Is Global Warming happening faster than we think?

Question

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7058074.stm

Answer 1

Actually, global warming is happening slower than we thought. I will explain in a moment.

Your link discusses the fact CO2 is rising more quickly than we expected. But scientists also know that atmospheric CO2 has a logarithmic warming effect. In other words, each new molecule of CO2 in the air causes less warming than the last molecule. But because CO2 was increasing exponentially, many people thought the effect would be linear. In fact, 1998 is still the warmest year on record and recently scientists learned that measurements of global warming actually exceed reality. Let me explain.

Anthony Watts, a broadcast meteorologist, is leading an effort to photograph and document the quality of all the weather stations in the GHCN network. He started in the US and now 1/3 of all US stations have been photographed and graded for quality on a CRN 1-5 scale. Only CRN 1-2 stations meet the minimum requirements of the NOAA. Only 15% of the stations photographed are CRN 1 or CRN 2. 95% of the poor quality stations have a warm bias. Some of the are positioned on top of parking lots! Estimates are that up to 1/2 of the observed warming is not real but an artifact of these poorly sited stations.

You can see the photographs here:
http://surfacestations.org/

And view Watts' presentation here:
http://gallery.surfacestations.org/UCAR-slides/index.html

Regarding Bob's link to Arctic Sea ice melt, you should know that Arctic Sea ice melts cyclically. It happened in 1905 and 1944. During those years more than 60 ships passed through the Northwest Passage. So far, no ships have made that voyage yet. Both times, the sea ice came back the next winter. Laxon studied the Arctic Sea and determined that the melt was due to dynamic forcings (wind and ocean current) and not thermal or radiative forcings of global warming.
http://www.cpom.org/research/swl-nature.pdf

Regarding Trevor's statement below that 2005 was the warmest year on record, the IPCC disagrees. The IPCC uses the data set kept by Climatic Research Unit at University of East Anglia. Clearly, 1998 is the warmest year on record as you can see from the graphs here:
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif

Answer 2

It's a good question and it's one that gets asked quite a lot and the answer is both yes and no.

By their very nature scientists tend to err on the side of caution and many of the reports that have been produced in the past have been somewhat conservative in their estimates of how fast global warming will occur. As a consequence many of the estimates have, and are, being revised upward. Remember that climatology is a young science and we're learning a lot as we go along. With many scientific advances and far greater computer power we can now make more accurate predictions than in the past.

There is another side and that is the media. Often they have sensationalised things and focused more on 'worst case scenarios' rather than probable outcomes. In this respect it could be argued that global warming is happening slower than some people have been led to believe - witness the number of comments on here from people thinking global warming will mean the end of humanity and the death of the planet.

Although 2007 isn't yet finished it is on track to be the hottest year on record (although I suspect it will finish as the 2nd hottest just behind 2005).

We can measue the speed by which temperatures are rising by comparing them to a long term average, this gives us an anomaly. 10 years ago that anomaly had a value of 0.481, today it has a value of 0.607 meaning that temperatures now are rising 25% faster than they were 10 years ago. We'd always expected there would be an increase but not by as much as there has been.

Answer 3

Yes.
It's not really controversial anymore because the evidence for global warming just keeps building up and it is evident in nature. People that live in the midwest and the north are going to have a warmer winter than usual. Antarctica has lost a lot of its ice-mass as well as many glaciers. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is at its all time high and is only growing. It's not that we haven't known about it for the last 70 years, it's just that the effects are much more visible now because of the drastic increases in human activity within the past 20 years.

Answer 4

Apparently the answer is yes. In addition to this finding, there are several indicators that point to an acceleration in global warming. Most noteably,
>recent data show that large areas o fthe oceans are reaching the "saturation point" at which they can no llonger absorb more CO2. Much of the CO2 increase has been moderated because oceans have absorbed a portion--but that absorbtion rate is falling rapidly--so more of the CO2 emissions are remaining in the aatmosphere
>the rate of emissions is accelerating (partly due to industriaization in India, China, and elsewhere).
>the widely reproted jump in the melting rate of polar ice.--

Answer 5

I am quite sure that global warming is happening a lot slower than you think it is. Aparently we've had about 1 degree over the last hundred years.

The fact that you are so alarmed indicates you think it's happening a lot faster than that.

Answer 6

I think Global warming, is happening the natural speed, that it is mean`t too be doing.

Answer 7

its exponential at this point let me explain.. if its 2 times bad now next year its going to be 4 times bad the year after that 8 times bad.. see the pattern we have gone past the point of no return and nobody wants to admit it.. 1000,s of millions of tons more pollutants just went into the air as this was typed and no effort at all to cut these poisons back is happening.. the government says it would hurt our economy too much to cut back.. great lotx of dead people but economy is surviving... beyond stupid go ask a polar bear

Answer 8

I think global warming is total autter poop! The climate is just changing.
The world is just over reacting.

Answer 9

Yes, as man think fast on technical growth, GW happens fast.

Answer 10

I think I would rephrase that question to... is Global warming exponential? Probably...