2 through 6. That is enough to tip the balance in favor of hitting, and that could be why the index you mention gives a different answer. If instead you have 7+5+4 against the dealer 10, then there two cards that help you and two cards that bust you. The smaller cards out of the deck also make a dealer bust more likely. In this case, going by the math, this is enough to tip the balance in favor of standing. Since combinations of three or more cards will have smaller card denominations, most of the time you get a better percentage by staying. At least, that's what the applet seems to be telling me.

Answer 2

That depends on how many other low cards have been dealt. If I've seen a bunch of other low cards, I might stand, but Basic Strategy says to hit with a 16 against a dealer 10.

You are right. IF the deck is neutral, you should stand. HOWEVER, off the top, the deck is not neutral. The odds favor the house. In the long run, you will lose more money (assuming that you are not counting cards) if you stand on a 16 than if you stand on a 16 against a dealer 10. You are pretty much screwed either way. I think the odds are a 90% chance of losing if you hit vs. 95% chance if you stand (or something like that.)

Answer 3

I dont't believe any one can count all cards, 8 decks. , you should hit hoping to get 17 or better and not busted and always assume that dealer has 17 or better when he/she is showing a 10. There are many cards left that can beat your 16. I always hit on 16 b/c I don't want to upset people who bet a lot more than i do. If all players bet evenly or not much more than you then you can stay. People(like me often with maximum bet) get upset when someone don't hit on 14 or 15 or 16 and dealer gets 20 or 21. some people play for themselves. blackjack is a team work game, take one for the team and the favor will be returned to you.

Answer 4

With a 10 value card showing for the dealer their probability for busting is 21.43%. Card counting aside, by staying on 16 against a dealers 10 you're basically saying that you're ok with losing that hand 78.57% of the time. If you hit it odds are 62% that you'll bust so statistically you're guaranteed to lose 16.57% more often by standing than by hitting. The two links below can help. The first gives you the odds, the second gives to a formula.

Answer 5

If you're counting cards, sometimes it can be a better play to stand. Since you asked this question you're obviously not a card counter, so always hit.

You would know this if you memorized basic strategy. If you don't want to lose your money in 5 minutes at a casino blackjack table, you need to learn basic strategy.

Answer 6

i would hit because there are 9 different cards that will beat ur 16, so the chances of u winning are about 1/3, and odds. odds are almost always on the dealers side. and anyway, the dealer willkeep hitting till he breaks 16.

Answer 7

hit, dealer has strong odds of getting 20/21.

Answer 8

Statistically it is better to hit. It will also depend on how many decks are being used. On a single deck, with the example you have given, it would have to depend on how far into the deck you are and what other cards have been exposed.

Answer 9

Go ahead & hit. And Matt, this question indicates a desire to learn & understand basic strategy.

Answer 10

hit