global warming super hurricanes?

Question

So where are the super hurricanes the scientists and climatologists predicted? And dont tell me they were kidding or werent being serious when they made the prediction. I read weather channel blogs and saw it on the news, they werent kidding

Katrina was Cat. 3!!!!!!! Look at 2006-2007 hurricane seasons, were they strong??? Think not

I think it's funny that during 2005 everyone was all worried about the future, and now everyone's making excuses why it didnt turn out that way

Answer 1

Yes, "global warming" was blamed for the increased number of hurricanes in 2005. We were told then to expect more hurricanes in the future because of global warming.

In 2006, there were fewer hurricanes than predicted. We were told by the experts that the reason why we got fewer hurricanes was because of global warming.

No matter what happens, it's because of global warming.

Answer 2

Katrina was an amazing hurricane b/c it crossed over the FL, keys and was like a cat2 then hit those extreme warm gulf waters then bumped to a cat5 then downgraded to a cat3 when it made landfall. Ok, people freak out about Katrina b/c of the damage it caused. Well if a hurricane hits a city that already below sea level what's gonna happen? HMM? well we saw what happened. The reason the hurricane season of 2005 was so strong is b/c we were in a La Nina cycle. Which means no upper air wind shear crosses the US and the Atlantic to rip these storms up or turn them to the north. The 2006-2007 Season we were in an El Nino. Which means we had the wind shear to rip storms up or turn them to the north. Every time any storm reaches the Gulf it is going to intensify. The Gulf waters are much warmer than the open Atlantic ocean due to lack of circulation. That's why if you go to the beach in Alabama versus Florida the water is murkier. So warmer waters equals more intense storms. If you notice the cat 5's that we had this season all made it into the Gulf waters. So yes their predictions were wrong but they will get one right as soon as we have another La Nina period during hurricane season. Then any storm that reaches the Gulf will cause more damage and be more intense. We will have a season similar to 2005 when we are in a La Nina pattern b/c the waters in the ocean are warming up. So just sit back and wait they'll get a prediction right eventually!!! It's just we cannot acurately forecast the El Nino/La Nina pattern yet.

Answer 3

What, Katrina wasn't strong enough for you?

"The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. It officially started June 1, 2007, and will last until November 30, 2007, dates that conventionally delimit the period when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin during the year. However, the formation of Subtropical Storm Andrea on May 9, 2007 marked an earlier beginning to the season. On August 20 Hurricane Dean was upgraded to category 5 status and made landfall at that strength on the Mexican Yucatán Peninsula.

When Hurricane Felix reached category 5 status, 2007 became one of four recorded Atlantic seasons that have had more than one category 5 storm; the others being 1960, 1961 and 2005, and the only time two Atlantic hurricanes have ever made landfall at Category 5 strength in the same season."

*edit* Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane. It decreased to Category 3 by the time it reached land, but it was Category 5.

It was the sixth-strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded and the third-strongest hurricane on record that made landfall in the United States. Sorry, but the data proves you wrong. Try gcnp58's exercise and you'll see for yourself. But he's right, you won't do it because you know you'll be proven wrong.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina

Answer 4

It is strange how the climate models predicted stronger hurricane seasons, but the last two years have been a bust. But we are supposed to trust that those very same climate models will be able to predict the climate decades into the future.

Answer 5

You have to distinguish a few extreme guys (like the "skeptics") from the vast majority of the scientific community. Weather channel blogs and the news aren't going to help you, you actually have to spend time educating yourself on the issues.

The vast majority of scientists agree the hurricane issue is not settled science.

Great book about this. 5 stars on Amazon. It doesn't take a position, just reports on the controversy. If you actually want to know what's up this book will tell you.

Storm World: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle Over Global Warming

http://www.amazon.com/Storm-World-Hurricanes-Politics-Warming/dp/0151012873/ref=sr_1_6/104-0984746-6935131?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1193692230&sr=1-6

Answer 6

There are studies that reveal hurricanes may be worse in cooler climates.

http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO2ScienceB2C/articles/V10/N26/C1.jsp

This is what was learned in another study over the past 270 years:

"The researchers report that the average frequency (number per year) of major Atlantic hurricanes "decreased gradually from the 1760s until the early 1990s, reaching anomalously low values during the 1970s and 1980s." More specifically, they note that "a gradual downward trend is evident from an average of ~4.1 (1775-1785) to ~1.5 major hurricanes [per year] during the late 1960s to early 1990s," and that "the current active phase (1995-2005) is unexceptional compared to the [many] other high-activity periods of ~1756-1774, 1780-1785, 1801-1812, 1840-1850, 1873-1890 and 1928-1933." Hence, they conclude that the recent ratcheting up of major Atlantic hurricane activity appears to be simply "a recovery to normal hurricane activity"

http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO2ScienceB2C/articles/V10/N27/C1.jsp

Answer 7

I kno that it's ABSURD!!!!!!.......but don't get intimidated by weather news......my prediction it won't come in at least 4or 5 years....i wouldn't say more than that because of the fact of Hurricane Catrina and other hurricanes in that following year....climatologists say such things because they want to make people aware about the future.....and say that it'll happen now.........but u might just be right.......i say this is an interesting question!!!!!!

Answer 8

As an exercise, challenge yourself. Calculate the fraction of all hurricanes or typhoons that form each year that go on to become super-typhoons or major hurricanes (this information is readily available online, wikipedia for instance). Then see if that fraction has increased significantly over the last couple of decades. What you will find if you do that exercise, which you won't because hey, who wants to know they're wrong, is that there is evidence that of the storms that do form each year, more are going on to become very large, which is really what Kerry Emmanuel said.

Don't worry though, just tell yourself the result of the simple analysis I suggest above is statistics and/or that the sample length isn't long enough to draw any conclusions and that all the people who understand climate and hurricane dynamics way better than you are out there yanking your chain for sport.

Answer 9

'experts' have been making dire predictions since the year dot.
as soon as we actually have a 'super hurricane', they'll say,'We told you so!', and blame our nasty habits of course.
as an earlier answer says, weather prediction is not an exact science, the same goes for climate.
ps: the worse the predictions, the better the ratings.

Answer 10

You seem to be forgetting all the cold water that is currently entering the oceans from the poles.