"So do you think we are deciding too early about next Novembers presidential vote (over a year away)."

Question

Hillary and Rudy Guilani are now the leaders. WHO could be a surprise contender that could enter the race next year and take over?

Answer 1

Yes and no on the too early part.

We are currently about 70 days away from the official start of the nomination process with the Iowa Caucuses currently scheduled for January 3rd. Given the number of states that are now in January (7), the number of states on February 5th (20), the other states holding contests in February (approximately 10), and the number of states holding contests on March 4th (4) and the fact that almost all of the large states are within one of these groups, the nominees should be decided by March 5th.

Once the nominees are decided, the presidential campaign will calm down a bit until the conventions in late August.

Whether or not we are deciding too early is hard to tell. Most democracies choose the leaders of their parties a lot earlier in the campaign (and tend to be a little shorter and quieter about the selection process). They,however, keep the door open to dumping a leader and choosing a new one if the door opens. Theoretically, if something stunning was to happen between March and the end of August, the delegates might revolt and choose a different candidate, but that has not happened since we went to the current system in the early 70s.

As to the second question, it is already almost too late for anyone new to enter the race. To get in the race, you have to enter the primaries and those have deadlines for filing. Filing is now open for most of the early primaries and will be closing in several states in the next three weeks. By January 1, a new candidate could only get about 10% of the delegates, well short of the number needed to win the nomination.

I am not sure that Giuliani is the leader on the Republican side. The national numbers hide the fact that the presidential selection process is fought state-by-state, congressional district-by-congressional district. In addition, the Republican formula tends to resemble the electoral college (the same number of base delegates for each state, the same number of base delegates for each congressional district) with bonus state delegates in states that tend to elect Republicans (and winner take all in each state/congressional district). Since the state by state polls show Giuliani leading the other Republican candidates by large numbers in the Democratic states, but trailing the other Republican candidates in the Republican states, I am not sure that his national numbers translate into a projected lead in the delegates (assuming that the numbers stay the same through the actual voting). The problem is that the state-by-state numbers are so splintered between the top four candidates that I am not sure that any candidate on the Republican side is a clear front-runner.

Because the Democrats use a proportional representation scheme, and the margin is much larger in the poll, I think that it is fair to call Clinton the front-runner.

The two most likely long shot candidates of those currently in the race are Huckabee and Richardson, but they need to make their move in Iowa and New Hampshire soon or they will be done.

Answer 2

Well, if we're considering that outside of Guiliani and Clinton, anyone else getting the nomination would be a suprise, then I'd say for the Democrats, it would be Obama, Edwards and possibly Richardson. For the Republicans, I'd say Thomson, Romney, McCain and possibly Huckabee. I'd say everyone else is a true darkhorse. In the Republicans, none of the darkhorses is likely to break out. But in the Democrats, I think Biden is a possibility, maybe Dodd too.

Answer 3

Once we start holding the primaries in JANUARY we will have the nominee by the end of the month at most. So we will be stuck with that nominee no matter what till november. Its really annoying. We are going to get campaign ads during christmas.

Answer 4

I think Mitt is the political sleeper in this election. Mitt has a lot of experience from being a Governor. Barrack doesn't have the money to beat Hilary. I believe that the Republicans will win. Rudy is very likable with common sense,and some degree if intelligence when speaking to the public which Bush lacks. Mitt has a lot of experience, has quick comebacks, is very intelligent.

Answer 5

Without question it is too early to think we know who is going to be the presidential nominees next year. For the Dems I think Obama still has a good chance. For the Reps, I think Mitt Romney. I didn't think he had it in him, but I wouldn't be surprised if he got the nod at this point.

Answer 6

well 270 is the magic number and the primaries are starting in a little over 60 days, so deciding president yes , deciding who you will vote for in the primaries , better start thinking about it.

Answer 7

Remember last election it looked like Howard Dean had it locked up until his memorable melt-down and Kerry got the nomination. Who is running really will not matter for another 6 months.

Answer 8

Jeb Bush for republicans, Al Gore for democrats. I don't know how long they would keep the lead, but they would get the lead for a short time.

Answer 9

There are no leaders. No one has won a single delegate.

Answer 10

I'm still hoping President Palmer from "24" ends up as our real President.