what happened with global warming and hurricanes?

Question

we all were told that global warming would produce more and stronger hurricanes. Well the last two years this has proven to be false since there has hardly been any activity this year and last year. So what happened with this whole hurricane business and global warming? Oh this link below says that this year could be the least active on record to.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

Answer 1

Yes, we have the same number of hurricanes as the 1970's when there was a short cooling period.

Using this information, I think we're seeing the start of a new cooling cycle being ushered in.

Watch - Let me make this prediction - Now that the number of hurricanes are decreasing, people will use this as "proof" that global warming is real.

Answer 2

Global warming isn't about one off events, what happens in one country or what happens in a short space of time such as a season or a year - it's about long term trends. Climatologists and the like don't make predictions about what will happen in any given year, they use a baseline extending for 30 years or more (1960 to 1990 is the common default) and make comparisions for the coming decades and centuries. We know that the number and intensity of hurricanes is increasing, that's something that no-one can deny. This is a trend over many years and within any trend there are peaks and troughs - that's normal. No reputable climatologist stated that the 2005 hurricane season was caused by global warming, similarly no reputable skeptic claims that 2006 disproves global warming. Those with an understanding of the subject don't focus on single years, to do so is to deliberately distort the evidence by being selective. The media may focus on a single year as it can substantiate their argument whichever side of the debate they are on. But then the media aren't scientists and convey the message that gets across their viewpoint and is most likely to attract readers / viewers. No-one can say just how much effect global warming is having on hurricanes and other storms. The numbers and intensities of such events are increasing and have been for as far back as records go. Global warming has a part to play, it would be foolish to claim otherwise as that would fly in the face of what we already know about the formation and behaviour of hurricanes. Just how big a role global warming plays will become more apparent in time as further studies are conducted.

Answer 3

You need to look at your reference. It indicates that this is the lowest number of storms during the past 30 years (climate is typically recorded as the 30 year average of the measure you are looking at). There was a period of lots of hurricanes early during the last century, then the number dropped for reasons scientist have been trying to determine (not shown on the graphs). The numbers have started climbing during the past 30 years and again, scientist are trying to figure out how all of this is connected (El Ninio, La Ninia, hurricanes, and GW?). A single hurricane or season cannot not prove or disprove GW exist, but is the increased number and intensity during the past 30 years are consistent with what experts in climatology expect if GW is occurring (can clearly see and upward trend on the graphs in your reference - still not proof - just consistent with GW theory).

We have had 24 storms this year that have killed quite a few. Mexico is flooded in an area the size of Belgium and hurricane Noel is now in the Atlantic moving way from land and not threaten the southern US coast. A relatively calm year for the US is a blessing. Don't look a gift-horse in the mouth! The events do not prove GW any more than they can disprove it. There have been more intense storms over the past few years and an increase in numbers. Although this does not prove GW, it is what you could expect to find if it is occurring. Look and ALL the effects together (melting ice at the North and South poles, earlier greening, thawing permafrost, sea-surface temperatures, species moving further north (some birds at this point), increased number and intensity of storms (one season doesn't influence the trend to much - it take numerous years to do this), more intense droughts and flooding, more heat waves).

Scientist are still looking for a clear signal as proof (ice melt may be provide that), but the 11 year sun-spot cycle is not what causing the "natural" climate variation. I have never even seen this discussed in the scientific literature - but I confess I also have explicitly looked for this. Most SCIENTIST now agree that significant portion of GW is caused by humans National Academy of Science, EPA, and IPCC). This is NOT proven - just a consensus among scientist. The REASON this consensus is important is because scientist feel if the world waits for CONCLUSIVE scientific proof, we'll be so deeply committed to such a RAPID RATE of change, that we can't even slow the bus down.

Answer 4

The 1st article is skeptical about global warming. Even so, their graph showing a flat line of hurricane energy actually shows a dip in the 70s. As global warming nonbelievers like to point out, that was a cool time. I also wish the graph was a bar graph, with each season having it's own bar. Because it seems to show a spike in energy every 3 years, look out in 2008?

We are already above last year's number of named storms (Names up to Issac, 10 storms including an unnamed one they "discovered" after the season was over.) This year does include "Andrea", and has 1 less Hurricane (4 vs 5) so far. This year, we are up to Noel, and there is still time in the season. Each season has some interesting footnotes.

I think warmer water does increase hurricanes. But after the
record 2005 season, skeptics were sure to harp on any average season as a decrease.

Answer 5

Wow, dana, your links provide great information. Two of the articles are from 2005 when GW alarmists were predicting doom and gloom hurricanes due to GW. The other is a study where the scientists have "smoothed" and "recalibrated" the data. None of them are hardly ringing endorsements for GW affecting hurricanes. What happened to all of the articles saying that GW actually suppresses hurricanes?

The simple fact is that no one fully understands our environment. The alarmists in their ignorance and arrogance claim to be able to take a blip of data from the history of the planet and then predict dire consequences. All the while, the leaders of their movement continue to produce carbon emissions far above normal humans.

It's funny how the alarmists will take a current weather pattern and claim GW is causing it even if it directly contradicts their previous claims. After 2005, all we heard was that GW was going to cause more Katrinas and Ritas. Then, after the hurricane dud in 2006 and early 2007, the alarmists claimed that GW suppresses hurricanes. My prediction is that 2008 will be a worse hurricane season than those of 2006 and 2007 (considering the low activity of those 2 years, 2008 HAS to be worse statistically speaking). And once again, GW alarmists will be claiming that GW causes more hurricanes. All the while, there has been nothing out of the ordinary about any of these years.

Answer 6

Global warming and global cooling are earth cycles that happens ever few thousand years. What was the cause of global warming that melted the ice during the iceage? There weren't any humans around then, so who gets the blame for that? The dinosaurs?

If global warming is so bad, why are the environmentalists all driving $100,000 SUV's and pickups.

Answer 7

Those people quiet down when they are proven wrong. They will be the same ones talking about global cooling in a few years.

Answer 8

And three years ago GW skeptics were clamoring to point out that hurricane activity is cyclical over a scale of decades. The point is using the last few years of data to predict a trend (by either side) is dumb.

Answer 9

For the folks that believe global warming is caused by man, truth is never an issue. Those people practice, for lack of a better term, the religion of the insane. If it's too warm, too cold, too wet, too dry, too windy, not windy enough, it's all about evil mankind destroying the planet.

Answer 10

Scientists have concluded that global warming will cause stronger hurricanes, but it will not impact how frequently they form. This has proven to be accurate.