Why is Tropical Storm Noel still projected to hit the Bahamas when it is heading WNW at the moment?

Question

We live on a small island in the Bahamas so obviously we've been following the storm closely and I am puzzled why after such a long time of the storm moving toward Cuba in a WNW direction that the anticipated path still shows the path as NNE? Are there some forces at work here that would push this in that direction at this point? I guess I'm saying how do they know where it is going?

Answer 1

They base their projections on the movements of the winds and currents that would carry the storm in a particular direction. They are not always acurate projections, but it would still be a good idea to prepare for the worst. Good luck.

Answer 2

In general, storms tend to stay over water in preference to over land. That is why here in Seattle rain follows the inlets and bays onto land; why storms miss Bloomington, Indiana, because lakes to the NE and SE of the city draw the storms, and why Noel is expected to turn NE.

The reason is that the air over water has more water vapor, therefore less oxygen and nitrogen, and therefore lower pressure.

Answer 3

Obviously you should ask the they you are talking about. Just as obviously they don't know, do they? If they knew, Katrina never would have done the damage that was done. No one knows. Just educated guesses.